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About purduewx80

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  1. exactly. i'd add that august is climo for this due to peak SSTs and weak steering flow.
  2. purduewx80

    Excessive Rainfall and Thunderstorm Event

    JFK picked up 1.84", much of that falling in under an hour. radar estimates show around 2.5" just east of the airport. looks like another cluster of showers is building west along a very narrow wedge of untouched warm/humid air between the southern outflow boundary and the coast. JFK reporting CBs all quads, so it looks like there could be another round at the airport. may also die out just to the east.
  3. agreed. like that event, parts of the northeast may see double digit rainfall totals sat-tues. some guidance suggests that is reachable even w/ tomorrow's event.
  4. the urban heat island, which is nothing new. you'd expect warming to intensify (esp overnights) as urban areas expand outwards. warm nearby water temps also do not allow for radiational cooling.
  5. circulation went right over LGA
  6. purduewx80

    July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    the atmosphere is already extremely unstable. that first cell has produced new cells on its outflow boundary, so in that sense, yes, it is causing more storms to develop. it's all a chain reaction that will continue into the late afternoon hours.
  7. purduewx80

    July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    it's going to be very active today just N and W of the city. if things line up that could survive into NYC area. long island more protected tho. friday looks like a long squall line coming through ahead of such a strong front.
  8. purduewx80

    may 10-16 convection

    good call NJWX....about to upgrade to MDT almost exactly where you have it.
  9. purduewx80

    may 10-16 convection

    last few runs of the HRRR showing 60-80KT just above the surface with the line coming thru NYC. makes sense given where convection is developing now for a bow/qlcs to take direct aim. i do think there will be a few tornadoes, but as SPC says the most favored is along the boundary in the northern part of where you've circled, just N of NJ.
  10. purduewx80

    May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    the perfect day at jacob riis. hot sun, cooling breeze.
  11. 18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
  12. ~65KT showing up at 1000' and 75KT at 3000-5000' on local radars. horrible day to be flying due to all the shear. airports and the airspace are a mess. there are a lot of mesoscale circulations in the, for lack of a better term, tropical feeder bands associated with the warm conveyor. very cool things happening meteorologically today.
  13. it's been absolutely stellar the past couple days. nailed all the nuances of convection in florida and the southeast yesterday.
  14. purduewx80

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    There are considerable timing differences in the models still...anywhere from Friday night to Saturday night. Hopefully we can clear that up a bit in the next 24h.
  15. purduewx80

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    no it isn't