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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Pinkham Notch with only 143"?  Seems low for 2,000ft elevation. 

I saw the same # refererenced on the Wildcat website which surprised me. I always say there is some rough equivalency between Wildcat and Sugarloaf and Sugarloaf is 210ish so far. Didn't Alex say he is at165"?

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Hey it snowed enough to cover up the dog messes int he backyard last night.  Light flurry now.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Did anyone else get snow overnight?  Woke up to a solid coating here.

-SHSN here just before 5am...not even a dusting though.

 

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That kicker plays the turd in the punch bowl on the op GFS. FV3 has more wave spacing and says no problem. 120hr both storm related shortwaves are just off LI except the GFS has the kicker entering w PA while the FV3 has it over Lake MI. Haven't seen the 6z EC though.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That kicker plays the turd in the punch bowl on the op GFS. FV3 has more wave spacing and says no problem. 120hr both storm related shortwaves are just off LI except the GFS has the kicker entering w PA while the FV3 has it over Lake MI. Haven't seen the 6z EC though.

The 00z EC was retrograding the energy in question into the Rockies lol. 6z got some of this further east. 

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Gave this some thought last night ... not that any of this really matters in the grand scheme of our collective war against reality -

But not getting a storm between today and the 24th (or so) of the month, really shouldn't be deemed as an operational blindness.  I think the fact that these parallel GFS operational runs are illustrating these dubious convectively powered cold core outre physics sap-sucker lows that people only fail to contain giddiness for ... speaks volumes to the native numerical instability. But that instability IS the potential of this pattern, whether it storm is born or not.

The problem always has been the dearth of impulses (S/W's) timed, ... a dilemma to amplitude that's been there all along.  Since the aroma of strong +PNA first began painting on operational run depictions ... days and days ago ... that's been the plight.  Incredible "lead the horse to water, can't make 'em drink" pattern. Wasted potential... Mensa kid on opiate addiction ... any metaphor where destiny and latency part company in sad way.

Be that as it may ... Scott's right ... As we've repeatedly hammered (too) going back over a week's worth of the failure to produce a good modeling cinema for the users here :) ... so long as the +PNA is verifying and that western ridge flexes as it is ( now ) verifying, you just have to wait it out and either let it waste away, or... perhaps come to fruition from less typical lead antics.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s completely separate from what Brian is talking about. 00z euro was a mess.

Are you typing that to me ...?   I was just making a statement in general btw - I wasn't addressing any particular concepts or post over the last pages... ( just in case..).

I mean patterns of favorable and less favorability come and go - they don't all produce, where some do that really shouldn't ... as you well know.

I think of it as overlapping probability curves ... One side has a mass of events and a few sporadic outliers sprinkle into the lower probability side.  I did mention your name but it still applied to the general idea. 

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26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Did anyone else get snow overnight?  Woke up to a solid coating here.

2" on the cars and trees at home, 4-5" up here at the ski resort base.

Looks like winter again covering the dirty spring banks that arrived the past couple days.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are you typing that to me ...?   I was just making a statement in general btw - I wasn't addressing any particular concepts or post over the last pages... ( just in case..).

I mean patterns of favorable and less favorability come and go - they don't all produce, where some do that really shouldn't ... as you well know.

I think of it as overlapping probability curves ... One side has a mass of events and a few sporadic outliers sprinkle into the lower probability side.  I did mention your name but it still applied to the general idea. 

No no. Sorry for not clarifying. I was speaking about my reference to the energy buried into the Rockies. That’s different from what Brian is referring to.

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1 hour ago, Angus said:

I saw the same # refererenced on the Wildcat website which surprised me. I always say there is some rough equivalency between Wildcat and Sugarloaf and Sugarloaf is 210ish so far. Didn't Alex say he is at165"?

I'm just short of 160. The resort reports 178-215 season to date. It's a bit low BUT Wildcat doesn't  get nearly as much upslope. They do however have amazing retention. 

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14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

as did the 06Z EPS 

Yeah just saw. I mean if it’s going to be this cold, might as well make it fun. 

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No no. Sorry for not clarifying. I was speaking about my reference to the energy buried into the Rockies. That’s different from what Brian is referring to.

Gotcha.. .

Yeah...  Seems to be folks don't like phasing .. They seem to rely upon get out of the way, or 'kicker' ...one or the other.  But you can't zygote without two and sometimes that happens. It's been harder to get purer phases the last several years.  2015 was rare in that the N/stream got so dominant that we ended up on the arctic side of the SPV jet and that sort of cast an illusion of the same thing - interesting, but otherwise, phasing has been difficult.

I'm convinced it is endemic to flow speed (and we've had a surplus of that over the recent winters, no doubt!) though.

It's very difficult to phase in what we call "gradient looks" - is just another way to define a flow that is velocity saturated.  Need a team of grad students to roll up sleeves and hit the chalk-board on the subject matter but I'm almost certain there is a target proportionality where the the N/S motion of the N/stream has to be such and such with respect to the W/E motion of the southern stream or else bi-pass results.  I think the diving N/stream in subsuming has to 'catch-up' to the W-S wave displacement of the S/stream.  If the flow is very fast, the S wave translation outpaces and only tickles a phase and either ends up a "hook low" for NS or ejected/bi-passed altogether.  

S/W displacement is a different speed than the winds blowing around them - but the two are related. The former tends to also speed up .. particularly in the southern branch.  S/Ws in gradient looks move from California to England at seemingly time dilation speeds... geesh. If the western end an N/stream is moving SSE ... it should be intuitive to see/sense that the 'timing' of their interaction becomes a delicate matter of actually getting the miracle of the sperm into the ege.  ha! 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just saw. I mean if it’s going to be this cold, might as well make it fun. 

Yup. And it's the time of the year where it'll vaporize pretty quickly too. I don't have to worry about 2 weeks of an iced over driveway now.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it really is trying

that ICON model stepped interestingly -

 Several models trying to give a glimmer of hope,  can't quite call it a trend until it is an actual trend but  let's see what happens as we get better sampling as you alluded to yesterday. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Several models trying to give a glimmer of hope,  can't quite call it a trend until it is an actual trend but  let's see what happens as we get better sampling as you alluded to yesterday. 

Yeeeah not to quibble over semantics either but I'd say this qualifies as a trend.  It's early in said trend and as trends go ...could stop and collapse and etc.. But, we have a more than cycle involved in this.

I'm actually kind of hoping for a FV3' sort of coup. Tho I suspect the convective nature of it's 00z and 06z runs in particular could stand some modulating ... the fact that the model is supposed to be replacing the GFS operational at some point over the next while here ...we'd kinda sorta like to see it nail something and doing so ahead of the others would be an added incentive/confidence boost. T

If something should come to  ... ah, not just pass but impact, it would be still understandable for the Euro's wheel house in that these players don't really interact until beyond D4

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