tombo82685

That's absolutely solid Mike, definitely will be using that.

Scott, is this the area at 30mb that you are talking about the warming? going from this to this

yea 2001-2002 was horrible, only 4 inches of snow for philly that year. 3rd warmest on record.

Its going ot be interesting to see how that plays out. The mjo forcing is going to want to turn the east warmer, so it will be a battle.

it seems like the first week of February is almost a guarantee always for snow. If you look back at the last ten years prob 80 % of the time there has been a storm. Its basically like saying in early September the tropics are going to heat up

What do you look at to determine that there may a west based -nao developing?

I ran it against the 1950-1995 average, when i did it for the 30 yr avg from 81 to present it was better, but still squash weather.

Pretty much a cutter pattern with the se ridge basking in glory if you run it against the 30 yr avg since 81

that is it

These are my thoughts on where i think this pattern is heading for the next 2 weeks. I'm siding with euro ens right now. As you can see from the global picture for 3 days from now, the tropical systems that are recurving are actually causing a -epo to form, with a split flow forming on the west coast. With a cutoff low over the southwest and ridging from the northwest pacific coast into canada/alaska. Now, i think the euro ens mean is the way to go here. This day ten euro ens mean h5 setup. With the response to the recurving tropical systems we can see a -epo was established. Below that is the cutoff off the sw pacific coast, which is the system in question for halloween timeframe. The Atlantic side of things, we have a north atlantic ridge popping up, with a +nao. Wit the -epo setup/split flow on the west coast and the north atlantic ridge offshore, the downstream trofiness should translate to over the eastern third of the USA. Now in terms of the mjo, the h5 pattern isn't to far off the progged pattern from the euro ens. The current MJO right now is phase 2, but i circled the mjo phases next week which is phjase 3 heading into phase 3 Now the corresponding h5 patterns for phase 3-4 for november is Its not a perfect match, but they do show a general average to little below average for the east cost. While the west coast features a general ridge, but the -epo sources don't match up to well. The east asian mt torque has been pretty positive since about october 15, which usually is indicative of meridonal flow, which may support the increase in the heights along the west coast into alaska. Last be not least, the area that i circled, i think is response from the recurving typhoon. I'm Like 40% on this since i don't know much about the AAM. But i think that +AAM is the -epo ridge popping which is givng the illusion of the polar jet retreating. After this i think we should begin a warm period after nov 7 as the mjo heads into phases 5-6 which are warmer than normal for the east. Also, some of the ensembles want to slowly bring a lobe of thatpv over siberia and work it south over alaska. This would then knock out that -epo and kick everything eastward. Feel free to hammer this hahaa. I just want here some other input on this.

So reading that roundy is still the way to go? Also, on the AAM plots we are starting to see +AAM after hr 120 is that the polar jet retreating ? Also, I noticed some blues in the 90n zone is that the polar vortex organizing with the +ao?

pretty big difference right now between the euro ens mean for halloween into that weekend and the euro operational.. Euro ens mean has highs in the 53-57 range, while the euro op is 65-70

I posted this in the sne forum to but...The euro ens at day 10 h5 anomaly looks like it would send down another shot of cold air for the first week of november. Looks interesting in terms of keeping the east below normal. You have split flowish in the west, with a cutoff in the sw and ridging in the pacific northwest into canada. You have an erroding -epo and a north atlantic ridge which is bottling some chilly air in the eastern third of the US. Only scary thing is there is a pv lobe that is rotating slowly down towards alaska, while another is parked over greenland. If that pv lobe gets into alaska and sits there almost bank on a warm stretch as all the cold air would be confined to central canada on north. I'm not sure which mjo forecast to go off, the rmm stuff or roundy, but if the roundy one is right after the first week of november it would propagate into phase 5/6 which are warm phases.

The euro ens at day 10 h5 anomaly looks like it would send down another shot of cold air for the first week of november. Looks interesting in terms of keeping the east below normal. You have split flowish in the west, with a cutoff in the sw and ridging in the pacific northwest into canada. You have an erroding -epo and a north atlantic ridge which is bottling some chilly air in the eastern third of the US. Only scary thing is there is a pv lobe that is rotating slowly down towards alaska, while another is parked over greenland.

They are actually getting a little closer... last week the gfs had a strong wave heading into phase 8 then 1. While the euro kept it in the COd and had it emerging into phase 1-2, but no where near as strong of a wave as gfs.