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tombo82685

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  1. tombo82685

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    Yea it’s a bit wetter for you. I haven’t kept track of when you guys changeover. I’ve been using the 546thickness as the start looking aloft signal. So 12z run had .25 a little west of dc at 15z Wednesday. This run brings .25 into DC now with 546 thickness exactly the same
  2. tombo82685

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    You can't go off 850s with this setup, the warming is above 850 in the 700-800mb zone. Best bet is to go off 546 thickness. Once that passes you best to look for a warm nose poking in in that zone.
  3. tombo82685

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    I think this is counting sleet as snow, in fact it most likely is. Look at the meteogram off the ukmet for DC. It has one tiny window where the 850s are below zero while the rest is above zero. Yet the map above is showing 8-10 there. To me the more logical thing to use that map for is just how much qpf falls as frozen or freezing.
  4. tombo82685

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    They are colder with a flatter H5 look. Still doesn't support an all snow event but could raise the bar for more thump on the front end and also help you guys out with the overunning event beforehand. Also, the colder 850 with stronger CAD could lead to an icier look too.
  5. tombo82685

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    No, but I know USweathermodels does. Some people have that so thats what I was asking.
  6. tombo82685

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    Other way around...Here is what I mean. 0z eps from weatherbell to vista
  7. tombo82685

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    I'd be careful with those vista snow maps, they are pretty suspect. The weatherbell ones at 0z are much less than what those ones have at 0z. Does anyone have USweathermodels 6z eps snow map to compare?
  8. tombo82685

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    Nice post. That wave on the front is actually energy from the s/w that delivers a snow storm to the lakes. You can track it. This was from 18z gfs yesterday. Gfs shows how you can possibly get something middle of next week, albeit not a blockbuster. So we have our northern stream s/w diving down through canada Then that same s/w splits into 2. One piece of energy takes the northern route and delivers a snow storm to the lakes. While the other piece of energy dives down into the south. that southern piece of energy then gets stretched out along the arctic front. As of now, the energy isn't that consolidated so it's not a big qpf producer but it's something to watch down the road. If we get a stronger piece of energy along that front then it could develop an area of low pressure along the front to bring a few inches of powder.
  9. tombo82685

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Agreed, had the same thought when I saw the eps. Was starting to get a pain in my stomach when I saw the lower hgts shoot to AK but then as it progressed, at least on this run it looks like it's dumping it into the Aleutian trough which should pop a respectable pna ridge out west. You can already see the hgts starting to respond to it in the 14.5-16 day progression. At least for this run of the eps it was encouraging, and is more of a canonical nino look for February, but the LR has been bouncing a lot.
  10. tombo82685

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    Do you think that could just be a follow up wave along the front if it's strung out?
  11. tombo82685

    January 2019 Discussion II

    Here is the comparison from 0z to 6z euro. As someone mentioned slower, but there also seems to me atleast there is a bit more press down in hgts from the tpv lob swinging through
  12. tombo82685

    January 2019 Discussion II

    I know we all want what the ukmet shows, and that is a non phase with the tpv lobe that swings around. Here are the last 3 runs of the euro, including the 18z run. Can see each run of the euro continues to delay the northern stream interaction and almost tries to make it just a separate southern stream wave by itself. Can also see in response to the pac nw low the ridge in the west is losing amplitude and rolling over pushing east. Just thought I would share
  13. tombo82685

    January 2019 Discussion II

    This is what it has, I always thought it was a sounding. But I guess not.
  14. tombo82685

    January 2019 Discussion II

    weatherbell I believe has a skew-t kind of sounding
  15. tombo82685

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE

    Yup, those WAA snows can certainly have an over performing snow band. Thats where your best shot of good ratios would be too as you would get better lift in the DGZ combined with cold air a loft.
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