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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Won’t be much left after today and tomorrow. Preserve parking lot piles?

Last night took most of the piles away for me as well.  Mostly grass showing now.  Glad its gone.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been rather negative recently. It’s also been biased west and more -EPO which may be skewing that chart. 

Agreed, that's why I said it's blue-balled us all Winter.  Devil is in the details.  The ridging was too far West off the coast to give us the goods.

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Been reading there are signals for yet another (perhaps final) strong stratospheric warming event as we close out the month. We're certainly still not done with some pretty decent cold shots. I would think we should get a pretty solid cold shot towards the end of the month (unless the warming signal of the stratosphere wanes), but after that the pattern should relax and the general signal will be above-average temps (of course we have to watch for BDCF's). 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like next week isn’t going to cooperate. Would be nice since it appears useless cold shots may come.

Ridge is pushing east.

 Not good at all for a storm

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Could be a few small events...lots of s/w energy will be diving through. Any threats probably aren't going to show up well or modeled well. Will be more based on timing of things than anything. 

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9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's a ridiculous fad and contrary to what constitutes good brewing practices.  This is not to say they are not good brewers and they definitely make some tasty beers but the New England IPA has become a parody of itself.  Brew me a clean crisp pilsner and I'll rain down praise.

A lot of their beer is just too much. We have a place down here called Two Roads, and they have a few really good beers, but a lot of the stuff is over bearing.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ridge is pushing east.

 Not good at all for a storm

The PNA ridge? All damn Winter any decent ridge out there would be too far West for a good snow pattern/storm here. Now it's going to be too far East :facepalm:

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IDK if it has much to do with ridge being east...trough doesn't seem to really become that amplified and there isn't much southern stream interaction. All northern stream based action. Would have to hope for a major amplification/strengthening signal right off the coast. But it's almost April...should be shifting focus towards svr, heat, and dews. 

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been reading there are signals for yet another (perhaps final) strong stratospheric warming event as we close out the month. We're certainly still not done with some pretty decent cold shots. I would think we should get a pretty solid cold shot towards the end of the month (unless the warming signal of the stratosphere wanes), but after that the pattern should relax and the general signal will be above-average temps (of course we have to watch for BDCF's). 

 

I think that’s fairly typical to get a final warming event. I don’t really see anything exciting in the strat  yet. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think that’s fairly typical to get a final warming event. I don’t really see anything exciting in the strat  yet. 

There is this AWESOME site someone put together (I have the link on my laptop) that has incredible tools to diagnose the stratosphere and tools for forecasting. I'm sure you know what it is...but the 3D look at the structure of it. I need to save that link at work. 

I haven't looked at anything at all strat wise since early January. From the readings I've done it does seem these are on the common side, but they can also be handled poorly (even moreso than usual) with the models. 

One thing I'm trying to learn more about is heat transport from the equator to the poles. I guess the premise is that with such a massive ridge building from the PAC tropics to the Arctic this would yield a huge heat pump (I can't think of the proper term for this) which would have a huge impact on the PV...? Pieces of s/w energy will disrupt the TPV and processes in the stratosphere would allow for the stratospheric PV to become weak or break apart?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares about strat warming in early April....like, yea...lets reap the benefits of downward propagation on Patriots day...

colder air means denser air means less HR for JD :( 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares about strat warming in early April....like, yea...lets reap the benefits of downward propagation on Patriots day...

Heavier drizzle?

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54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed, that's why I said it's blue-balled us all Winter.  Devil is in the details.  The ridging was too far West off the coast to give us the goods.

An anomalous ridge migrates over the rockies in the next 5 days. Its rarely been there the whole winter. Whether or not it snows iyby is immaterial to that reality. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the chance for some decent cold, relative to the time of the year, on the horizon. Hopefully they moderate some. The 00z GFS was trying to drop -30C over CAR. No thanks.

It's only 3/15 though. We're not going to make it through the rest of the season without a little more snow, at least up here. 2012 isn't walking through that door.

Heh, seems the best this positive PNA will throw over N/A's a cold wave over NE ...  I mean, it's like literally doing that - stretching the field so that it can't storm but resolidifies the Earth in New England.  awesome haha 

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Euro says congrats on days and days of highs in the 30s/40s with 0F dewpoints.

 

At least the inside of the car will be warm.

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actually... The GFS may be trying to target right under our noses.  

That clipper on the 00z and 06z system - as I'm sure this has been mentioned ... - is rather robust, and deepens a classic NJ model low into the 980s passing near the BM... circa 96 hours. 

Thing is, it's gotta do better than that.  As is typical for narrow latitude critters their impact is also relatively narrow.  But this system is arriving into the east on the steep PNA rise so there's some modulation potential there -

Ah, never mind - I screwed up my time stamps.  I've noticed if clicking around in TT that guy f-ups you up about "when" you are looking at what -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually... The GFS may be trying to target right under our noses.  

That clipper on the 00z and 06z system - as I'm sure this has been mentioned ... - is rather robust, and deepens a classic NJ model low into the 980s passing near the BM... circa 96 hours. 

Thing is, it's gotta do better than that.  As is typical for narrow latitude critters their impact is also relatively narrow.  But this system is arriving into the east on the steep PNA rise so there's some modulation potential there -

Ah, never mind - I screwed up my time stamps.  I've noticed if clicking around in TT that guy f-ups you up about "when" you are looking at what -

You mean like clicking the up/down arrows instead of left/right...I do that sometimes and it drives me nuts lol. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro says congrats on days and days of highs in the 30s/40s with 0F dewpoints.

 

At least the inside of the car will be warm.

Terrible. 

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Im down in Maryland right now.  This warmth feels so good.  Meanwhile looking back home 36.6F and only got to 42F yesterday.  Thought this was going to be our 2 days of good melting.  This pack is never going to go away!  Today is over 4 months of snowcover and the deer in my pasture are getting thinner and are just eating bark off of the apple trees.  Wish this thaw would have opened up a few grass patches but not going to happen.  Just quickly reading the posts looks like no warmth in the future?

Yesterdays drive down, snow patches to just north of NYC.  Green grass in Baltimore but greenup seems to be behind even down here.  Sometimes forsythia has started by now but I see no signs.  550 mile trip back to snow and mud tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Im down in Maryland right now.  This warmth feels so good.  Meanwhile looking back home 36.6F and only got to 42F yesterday.  Thought this was going to be our 2 days of good melting.  This pack is never going to go away!  Today is over 4 months of snowcover and the deer in my pasture are getting thinner and are just eating bark off of the apple trees.  Wish this thaw would have opened up a few grass patches but not going to happen.  Just quickly reading the posts looks like no warmth in the future?

Yesterdays drive down, snow patches to just north of NYC.  Green grass in Baltimore but greenup seems to be behind even down here.  Sometimes forsythia has started by now but I see no signs.  550 mile trip back to snow and mud tomorrow.

 This is the only time of year where the Mid Atlantic is appealing.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the month looks like a battle ground pattern nearby. Maybe we can grab something then. 

The para GFS wasn't actually too far from meaningful impact earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The para GFS wasn't actually too far earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 Yeah. I mean like you said we are just loosely talking about it, but for the time being I wouldn't say this is a warm and dry pattern right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The para GFS wasn't actually too far earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

All sarcasm aside, the highly meridonal PNA in conjunction with the changing wavelengths screams short lead time to me....ie, don't be suprised if something quite impactful pops up at 72 hours.

Would I bet on that, no....oops, already have.

Damn it-

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