PivotPoint

Agreed. You can see the inter mountain ridge here better at 250, but if we’re talking entry point on the west coast and exit on the east coast it’s fairly zonal, with the caveat of a northern dominant flow. Not saying all panels are like that but that’s what I saw at h5 and 250 when I looked at the 6z gfs

I checked h5 and vort panels. I also zoomed out to include all of northern hem to see epo, NAO, west pac, and SER. Didn’t think think the overnight runs were very inspiring. Yes it is. Or pretty close to it. Flow is pretty west to east. Here’s an educational graphic for you

That look doesn’t inspire me. It screams zonal flow as wentz mentioned above. Anytime we rely on NS waves to cross over the Allegheny to deliver us snow, we lose lift and moisture and are left with flurries or maybe an inch (if were lucky. We need our block to retro East a bit and allow a PNA yo build. Cycle that block back down as a wave gains steam out of the central plains/gulf coast and we’re in business.

Oh, I’m not giving up. I’m with ya. We’re going to get some flat wave NS stuff soon, at least that looks as much right now. Hopefully we reorganize that west coast ridge and activate the SS as we progress through February. Feels like forever since feb has been rocking. We’re due

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

This is interesting. Our issue now is one I wouldn’t have expected. You can see below that this h5 looks like a decent setup - ridging out west, trough diving east and some confluence up from our departing system. But our trough has no energy to work with and doesn’t dig deep enough and we get a dry and cold solution. But then (the interesting part) we this crazy ridging and almost full blocking in the pacific that forces all theses NS pieces of energy into the southwest - even so much as to move energy east-west and capture the energy UNDERNEATH the west coast block. Crazy The frame before this you seen the NS energy decent south then merge with SS energy and little backtrack through the southwest. What does this do - it pumps up riding and heights ahead of the flow creating and even greater shear factory across the middle of the country. Not allowing for any amplification or spacing to develop between vorts. Finally as we move through time you can still see the intense west coast ridge/blocking causing a break in the NS energy as it try’s to make its way east. Again, it shoots energy straight down the west coast and pumps heights to the east. It’s a vicious cycle even though we have good blocking to our north, with a 50/50 at times. We just have no mechanism to allow NS and SS to interact. In my mind (to fix this) we need the huge AK ridge to reposition and create a split flow scenario where the angle of the NS is more oriented BC to central plains, then AK straight down the backside of the west coast where we lose all of energy and potential for interaction. I think a reshuffle of that ridge, and a couple warm days for us as that breaks down and hopefully reloads in a more ideal spot would do wonders IF we can also cycle our blocking up top. Perhaps one of those big pacific storms could do its dirty work in the PAC and reset that h5 look on the west coast, a bit

Wait... your saying day 10 and beyond looks good? Stop the presses! This is shocking news lol

Nah man, it's the one after that one. And the "real" storm is the next one after the next one after the next one. Winter 2023, it's gonna be ridic

Got it. Thanks

Is this not technically blocking

Yup, just said that above. I agree. Good point

I never said they should look the same as those features I was just making the point that those dominant atmospheric features (which are more constant, yes) shows in the mean. A slight mean pressure down south that represents are little blue area could simply just be a blip from one ensemble run to the next, which guess what, (earth shattering news coming) it probably is just a blip! So relax. Differing opinions are ok, and realize there HAVE been stronger long range, mslp ensemble looks down in the gulf. NEVER said once that this particular look wasn’t good, just said it’s not a strong signal. Why are we still talking about this? It’s all minutia anyways and pure speculation

I’m making the point, PSU, that the 318 ensemble mean low heights in the gulf are great, awesome, but I’ve seen maps where there is a stronger signal there. That’s all I’m saying. Geeze, you guys are wound too tight right now. We also ALL KNOW that it probably WONT happen anyways, so my point is even more valid. Yea, the look is great but we’ve also said that 646,876,239 times in the past month and what do we have to show for it. Ive have seen lower (and darker) blue down there before — would you disagree?

And also. If you read my previous posts I said that I liked the overall “futuristic” setup in the LR. I was pointing out that the mean heights in the southern tier, even for an resemble mean, was not highly suggestive. Which that look could change too. I never said it won’t happen or isn’t going to happen. Simply look at the strong features on the map. That wasn’t one of them

Yep, understand that. But if you look at the intensity of the western ridge and the low heights off in the eastern Atlantic, those are strong signals (and means as well) for those features to be present in 13 days. Means work both ways, and the strength of those mean features is stronger this more reliable, imo to come to fruition then a barely present mean low look in the souther tier

To be fair, that’s not what I’d call a “strong” signal southern lows. It’s intensity it’s pretty paltry, comparatively

The para has that 240 time frame as well as the euro showing a low somewhere in the vicinity of the Tennessee valley and the gulf. So, that’s a good sign considering gfs-reg and gem have a signal there too Yea, I noticed that. I think the ensemble guidance is starting to converge on the blocking and building heights out west. I’m starting to be intrigued now. I never bought this early pattern development with the PAC look at western pac ridge. Now signs of epo ridge and west based block... I’m seeing a light around Jan 22-31

Exactly. I also think a building epo ridge will help us cutoff that pac flow. And if our block can retrograde a bit more west then we can definitely score then. I saw hints on the eps of the blocking progression. End of January could ACTUALLY be a go or able period, imo. Like, no no more pushing out in time.

I said a week ago. The potential fail potential with the upcoming “good” pattern was fast flow shredding sws. Psu remembers. I’m like halfway decent at this hobby now

Corrected it for you

Oh, I get what you’re saying now. But my point was is that if there’s no phasing then those lower heights act as confluence as opposed to amplification. My point was if it made not going to phase into the SS sw then I’d prefer it were out of the way all together.

Tracking sucks right now. 18z gfs with a big whiff. Has zero snow through Jan 26. I guess we’re building up cred for next years massive HECS. This blows

Agreed.. and I’m not sure I gathered what you were saying earlier. You were saying that the upcoming h5 setup in the 7-10 day range is more indicative of how we fail then how we usually succeed? Because of the TPV being displaced this far south? I understand that we don’t want the TPV centered in the southern central CA but not sure what your explanation was for a ridge out west and lower heights in the southern tier being a fail setup. Seemed like the heights around the lakes were keeping our trough from turning negative and moving up the coast. What am I missing

Days 7-16 you say? What could go wrong

The good thing is it’s only 7ish days away. Not super fantasy land. We just need to get rid of these low heights around the lakes and move a stout high to our NE. This h5 is pretty darn close to a thumping though