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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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Would seem that the 12z GEFS and the 12z EURO OP runs today SUGGEST that Days 8-10 could be a threat window for our region for wintry precip

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Would seem that the 12z GEFS and the 12z EURO OP runs today SUGGEST that Days 8-10 could be a threat window for our region for wintry precip

None for @C.A.P.E. though. :lol:

Fun tracking times ahead! I hope anyway. That first storm OBS thread will be LIT. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

ill take a 2000 repeat again...that was a glorious couple of weeks and its usually better than 90% of the winters we usually get

I would take the results of course. What I meant is a repeat of that years base state pattern would be unlikely to produce as good a result. We got lucky and hit in every potential in an otherwise crap year. Raging +AO all 3 months and not even a good PAC. It stands out as a fluke Nina simply because we got lucky imo. 

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The latest EPS is more in line with the overnight GEFS. Not as aggressive pushing southward with the initial cold dump reserving more energy for an eastward push. Thus we are seeing a better breakdown of the higher heights (WAR) moving forward through the extended. Somewhat subtle differences from the overnight ESP run when looking at the 7 day mean at the end of the extended (pretty close to the overnight GEFS look) but they mean the difference between a Meh look and a Hmmmm.... look.

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Despite the Euro Deterministic eroding the cold air quickly at the day 9-10 time frame with the southern system coming out, there ECM does a good job signaling how persistent and deep the CAD wedge is. This is important because the current setup is a strong isentropic upglide signature with southerly flow aloft with north/northeast flow positioned at the surface due to the surface ridge over the northeast. At range, globals will will struggle with handling any kind of pronounced CAD, but means on the ensembles will give a better depiction. Below is a gif from the ECM showing 2m T anomalies (deg C). Notice how strong the wedge sig on this one. With H85 winds directed out of the south, there would be a moderation above the deck, so it's a classic look of snow to mix to zr to potential rain pending latitude. We know how our climo works. I agree with WxUSAF, that signature would not scour the cold that fast. That's got winter wx written all over it. Only 8-9 days away! ;)

1577527171_ECM_2mTAnomaly.thumb.gif.d584bd4a9455d62282dc9100d18eda3a.gif

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! :D 

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

Just some numbers you can add for your reference.

Snowfall in one location can be very fluke but in the last 30 years 9/30 featured a widespread 10”+ event over a significant portion of our region. That’s exactly 30%. Going back to 1950 it’s 21/70. That’s also exactly 30%!  

1 time we went 8 years between storms 

1 time 7 years

1 time 5 years

4 times  3 years. 

5 times 2 years 

4 times 1 year 

5 times we had back to back years with big snowstorms 

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6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Is it the MJO going into phase 2 that's protecting us from the positive arctic teleconnections?

Maybe but we are warming for a couple days as it spikes. Heights then rise at the high latitudes. After that of the AO goes extremely positive we would likely warm again but by then we are way outside the the range guidance is reliable. 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just some numbers you can add for your reference.

Snowfall in one location can be very fluke but in the last 30 years 9/30 featured a widespread 10”+ event over a significant portion of our region. That’s exactly 30%. Going back to 1950 it’s 21/70. That’s also exactly 30%!  

1 time we went 8 years between storms 

1 time 7 years

1 time 5 years

4 times  3 years. 

5 times 2 years 

4 times 1 year 

5 times we had back to back years with big snowstorms 

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken :D Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

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15 day EPS snow mean is 2 inches from NW DC line Northward.  About 20 percent of the individual members look good as well with a couple happy hour homeruns thrown in.....lets see if this is a trend starter or a head fake but best look I have seen this year.

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken :D Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

But couldn’t that also mean we’re due to break the streak?  That’s the problem with the we’re due index. But there is some truth to the fact we usually don’t go more than 2/3 years without a good snowstorm. So if you want to hug that I won’t stop you. 

