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Capt. Adam

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    E of KACY
  1. Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run...
  2. For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see. 3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know!
  3. Yes, see post above. The trend will be our friend? But...and a big BUT here...HRRR at this range might as well be GFS at 300+...
  4. Yes, agreed. Same time period, through 11 pm...better for city and east and northern Jersey shore...but again, I think 6"-12" for most is a good expectation...locally higher amounts...modeling consistent on this imo.
  5. Last map I posted was the 06Z...sorry about that...here is the 09Z out to 18 hrs...so this will be through 11 pm...not much additional in that 3 hour period...only another inch or so city and west...good improvement east as noted above...pretty consistent with the 6"-12" maps posted yesterday, IMO.
  6. Duly noted in my follow up post...and my OP updated as well. HRRR only goes to 18 so can't post anything further out in time until next run comes out, let's hope for increases through the day. What the models take away they can give back!
  7. See my last post...fwiw, snow is still falling, especially east of the city at that time, so final totals would go up some.
  8. I would not call this "really aggressive". Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really. Good news is snow is still falling at this time, a few more hours likely, especially east of city. After dark will help with accumulations. I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV! Good luck, all!
  9. I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals. From their 12:35 pm AFD - The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a good start! Finally, heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas, with less in the urban centers.
  10. Umm, NO. Still a heckuva storm for any time of the year...epic for the first full day of Spring as far as I'm concerned...and I'm lovin' it, but these 10:1 20"+ maps are just being tossed about with little care imo. Good luck to all, hope everyone in this forum and others gets buried...safely!
  11. Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1.
  12. Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map...
  13. 10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading. As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least. Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut. Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 30-50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM forecast played out.
  14. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    OPC Ocean Prediction Center...generates weather maps for the North Atlantic. Label is right on bottom of the charts Doorman is posting.
  15. Bomb Cyclone Obs Thread, March 1-3 2018

    Nothing sticking in Northern Ocean County yet...snow without mixing for past hour or so. Nothing other than an occassional flakes mixed with rain south of Rt. 72.