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About purduewx80

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    Brooklyn, NY
  1. March 2018 Model Discussion

    the NAO dip comes with the cold shot this weekend, then it eases back towards neutral or positive when this storm is being modeled on the 20th/21st.
  2. squalls this evening may be more impressive than yesterday's. would not be at all surprised to see +SHSN given steep lapse rates from the sfc to 600mb that tap the DGZ. probably will be a few cgs over the mountains this afternoon, as well.
  3. March 2018 Model Discussion

    EPS has been a bit more reliable on the indices lately so I’m giving it a little more weight. This version of GEFS agrees. That said, the lingering blockiness can’t be ignored. The transition of seasons and shorter wavelengths can very much lead to different outcomes than we’re used to in the dead of winter.
  4. March 2018 Model Discussion

    That front end thump does actually make some sense. This is going to be another one of those that changes on every operational run. Almost all the energy hangs out off the coast of AK/BC/PacNW until Sat night or Sunday.
  5. March 2018 Model Discussion

    850 anomalies absolutely ease up, as do 2m temps on everything I'm seeing. Depending on storm track and given snow cover up north, there is definitely the potential for freezing rain near you. Way too early to get this cute though. I'm just saying the overall pattern and current ensembles suggest heavy snow would likely be farther N and NE.
  6. March 2018 Model Discussion

    the fri-sat air mass is colder but it rots by monday-tuesday. the high position looks to be near hudson bay for the tuesday storm and the pna drops, so our SE/Atlantic ridge would probably do its dirty work.
  7. March 2018 Model Discussion

    ensembles and teleconnections suggest a rainy scenario for most of this sub-forum.
  8. You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP.
  9. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    there is no such thing as a blizzard watch anymore. winter storm watches are the only heads up now. the blizzard warning would be issued once confidence is high.
  10. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    The storm was within 30 miles of bm yup, passed *just* south of the benchmark, similar to the 12Z rgem, tho a good 15-20mb weaker in the model.
  11. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    sort of? the overall large-scale trough, if measured from the center of the mid-level northern stream low to the center of the southern vort - is negative tilt. the jan 4 system developed early and got pulled into that negative tilt instead of being kicked out to sea like a lot of guidance showed. some of it comes down to sensitivity to convection, but it's also very much down to timing of both pieces of mid-level energy and the strength of their associated jets. SSTs are still very warm over the atlantic, which i think will play some part in this.
  12. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    nah, they're not the same.
  13. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    def early signs the ecm will come n/w with this. northern stream is digging more and slightly farther w. ridge out w is stronger. low over ns is slower to move tho.
  14. March 12th - 13th Scraper

    this last system over-corrected on the GFS/NAM 24-36h ahead of time, so i definitely am cautious. late in la nina winters in the midwest (where i'm from), there was frequently a tendency 1-2 days ahead of an event for US guidance to over-correct NW, especially with a -AO. it was always clearest when ECM, UK, GEM and the overall consensus were to the S/E of US guidance.