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March Disco

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You lucked out no doub't, Overall, Wasn't great for many, My grade is a C - here.

The frustration through mid Feb brought it down. Got much better after I vented. And proud of it. 

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It's a nuclear ridge...can't ever really rule anything out at 7 days out with that look.

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah but c'mon.....if a 24-inch birch breaking blue bomb was coming down Route 89.....you'd take it. 

Oh well for sure.  I'd take a 4-8" event...but if it's not going to snow....

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a nuclear ridge...can't ever really rule anything out at 7 days out with that look.

Yup!

And the GEF's have been all over it for quite some time.

I don't speak to the EPS derivatives - as far as I know, there are no free sites for " EPS -based NAO, EPO...WPO, PNA" ...etc.  But, the CDC and CPC agencies have been way more amplified and in modality than the operational models across the board have been willing to acquiesce to..

which is a mystery ... that much weight being ignored.  It's happened before though.  Sometimes when both the higher resolution operational models (GFS and ECMWF) agree on a one look, the ensemble mean will collapse in that favor regardless of the antecedent signal.  So, there's no way to tell if that's going to happen this time, or, the operational runs will come around to and suddenly plumb the Equinox heights over the east. Could certainly go that way too -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup!

And the GEF's have been all over it for quite some time.

I don't speak to the EPS derivatives - as far as I know, there are no free sites for " EPS -based NAO, EPO...WPO, PNA" ...etc.  But, the CDC and CPC agencies have been way more amplified and in modality than the operational models across the board have been willing to acquiesce to..

which is a mystery ... that much weight being ignored.  It's happened before though.  Sometimes when both the higher resolution operational models (GFS and ECMWF) agree on a one look, the ensemble mean will collapse in that favor regardless of the antecedent signal.  So, there's no way to tell if that's going to happen this time, or, the operational runs will come around to and suddenly plumb the Equinox heights over the east. Could certainly go that way too -

12z Ukie looks pretty "interesting" at day 6 as well at the end of its run. I'm not trying to get everyone's hopes up saying a big one is likely, but we know the risks of a very amplified PNA ridge. The embedded shortwaves likely wouldn't be resolved until another 48-72 hours closer. That said, I'd like to see a little more northern stream phase in there, but there's obviously potential.

 

 

Mar14_12zUkie.gif

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Agreed with Will.. 

also add - the models may be too quick to collapse the ridge/founding circulation that led to it's construction ... to liberally.  Sometimes when there's a whole scale pattern change ... that kind of handling can get stochastic. 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed with Will.. 

also add - the models may be too quick to collapse the ridge/founding circulation that led to it's construction ... to liberally.  Sometimes when there's a whole scale pattern change ... that kind of handling can get stochastic. 

wait...what? whole scale pattern change? for how long? 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z Ukie looks pretty "interesting" at day 6 as well at the end of its run. I'm not trying to get everyone's hopes up saying a big one is likely, but we know the risks of a very amplified PNA ridge. The embedded shortwaves likely wouldn't be resolved until another 48-72 hours closer. That said, I'd like to see a little more northern stream phase in there, but there's obviously potential.

 

 

Mar14_12zUkie.gif

Goddam!  That’s a sweet look leading in!

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Until I see the white’s of its weenie....we move on.

Otherwise it’s cold 38-42 and frigid nights.  At least your dashboard will be warm to the touch 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Otherwise it’s cold 38-42 and frigid nights.  At least your dashboard will be warm to the touch 

 I am  100% with you on getting snow if it’s gonna be this goddamn cold. Right now the me it looks like a bit of a stretch but not impossible. That’s all. 

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Its the bear awakening right now........lol

And skunks.  1st of the season stink-o-rama Monday, again Tuesday, and 2 different spots today, all on my morning commute.  Expect the barred owls to open up any day now.
 

You lucked out no doubt, Overall, Wasn't great for many, My grade is a C - here.

If March-April come in right at C-level, this winter will score a solid C+, thanks to the A+ for (low-weighted) Novie and a B+ for January, overcoming December's D.  (And only Dec being BN temps kept it with a passing grade.)  I value pack depth and persistence, and this winter will almost certainly have 2nd highest SDDs of 21 here - after today will be over 2,500 and about 300 behind current #2 (13-14) with 37-38" current depth, but 1,300 away from 07-08.  Would need a blockbuster (or two), plus a cold April, to approach that winter - not happening.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s over. File the tellies away for 8 months. 

Looks like we will have to deal with the true New England spring this year...warm weather teasing us until June 15th, mud pies for everyone until further notice. Dogs needing wiped down from head to paw every time they go outside and probably a full fledge tick season to make up for last year's lack...

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27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The PNA has blue-balled this forum all winter.  Don't fall for it.

The pna is happening whether you believe it or not..its the other difficulties...fast flow with more super +nao...fighting climo.  

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53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s over. File the tellies away for 8 months. 

Before it started too for many.

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43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The PNA has blue-balled this forum all winter.  Don't fall for it.

At least nobody's posting those damn MJO diagrams anymore.

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53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The PNA has blue-balled this forum all winter.  Don't fall for it.

mmm Not like this ... 

It may "blue ball" this time - it may.   But at no time really this winter has the PNA been progged dual both agencies to this type of magnitude, for this long.  

Having said that...  the Euro doubled down on the ignore PNA look by full blown Chinook spring blasting the entire continent below the 50th parallel...  It's amazing how contradictory that is ...really.

You know...can't say I'd hate that if we were 72 for three days on a west wind 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm Not like this ... 

It may "blue ball" this time - it may.   But at no time really this winter has the PNA been progged dual both agencies to this type of magnitude, for this long.  

Having said that...  the Euro doubled down on the ignore PNA look but full blown Chinook spring blasting the entire continent below the 50th parallel...  It's amazing how contradictory that is ...really.

So Tip this "potential" has been out there for over a week? I believe you were one of the first to note it, with that said, Scott says needs mouth to mouth but is "there", 24 hours from now thought on that signal status? And I'm sorry which model is hinting, few have dropped it ,correct?

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32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The pna is happening whether you believe it or not..its the other difficulties...fast flow with more super +nao...fighting climo.  

Oh, I do believe it's happening.  It's been happening all Winter and it's produced as much as Pablo Sandoval did during his stint with the Red Sox.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

...while folks in NNE rock back and forth, hoping to not see visible signs of a glaciated snowpack melting. 

Sounds like more SNE folklore.  Most of us too busy doing actual NNE stuff this time of year.

15MAR17F.jpg

On average though, the Mansfield snowpack is going to start decreasing in just a few short weeks, and it’s only going to be around for another 2 to 3 months, so the locals are definitely freaking out.  The apprehension was overtly palpable as I traveled through town today.

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