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PivotPoint

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  1. PivotPoint
    Might want to check that. Not looking great. Warm pushing west. Pretty different from last run
  2. PivotPoint
    I saw hrrr do well with 2016 storm. But even my goldfish got that one right, so eh I don’t own a goldfish, actually
  3. PivotPoint
    Here come the radar hallucinations: Way more moisture then depicted this hour... look at that moisture convection to the gulf! (This is a bingo card, right)
  4. PivotPoint
    100%. That’s it
  5. PivotPoint
    Good news is I think many of the models have been hinting at least some sort of backside love, albeit not very significant. Even 1” would at least make the ground white (for most). I’ve seen the 3k have it, hrrr, hrdps, and a some of the gfs runs. I dunno. Trying to find a silver lining
  6. PivotPoint
    That’s not horrible for Leesburg if that’s the warmest panel, surface might be a bit above freezing but banding would take care of that. Not as bad as I thought. I call bs. Basically top corner of dc is 47 and ffx county at 32. That’s like maybe 30 miles in a straight line. No way it’s a 17 degree difference. No way
  7. PivotPoint
    That’s a great story. Tell us more about your kinship with Mappy lol StormTrackers right.
  8. PivotPoint
    I’m not passive aggressive I say exactly what I mean. You of all people should know that. Or learn what the phrase actually means brother
  9. PivotPoint
    I got you. You’re right. Sorry, It’s just almost like sometimes it seems like she’s jumps at the chance to create issues. Then if she doesn’t like what you have to say back, she “edits” you. It’s bs man. People don’t like that. It’s not cool
  10. PivotPoint
    Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on
  11. PivotPoint
    60% of the time, it works... every time
  12. PivotPoint
    And at least we have the WRF-ARW2, lol
  13. PivotPoint
    3k is an improvement for dc positive snow depth 18z 12z
  14. PivotPoint
    I wouldn’t go so far as to say “most”, ugh
  15. PivotPoint
    LP track did shift a bit west. But I feel like the thermal profiles didn’t really shift west with it like I thought. Making me feel like the slight track shift is having a marginal effect. Maybe the fact the system is becoming more progressive means less warm air is advected at 850/925 with no rapid deepening like earlier runs?
  16. PivotPoint
    CMC wasn’t a great run but models are kinda jumpy right now. I still feel like there’s some wiggle room with temps. Tonight lows and any cloud cover tomorrow to keep temps low would help. Won’t help mid levels but will help possibly keep a little more frozen action longer
  17. PivotPoint
    Hrdps stops here but nice deform band, possible follow-up on the back side for dc area. Maybe not a lot but decent run. Still a lot more to come for norther folks after this, obviously More to come for northerns, perhaps wrap around or trailing follow-up
  18. PivotPoint
    Next panels even better but we might start mixing here...
  19. PivotPoint
    For what. It’s worth hrdps starts out hot and heavy, but most area loses 540 off the bat
  20. PivotPoint
    I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly”
  21. PivotPoint
    Better than 12z? Seems like it but can’t recall. 540 seems better with good returns overhead dc/md line
  22. PivotPoint
    Rgem and gfs technically ticked the snow line back se a bit. Didn’t check soundings but it was at least better not to see it continue to eat away at the fall line. Hope the euro delivers for us
  23. PivotPoint
    Thanks for the update. Otherwise we all would speculated the storm must of trended so well that it broke the computer
  24. PivotPoint
    The ensembles still have a quite a bit of variance. This track is not set yet for sure. I would still err on the side of a east solution, however there’s is not definitive consensus here. Hope, I guess Great explanation. And if your last qpf map is close to accurate and that sounding is snow, then yea, dc can get 2-4”. But to your point it would only pan out this way with a back end solution. That’s a low percentage play usually speaking around here
  25. PivotPoint
    Man look at those 70s off the coast of Carolina. I have a feeling this thing is going to be juiced at the very least. Whoever keeps temps is going to get a qpf walloping
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