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About purduewx80

  • Birthday 05/21/1980

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    Humboldt Park, Chicago

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  1. You can already see the right-moving cells in WI on some of the longer composite loops. It appears all the differences in guidance for S WI and N IL come down to breaking the cap. Will have to watch that cell in WI even though it may move off the instability axis in the next hour or two. It will lay out a mesoscale boundary near the warm front that may also enhance a lake breeze and its associated convergence in east-central and southeast WI, for a potential initiation area. It's hard to ignore the consistency of the ECMWF and HRGEM to initiate cells back near MSN, DBQ, RFD, but we definitely need to think about a strong cap holding things back today. Mid-level lapse rates have been observed near 9C/km at OAX and DVN this morning: That plus a ~70KT mid-level jet forecast to overspread the region should allow for quick supercell development around 5-6PM - these will eventually grow upscale into that long, SE-moving squall line overnight.
  2. doubt this would stick in the city (and be more mix or IP).
  3. The warm front should blast through Friday morning given stout SW'rly flow. With enough sunshine, these 850 temps could bring highs to the low 80s for parts of NJ. Soundings suggest some cirrus around, so we may top out just shy of 80 in the city.
  4. One or two days of anomalous warmth does not prove the climate is changing (even though it is). Records today from 2016 will be hard to beat - EWR: 82. NYC: 77. LGA: 75. JFK: 67.
  5. Nice signal for banded heavy snowfall across NC/far SE VA tomorrow evening.
  6. no kidding. some red flags and rounding in there, but still:
  7. KALB 071937Z 28025G39KT 1/8SM R01/1800V4000FT +SN BLSN BR VV010 M02/M05 A2894 RMK AO2 PK WND 28039/1931 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESRR P0001 T10221050
  8. garbage and garbage can lids flying high in bed stuy.
  9. EWR the "winner" for the three major airports so far at 54MPH.
  10. Yup, strongest winds on the forecast soundings are showing up between 1 and 4 this afternoon, once the direction turns more W or W/SW.
  11. Temp up to 61 at EWR ahead of the line, smashes the old record. Edit: PNS statement says the temp was actually 60F. The 5min obs in C are rounded when converted.
  12. The wind comes behind the line of showers for Manhattan/BX.
  13. +TSSN in the BGM area recently. SYR also reported 2"/hr rates last hour.