Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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13 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

He’s thinking about it. Says vortex disruption prediction a bust for  near future. But going to hang his hat on favorable arctic region to deliver the goods. 

Cohen actually taught me a very good lesson about the spv and tpv. The tpv cannot be predicted at all from any lead beyond a week or 2. The spv actually can be predicted somewhat further in advance but what the spv does to the troposphere/sensible wx cannot be predicted at all so it doesn't matter if you get the strat right or wrong.

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The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

I don't even know what you just said 

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't even know what you just said 

I only had three beers.......  getting ready for the Eagles game. I need to be a little buzzed to watch my home town team. Ugh !   

To clarify, they look a bit on the warm side until the end of January.

They also look like the Euro seasonal model runs which depict little high latitude blocking.  So, they match the Euro seasonals from Sept and October that forecast little blocking and a not so good pattern for us.  I hope that is clearer.  

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

They look good enough. Very seasonable start to finish with no major torches or ice boxes. The MA region oscillates equally between slightly above and below normal temps start to finish. If anything, the entire 45 day period looks just like the next 2 weeks. Not great, not a shutout, and should provide chances off and on. 

One thing I noticed is there are no strong 500mb height anoms parked anywhere. No strong teleconnection signals either. That tells me that inside of the weekly's mean panels are equal distribution of every possible outcome. Lol. 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

I only had three beers.......  getting ready for the Eagles game. I need to be a little buzzed to watch my home town team. Ugh !   

To clarify, they look a bit on the warm side until the end of January.

They also look like the Euro seasonal model runs which depict little high latitude blocking.  So, they match the Euro seasonals from Sept and October that forecast little blocking and a not so good pattern for us.  I hope that is clearer.  

To me they look washed out and imply the eps has no clue. 

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing I noticed is there are no strong 500mb height anoms parked anywhere. No strong teleconnection signals either. That tells me that inside of the weekly's mean panels are equal distribution of every possible outcome. Lol. 

Yes, as to my remark they seem washed out. Nothing remarkable . but NOT a torch either. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, as to my remark they seem washed out. Nothing remarkable . but NOT a torch either. 

They basically tell us nothing other than long duration extreme wx patterns are unlikely. Imgur app isn't giving me direct links so I can't embed but here's the 30 day mean for d15-45. I have never seen such an ambiguous panel.  Lol

http://imgur.com/a/XKJR0Yp

ETA: @psuhoffman. Lol- identical thoughts again. Uncanny at times 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To me they look washed out and imply the eps has no clue. 

 

They always look ambiguous. One reason why I find them mostly useless. Its pretty much up for interpretation for those who insist on "seeing" something telling there. Pretty subjective.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

its pretty much up for interpretation for those who insist on "seeing" something telling there.

LOL....... sounds like a weather version of a Rorschach test.  

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They always look ambiguous. One reason why I find them mostly useless. Its pretty much up for interpretation for those who insist on "seeing" something telling there. Pretty subjective.

Not mostly useless, completely useless. A blind squirrel finds a nut  occasionally and that’s the perfect analogy for anytime the weeklies are correct.

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Hmm, has anyone ever seen PSU and Bob together at the same place at the same time?
Zero chance they are the same people. #politics
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12 minutes ago, Ji said:
51 minutes ago, cbmclean said:
Hmm, has anyone ever seen PSU and Bob together at the same place at the same time?

Zero chance they are the same people. #politics

Could just be a clever ploy to throw us all off.

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Euro upped the ante for the day 7 period. Kuchera actually shows greater totals for the cities and north I just couldn't get the whole time frame for the whole region using it.

204653045_snowmap.gif.0c49905b35a0bbb78ef2b27cbe492a16.gif

 

Believe it or not though, If this idea of closing off the 500's with the trailing trough is legit there is even more potential upside with the snow map above especially for those in the southern and eastern portions of our region. As it is the blowup we see on the snow from the previous run is directly related to how the trough is handled. We are seeing the trough axis having a more neutral look compared to the somewhat sheared look previously. We are also seeing a quicker closing of the 500's as well. These things are enabling a better feed of moisture into our region. Right now the trough is lagging behind somewhat from the lower pressures we are seeing first in the south and then off the east coast. But if we can see the separation between the two lessened by 1/2 to a day as well as possibly a quicker closing of the trough we probably would see a much more vigorous system or even possibly a 1, 2 punch.

