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About purduewx80

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  1. ECMWF ensembles have had the right pattern for it for days. It's actually not all that different from the pattern that produced Sandy, minus the tropical input of course.
  2. looks to be a rather wet evening for the metro. guidance hinting at overrunning cells after a bow of sorts transitions through, so i think we'll see some flash flooding in areas, mostly during the overnight.
  3. it's chaff, likely from the air force. not precip.
  4. LGA just observed a ~2.7"/hr rainfall rate (1.09" in 24 min actual):
  5. forky and njwx are on the money. the low level jet currently producing convective showers in the dc area and points south is forecast to be overhead from ~midnight-9am. lwx radar is showing widespread 40kt winds aloft, with embedded 50kt maxima in convection. the hrrr, rap and other hi-res models suggest several impulses embedded in the flow will enhance showers periodically during that period. with pwats of 2-2.3", we will all see plenty of rain. as long as it clears out some behind the morning round, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front tomorrow afternoon/eve. that qpf max forecast by most guidance upstate towards boston is associated with frontogenesis and will likely be narrower than most models show. there are signs of a second sfc low developing near jersey or the delmarva later tomorrow, so i think there could be a second precip max just sw-thru-e of the city.
  6. purduewx80

    Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

    maue is posting them on his twitter. click his link to see live updates.
  7. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Florence

    watching and analyzing every single operational run is fairly pointless this far out. keep an eye on the ensembles and overall trends. i think the best forecasting tool right now is the observed bias for the west atlantic ridge to be weakened too soon in the extended period. assuming that ridge will be longer-lived and more robust than modeled - especially on the GFS - has been useful going back through last winter.
  8. purduewx80

    Tropical Depression Gordon

    hurricane-force winds showing up at ~7000' now in that developing eyewall.
  9. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Florence

    12Z GEM and ECM nearly on top of each other at D10 near the Outer Banks. GEM ensemble mean is farther S. Curious to see the 12Z EPS.
  10. exactly. i'd add that august is climo for this due to peak SSTs and weak steering flow.
  11. purduewx80

    Excessive Rainfall and Thunderstorm Event

    JFK picked up 1.84", much of that falling in under an hour. radar estimates show around 2.5" just east of the airport. looks like another cluster of showers is building west along a very narrow wedge of untouched warm/humid air between the southern outflow boundary and the coast. JFK reporting CBs all quads, so it looks like there could be another round at the airport. may also die out just to the east.
  12. agreed. like that event, parts of the northeast may see double digit rainfall totals sat-tues. some guidance suggests that is reachable even w/ tomorrow's event.
  13. the urban heat island, which is nothing new. you'd expect warming to intensify (esp overnights) as urban areas expand outwards. warm nearby water temps also do not allow for radiational cooling.
  14. circulation went right over LGA
  15. purduewx80

    July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    the atmosphere is already extremely unstable. that first cell has produced new cells on its outflow boundary, so in that sense, yes, it is causing more storms to develop. it's all a chain reaction that will continue into the late afternoon hours.