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March Disco

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

The icon makes so many run to run changes its almost unusable. Still, this is the period i thought had some potential a few days and still do. 

Yeah I'm with ya -

I wasn't foisting trophies for that model :)  ... I get what you mean.  Particularly the the overall sentiment about this "somewhat" relaxed/meridional flow type being more conducive...

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Yeah...not gonna happen. Looks like it loses/buries some of the energy in the deep south and we end up with something weaker up here before the trailing s/w pushes through.

idk...still looks like plenty of potential to me despite the messy looks. Of course messy hasn't gotten us very far this winter.

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1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Is there a strong HP for this potential threat? Being so late in the season and climo kicking in, it doesn’t look terribly cold in SNE during said period.

The antecedent airmass is plenty cold enough for most for a potential late blooming system.

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

For most huh... who are the have nots?

I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol

If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right?

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41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea... I’ll buy a Brady jersey and wear it every sunday if the son of a gfs scores a coup. 

On queue FV3 lost it too far east.

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Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast...

That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol

If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right?

Of course, just poking the nest a bit, lol. I’m kinda checked out personally and not expecting much, but still would be happy with an unexpected surprise if it were in the cards

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14 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast...

That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... 

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Fv3 Jacks me with 26". Gotta be correct

 

 

I love the FV3. Its like a fantasy storm entertainment model. Like roller coaster tycoon for snowstorms.

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21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

On queue FV3 lost it too far east.

"Lost" ?

Not sure it ever "had it" far enough west to begin with - at least I'm not familiar with any prior model cycles where it depicted it so...

No, if anything, from a Meteorological perspective this was a higher impact solution when assessing using the 500 mb chart synoptic evolution and the fact that any surface response may or may not have been too far E as this particular run goes is mutable.

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The FV3 is garbage. The only reason why I am mildly interested in this threat is because it is being hinted at a bit by the other models/ensembles. I will give this another 36 hours before I put this threat to rest or buy into it. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

H5_FV3_03_17_2019_shortwave_entering_BC.jpg.24197545506c437aece0328c9a017e45.jpg

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me?

East of 6z 

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11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

yes, it's in the NW territories now

vort.thumb.PNG.0ffbcfe59a9b412097b93adeece4c723.PNG

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

East of 6z 

I guess it depends on your view. Nothing had it near Chatham previously. It developed and curled north. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me?

The change for wsne is the angle of approach.  12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The change for wsne is the angle of approach.  12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference 

Yeah I mentioned that earlier. Depends on view. 

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