You can already see the right-moving cells in WI on some of the longer composite loops.
It appears all the differences in guidance for S WI and N IL come down to breaking the cap. Will have to watch that cell in WI even though it may move off the instability axis in the next hour or two. It will lay out a mesoscale boundary near the warm front that may also enhance a lake breeze and its associated convergence in east-central and southeast WI, for a potential initiation area. It's hard to ignore the consistency of the ECMWF and HRGEM to initiate cells back near MSN, DBQ, RFD, but we definitely need to think about a strong cap holding things back today.
Mid-level lapse rates have been observed near 9C/km at OAX and DVN this morning:
That plus a ~70KT mid-level jet forecast to overspread the region should allow for quick supercell development around 5-6PM - these will eventually grow upscale into that long, SE-moving squall line overnight.