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About purduewx80

  • Birthday 05/21/1980

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    Humboldt Park, Chicago

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  1. more excited for the chance of a thunderstorm late this evening than anything. will also be glad to get rid of most of the dirty snow/streets/sidewalks. hope the flooding doesn't get out of hand.
  2. Lake ice is definitely shifting N on the S winds today (click to zoom). Most of this along the south shore and near Chicago will be gone after tomorrow's blustery, mild day. Not sure how much it'll matter for any lake enhancement, but it can't hurt to have more open water.
  3. There are roughly three periods where northern areas will have favorable support from the upper jet dynamics. These setups usually produce banded snows, and it's not something you'll see on modeled QPF. How much snow they produce depends on whether the best frontogenesis and lift correspond with the DGZ. The most impressive period for this setup is on Thursday - circled below is the right rear quad of a ~190KT jet streak. Should some of the more southern solutions verify (with a less amped SE/E Coast ridge and a pig-headed PV over Ontario/Quebec instead of Hudson Bay), these dynamics end up farther south.
  4. Yep, the lake will contribute for sure but almost certainly not to the degree of last Feb's system. If this were lake effect alone, inversion heights are shallow and the boundary layer cloud depths just tap into the DGZ, so it wouldn't be anything wild. Given synoptic support/seeding and a lack of shear in the boundary layer, I think it'll still be an efficient process.
  5. The lake contribution would be excellent with this temp profile; super deep saturation and DGZ:
  6. 2.5" the past hour in Humboldt, vis well below 1/4SM. Just over 3" total so far.
  7. If other guidance trends heavier with East Coast snow like it has, it will more likely end up in IL. There’s a pretty strong correlation to this type of Nor’easter and Chicago lake effect because of the more NE vs N flow.
  8. Have yet to see any blowing snow or accumulating snow in the city. There is barely 1-2" left that partially melted yesterday when it was above freezing for 12+ hours and then crusted over this morning.
  9. One of the main convergent bands so far is setting up near where models have the max totals. Kenosha and Racine Counties east of 94 should have the best overlap of synoptic seeding and lake effect cloud top temps favorable for dendrites. Lake (IL) and far N Cook should do p well, too.
  10. Correct. It's their other web graphics that use 10:1.
  11. Pretty interesting evolution locally last night. In the GeoColor CIRA image below, there is some wildfire smoke (and possibly dust) evident over the Great Lakes, which no doubt came from the Plains late yesterday. All the local obs dropped below 6SM in HZ as dry air surged in (subsidence? dry line?) behind the remnant showers. Note the pressure rises, drop in dews and slow temperature fall at ORD.
  12. The sting jet is evident w/ CAA back in KS. Have been some 65-75KT+ wind gusts reported with it. Numerous, large wildfires are flaring up as a result of the very windy & dry conditions.
  13. Obviously going to be a struggle for the warning mets today, everything is changing so quickly and every little notch in the line has some rotation to it. Quite a few TDS-confirmed tornadoes already are occurring.
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