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On 12/3/2019 at 5:11 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks for sharing. Everyone has an opinion, and he seems to know his stuff. That being said, no one truly knows. Ever. Op runs end up wrong a lot in the LR. Ens runs are marginally better. I am content to just sit back and see how things roll going forward. It is what it is, and the pattern evolution seems particularly volatile now, probably a bit more so than normal. Simply put, we just cannot know.

His posts are written in the king james version! 

 

Btw...what happened to the gfs fv3...it used to give us tons of modeled snow?

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Looks like the euro and gfs ops are focused on two different systems for the D9 system. 

Euro takes the ull off the west coast (hr 72) and  leaves behind a piece.  That system traverses the south and becomes our storm. 

GFS absorbs that ull into the main trough that is the cutter several days before.  But, the gfs brings in a totally dif ull into cali and this eventually becomes our storm.  I like the euro idea better as it is faster and more likely to catch the cold...but it falls right into the old euro bias.  If that is  still a thing?

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28 minutes ago, Ji said:

Worst modeled cad since a week before pd2

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

Hopefully we get something out of it and it isn't wasted. It is not perfect but close enough for some excitement. 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

Yea man, I'm interested in the entire period once we get past warm rain. It's an unusual pattern with both streams burping shortwaves with split flow. The tpv is so big it creates like a quasi 50/50 with compressed flow to our north and general storm track is more W-E than what we typically see with unblocked progressive flow. 

Thing is... do we believe it? Imho- biggest risk is everything evolving into a more typical progressive flow with tracks to our west and cold running away before precip arrives. I'd be thrilled with a 1-3/2-4 mixed event. Having an event in the front half of Dec can be a sign of decent winter. 

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Here's a visual showing what I was trying to explain. We're seeing ens converge in this general idea mid month.  I'd be perfectly fine with this setup anytime during met winter. 

500h_anom.nh.png

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47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

lol i have totally different desires in December and they are very low...just enough snow/ice to cover the grass and snow on the christmas lights with cardinals flying and stuff. So yea..1-3 would be great....just want a brief live hallmark movie scene

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@Maestrobjwa I know you have an interest in this, I bring you a couple short posts from 33, one from a very informed member, the other from a met.   

From Bring-Back 1962-63

Low solar "can" be associated with colder winters.  More often the coldest winters tend to be just after the solar minimum.  We are right at the minimum right now.  There is usually a run of 3 winters which "can" be influenced and any combo of 0, 1, 2 or all 3 can see colder patterns. 

sunspot_data_2002_2014.png

The last minimum was in 2009 and there was a triple hit.  In the UK (and Western Europe) we had a cold winter in 2008/9, 2009/10 and the coldest Dec since 1890 in 2010/11 (although the 2nd half of that winter was mild).

From Analog96 

DT was talking about that ( this might be a protracted min ) and how it could impact NEXT winter, as well.

Now, I just want to point out one thing.  Being in a solar minimum does NOT guarantee cold winters.

HOWEVER, it biases everything toward colder. 

Atmospheric indices/teleconnections, etc, still rule the atmospheric response.

BUT in a solar minimum, cold teleconnections will verify colder than otherwise, and warm teleconnections would verify "less" warm.

Teleconnections that favor average temperatures would probably result in a bit cooler than average.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol i have totally different desires in December and they are very low...just enough snow/ice to cover the grass and snow on the christmas lights with cardinals flying and stuff. So yea..1-3 would be great....just want a brief live hallmark movie scene

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

He forgot he was on American...he was still in Jay's Wintry Mix mode when he posted that. Ji will be back when we get 1-3 and philly gets 6-10

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

I had to read it twice until I realized it was Ji who wrote it . Very philosophical. 

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23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

18z gefs leaves the door open for a follow up wave D7-8.  A long shot but currently the lowest hanging fruit...

uDNnEs1.jpg

A few op runs have hinted at that. 0z euro and the last couple GGEM runs I think. Key would be a bit of wave spacing so the cold air can get here and then the wave can ride along the boundary. 

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