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About purduewx80

  • Birthday 05/21/1980

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    Humboldt Park, Chicago

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  1. It isn't going to take that much heating to achieve the convective temp seen on local upper air soundings this morning (probably by noon in IA/WI). That convective trigger temp is anywhere from 69-74F (72F on the DVN sounding below). It may not even need to reach that high to get things going with the two MCVs approaching, a number of surface convergence areas and differential heating. Faster mid-level flow is found just S of the NW Missouri MCV and should make it up to about I-80, so that may be the limit to the potential for more organized severe wx. I am personally 100% ok w/ a garden variety storm at this point. Storm motions will not be all that fast so some of us will pick up a prolonged downpour.
  2. Should get an MCV or two out of this to help kick things off early tomorrow afternoon and also locally enhance the severe threat. Pretty big timing difference in hi-res and globals. The AM upper low will have to get out of the way to achieve sufficient instability, which seems doable. Curious to see how this interacts with the outflow/front across WI or northern IL too.
  3. RGEM nailing it around here today and gets ORD to 86 tomorrow.
  4. Latest Euro valid at 1PM Wednesday for Aurora: 0-3km lapse rates are 9.6C/km and the equilibrium level is more than cold enough for lightning (threshold is ~-30C). The freezing level is near 2000', but any heavy precip would be just enough to bring snow in the core of any potential convective cells.
  5. Wherever tomorrow doesn’t deliver, there may be a risk for heavy snow showers Wednesday under the cold core. ECMWF area forecast sounding for LOT’s CWA below - point soundings from it and the NAMs show some potential for TSSN. I believe we had a similar April setup in ~2016 that produced local squalls w lightning and thunder.
  6. There's a subtle mesolow the HRRR has been hinting at currently in eastern IL. The front has more or less stalled over Newton & Benton counties in IN as that low lifts northwards ahead of a decent s/w trough; it'll probably stall over Lake Co shortly. Will be a decent focus for showers and embedded storms with a heavy rain threat along and to the west of it. Any isolated severe threat will be just east across the rest of IN into SW MI.
  7. Perhaps a non-zero mini-sup/tornado threat ahead of the front early this afternoon, where winds stay backed from the SE. Should be some good local downpours given the high PWATs and slow progression of the front. Judging by where the front is currently, the higher threat locally is probably across NW IN into MI. 12Z NAMNEST near the IL/IN border at 3PM:
  8. Is it though? https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/04/06/health/youth-sports-covid-spread-wellness/index.html
  9. Up to 70 at O’Hare, finally. 1st of the year.
  10. Getting vaccinated prevents the vast majority of vaccinated people from catching COVID and unknowingly passing it on to others. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html
  11. Oh look. Another racist false equivalency.
  12. this doesn't go nearly far enough in addressing the rampant racism in this thread. do better.
  13. Postponed to an as-yet-determined date by the severe weather this week. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-announce-major-upgrades-to-us-weather-model
  14. I'm not pretending anything. This is all well-documented. I see your random internet article and raise you another random internet article with many, many valid counterpoints. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fewer-black-americans-are-getting-the-covid-19-vaccine-no-its-not-hesitancy/