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About purduewx80

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  1. The Koreas and Hokkaido have open water between them and a cold continent, so their snowfall often comes from sea/ocean-effect.
  2. 12Z UKMET says watch the 2nd wave this weekend. Friday's trough forces it farther S/E such that cold air and precip overlap.
  3. I'm of the opinion -NAO blocking will be more likely this winter due to being near the solar minimum and having some of the warmest water in the Arctic in the Davis Strait. Last year the + SST anomalies were more impressive over the Barents Sea (N of Europe/Russia) and, like this year, near Alaska.
  4. yeah, the SE ridge definitely makes appearances on all the guidance. really not much point in talking about what one set of model runs shows in 10+ days this time of year (or any?). there has been a lot of volatility in the ops and ensembles.
  5. This is the feature that should help develop heavier showers Monday night. We'll be in the left front quad of a curved 500 jet streak, with significant diffluence aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates moving in.
  6. Despite whatever the lower-res NAM is showing, most guidance indicates the trough currently over the Midwest phases w/ the offshore system, allowing the rain shield to expand over the area late tomorrow. Ensemble guidance shows that precip amounts could reach 0.25-0.5" for the city by Tuesday AM.
  7. It seems kinda obvious from the 3-letter id, no? The airport's address is in Avoca, not Scranton or WB.
  8. guess it's time to block you again. all the precip is behind the front, which is literally the very definition of anafrontal.
  9. Right rear quad of the ~150KT jet max doin’ it’s thang.
  10. climo was definitely a big part of the bust, imo. hard to go all in on a historic early-season storm like that. the other interesting forecast aspect is that 1000-500 thicknesses were fairly high/mild due to the short-wave ridging in place. 850-700, 1000-850 and 1000-700 thicknesses were much better tools in determining snow vs mix/rain.
  11. The new GFS actually wasn't half bad, thanks to its cold bias. Various runs of the ECMWF also did well.
  12. 100% false. This was posted on the last page, but that jet structure is highly favorable for anafrontal banded precip. As usual it comes down to the timing of the colder and drier air.
  13. TEB reporting flurries now, anyone else seeing them?