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purduewx80

Meteorologist
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About purduewx80

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    Brooklyn, NY

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  1. purduewx80

    December Discussion

    it's you (or the data source/type).
  2. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    happens all the time in short-term and long-term forecasting.
  3. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    250mb winds came in at 193KT on the 00Z sounding, 1KT shy of the record. There were some 198KT obs just below 250.
  4. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    Looks like the heaviest snow from this norlun trough is currently falling to the N and E of ACY. The Brigantine cam shows this nicely. Thermal/lift profiles easily suggest localized 1-2"/hr rates are probable along the coast today.
  5. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    Bit of a norlun feature showing up over central NJ tomorrow. The ocean will come into play, producing steep low-level lapse rates that tap squarely into the DGZ. The inverted trof feature develops as a result of the incoming upper vort. I doubt that hi-res has nailed the location of this yet, but areas near ACY to as far north as BLM are in play. The probability for the city to see snowfall Wednesday appears to be slim, however. Some guidance indicates the potential for a max of 2-4" should the tail end of this feature set up inland. Most of the guidance w/ available soundings show 200-300 j/kg of CAPE where low-level lapse rates max out around 7.5.
  6. purduewx80

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    I've seen countless instances where a jet was not initialized properly until it was sampled on the West Coast...specifically while living and forecasting in the Midwest. Because of the way models are initialized, there is rarely going to be an instantaneous change in the modeling given new obs, which is why the trends are important to watch. I am curious to see whether the introduction of higher-res GOES-16 and GOES-17 data changes this.
  7. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    meteorologists don't look at ensemble average snowfall a week+ in advance to predict whether or not there may be a storm.
  8. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    12Z Euro a big hit next weekend...double digits.
  9. Owing to narrow fgen forcing, good jet config and steep lapse rates aloft, this could be a very localized overperformer (1-2") this afternoon, probably terrain-favored as NJwx alluded to yesterday. Could be a surprise in/near the city too despite the warm layers in the soundings.
  10. purduewx80

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    00z EPS next Saturday is about as good a signal for a d10-11 storm as you can get. It also trended more in favor on just about every major 500mb feature in play.
  11. purduewx80

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    Flights holding for ORD's runway treatments are leaving holding pattern contrails:
  12. purduewx80

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    pretty much a slam dunk blizzard for chicagoland is incoming. convection feeding into the ccb is always a good sign that gravity waves will easily penetrate down to the surface. same as in ghd2. that's a wall of snow incoming on radar, too.
  13. the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada.
  14. purduewx80

    11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

    I'm impressed. Crazy work day that has never gone by faster. The latest iterations of the HRRR and RPM bring convective precip farther south tomorrow morning, directly affecting NYC around 12Z/7ET. This one could go out with a bang, too.
  15. purduewx80

    11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

    mixing line racing north in PHL area now
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