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purduewx80

Meteorologist
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About purduewx80

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  • Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
  1. 1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows

    rgem has had some major busts this season that would support a colder boundary layer than explicitly shown...
  2. 1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows

    Models are rightfully keying in on that warm tongue for heat release and the location of initial development. There have even been a few thunderstorms east of the Outer Banks this morning. Otherwise, most of this system involves that weak low throwing Atlantic moisture up over the cold dome, as the upper jet structure isn't entirely favorable for cyclogenesis until the low is way up in Canada. Mod
  3. 1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows

    It is not trending south. Trends in the last 24 hours are for a slower and more moist system that is closer to the coast. Forecast soundings suggest to me this won't take long to flip to snow, even at JFK and most of Long Island. It is
  4. 1.70" PWAT on OKX this evening, although the SPC analysis says 1.67". either way, boom.
  5. it's likely a combo of the convective showers rolling through and the extremely shallow inversion, which is only a couple hundred feet thick. 50KT+ showing up on the jfk terminal doppler at 800-1000'.
  6. this air mass streaming over all the cold/frozen near shore water is making for an ugly day at the airports. jfk has had vis as low as 200' right by the icy jamaica bay. 48 there now (high of 54 so far during period of gustier winds) vs 63 at ewr. the same thing has been happening at dca with dense fog right on the runways next to the potomac.
  7. there is likely to be a january and potential meteorological winter record pwat at okx at 00z, as long as convection doesn't interfere with the balloon launch. mhx set their january record pwat at 12z - 1.77". the january record at okx is 1.59" and the dec-feb record is 1.66" on dec 12 as shown below. most guidance peaks at 1.65-1.70" today/tonight. the upper low east of florida got squashed by that monster ridge, but numerous vorts have shot out of it and are headed our way this afternoon in collocation with that moisture plume njwx85 showed. radar imagery from eastern va to nc shows several of these circulations. there will almost certainly be tropical downpours this afternoon and evening throughout the tri-state...city included. instability has two maxima - one this afternoon/evening and a more impressive one in the pre-dawn hours of saturday. i think that's the best shot for lightning, tho the risk is non-zero ~2-7PM.
  8. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 955 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 ...Summary of Blizzard Conditions for the January 4, 2018 Winter Storm... The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to further review by the National Weather Service. A blizzard occurred on Thursday, January 4, 2018 over Long Island as well as portions of New York City, the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. The official definition of a blizzard is: -Sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph -Considerable falling and/or blowing snow -Visibility frequently reduced to less than 1/4 mile (see note below) -Occurs for three hours or more Note - for this analysis, automated surface observing system visibility reports equal to 1/4 mile were included due to the nature of the sensor. At Kennedy International Airport, Blizzard criteria were reported from 810 AM to 143 PM EST. At La Guardia Airport, Blizzard criteria were reported from 751 AM to 151 PM EST. At Long Island MacArthur Airport (Islip, NY), blizzard criteria were reported from 756 AM to 140 PM and 326 PM to 456 PM EST. At Republic Airport (Farmingdale, NY), blizzard criteria were reported from 806 AM to 331 PM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. At Brookhaven Airport (Shirley, NY), blizzard criteria were reported from 856 AM to 1156 AM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. At Francis S Gabreski Airport (Westhampton Beach, NY), blizzard criteria were reported from 848 AM to 353 PM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. At Westchester County Airport (White Plains, NY), blizzard criteria were reported from 856 AM to 256 PM EST. At Igor I Sikorsky Memorial Airport (Bridgeport, CT), blizzard criteria were reported from 852 AM to 1232 PM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. At Danbury Municipal Airport (Danbury, CT), blizzard criteria were reported from 1053 AM to 353 PM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. At Groton-New London Airport (Groton, CT), blizzard criteria were reported from 826 AM to 256 PM EST. The present weather sensor failed, but snow was verified by radar. Elsewhere across the Tri-State, near-blizzard conditions occurred at Central Park, NY, Newark Liberty International Airport (Newark, NJ), Teterboro Airport (Teterboro, NJ), Tweed New Haven Airport (New Haven, CT), and Meriden Markham Municipal Airport (Meriden, CT). These locations failed to meet the length of time criteria for winds and/or visibilities.
  9. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    could be inadequate measuring in this case, but it absolutely occurs in arctic air. the upper midwest and lakes regularly see clippers and lake effect events that produce 30:1+ ratios.
  10. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    for most of the event here in bk and at work in lic, there were large flakes in the air. i think the wind does break them up once they hit the ground, which is how the pack ends up dense. snow:liquid ratios varied quite a bit in the city (11:1 at LGA, 17:1 at JFK), which to me is a testament of how hard it is to measure both liquid and snow depth in a blizzard. in reality, those ratios likely vary considerably hour to hour depending on whether lift is through the dendritic growth zone. it certainly was higher in those 30+ DBZ fronto bands and then lower as those bands move off. strangely, snow:liquid ratios in southern new england were 20-50:1.
  11. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    haha yup, i was thinking the same thing.
  12. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    JFK closed until 12Z because every time they clear runways, blowing snow drifts back over them. That is most certainly not a quality of dense snow.
  13. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    ISP: 15.8" as of 00Z
  14. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Based on latest METARs, prelim amounts were as follows: JFK: 8.0" LGA: 7.4" EWR: 8.4"
  15. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    12Z NAM banding maps and latest RAP soundings show potential for 1"/hr rates in that 2nd band between now and 5PM.
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