****Actually saw encouraging signs across the board (GFS, GEFS, Euro, EPS) But we are talking seven days away, so...***

 

983215275_closedlow.gif.dab63ed96993061671b4a211799bd045.gif

 

 

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43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro upped the ante for the day 7 period. Kuchera actually shows greater totals for the cities and north I just couldn't get the whole time frame for the whole region using it.

204653045_snowmap.gif.0c49905b35a0bbb78ef2b27cbe492a16.gif

 

Believe it or not though, If this idea of closing off the 500's with the trailing trough is legit there is even more potential upside with the snow map above especially for those in the southern and eastern portions of our region. As it is the blowup we see on the snow from the previous run is directly related to how the trough is handled. We are seeing the trough axis having a more neutral look compared to the somewhat sheared look previously. We are also seeing a quicker closing of the 500's as well. These things are enabling a better feed of moisture into our region. Right now the trough is lagging behind somewhat from the lower pressures we are seeing first in the south and then off the east coast. But if we can see the separation between the two lessened by 1/2 to a day as well as possibly a quicker closing of the trough we probably would see a much more vigorous system or even possibly a 1, 2 punch.

****Actually saw encouraging signs across the board (GFS, GEFS, Euro, EPS) But we are talking seven days away, so...***

 

GFS looks pretty similar re the snowfall map, but the heavier snow is just north of our region a bit further up into PA. Given the advertised pattern there is a ton of potential, and yeah at this range there are just a few options on how this evolves. It's a pretty classic advertised look up top for a MA winter storm, maybe for as far south as NC. Long way to go ofc.

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Probably the biggest reason we are seeing a more favorable trough setup is because of the higher heights showing above it through southern Canada on this latest run. Below is the run over run change from yesterdays 12Z. This helps to create better dig as well as a better turning of the trough axis. The changes with the lower pressures reflect the response we see from the trough from those higher heights.

500schange.gif.e605366101738bcdbe697e22e108e715.gif

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z EPS continues to advertise a potential coastal storm towards mid next week. This is a pretty classic looking set up at h5.

1576605600-x1234yfeK7w.png

 

Nice ridging out west for this possible event.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro upped the ante for the day 7 period. Kuchera actually shows greater totals for the cities and north I just couldn't get the whole time frame for the whole region using it.

204653045_snowmap.gif.0c49905b35a0bbb78ef2b27cbe492a16.gif

 

Believe it or not though, If this idea of closing off the 500's with the trailing trough is legit there is even more potential upside with the snow map above especially for those in the southern and eastern portions of our region. As it is the blowup we see on the snow from the previous run is directly related to how the trough is handled. We are seeing the trough axis having a more neutral look compared to the somewhat sheared look previously. We are also seeing a quicker closing of the 500's as well. These things are enabling a better feed of moisture into our region. Right now the trough is lagging behind somewhat from the lower pressures we are seeing first in the south and then off the east coast. But if we can see the separation between the two lessened by 1/2 to a day as well as possibly a quicker closing of the trough we probably would see a much more vigorous system or even possibly a 1, 2 punch.

****Actually saw encouraging signs across the board (GFS, GEFS, Euro, EPS) But we are talking seven days away, so...***

 

983215275_closedlow.gif.dab63ed96993061671b4a211799bd045.gif

 

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this would be around the 10 year anniversary of the 2009 storm. That would be pretty awesome if it happens. 

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

MSLP anomaly and precip panels still look enticing. This is the third straight run on the EPS with a pretty strong storm signal for this period.

1576648800-cjLac1QPqvQ.png

1576648800-pnnTE5GmReQ.png

I know you hate snow maps from Ensembles but this period is really popping up.  With the advertised look up top, this could get fun, quickly.  Again, some of the best "clustering" at this lead so far.

Euro Snow DEC 18.png

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

pretty classic advertised look up top for a MA winter storm, maybe for as far south as NC.

 

Might be going towards this down the road and the talk of an improving Atlantic has been discussed here for the last several days. 

 

 

 

 

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