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purduewx80

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  1. JFK gusting over 50MPH now: KJFK 10/30/2017 02:19:26 GMT 130 27 G44KT KJFK 10/30/2017 02:17:23 GMT 130 27 G44KT KJFK 10/30/2017 02:15:28 GMT 130 32 G44KT KJFK 10/30/2017 02:13:26 GMT 130 25 G41KT KJFK 10/30/2017 02:11:24 GMT 120 24 G33KT
  2. depends which airport, but there will be major delays and cancellations at all 3 metro airports sunday and monday. wx will be impactful to aviation first thing sunday morning and only worsens from there.
  3. it gets absorbed if the convection and mid- to upper-level circulations get sheared away. the 00Z EPS and 12Z Euro make slightly more sense to me right now than the micro-canes we continue to see on various guidance.
  4. it had collapsed but is quickly redeveloping in N/E quads. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-24-1-100
  5. yep - seeing widespread freezing drizzle under the dry slot now (DSM, MCI, STL, BMI). the less reliable awos sites reporting low vis and mist are likely seeing fzdz, too. nice banding showing up in nrn IA, nrn IL and WI in response to mid-level frontogenesis through the dgz. the spc 700-500mb fronto product bears this out nicely. should see some ~1-hr rates that will last longer to the north of chicago. the upper jet coming in tomorrow evening should mean business. there will be some lake enhancement as the inverted trof/future arctic front over lake michigan swings through ern WI and nern IL (on its way to the lake effect belts) at around the same time.
  6. despite whatever qpf or mesoscale setups guidance is throwing out - one synoptic thing that is fairly well agreed upon is the storm track from just north of STL, thru LAF to ~DTW. that's classic for heavy snow in chicago. water vapor loops are pretty sick over the northeast pacific right now. that's a lot of unique energy for the models to decipher. should note this is being fed by tropical convection. slam some of that into this arctic outbreak we're having - and boom.
  7. looks like snow on snow this evening for northeastern IA and the WI/IL border areas. guidance now trending towards a narrow and short-lived but likely moderate to heavy band of snow with warm advection ahead of the incoming arctic front. some of the areas that saw the better totals with this weekend's storm are likely to pick up a quick 2-3". i was in madison, wi, during the winter of 07-08. this is quickly starting to remind me of that december - a few decent storms intermingled with nickel-and-dimers left and right. it'll be interesting to see how many climate sites can reach top ten snowiest decembers in the lakes this year.
  8. round 1 of storms through chicago now. impressive lightning for this time of year. should be at least 1 more coming ahead of the front.
  9. a good setup for localized flash flooding is in place over far southern wisconsin into much of illinois today, with steering flow ~10kt, substantial low level moisture under a slow-moving upper trough and localized convergence provided by a weak cold front, outflow boundaries and a lake breeze boundary. with the instability axis where it is, the best chance for training may be from JVL/RFD to the western and southern Chicago burbs. with time the activity should re-form on outflow boundaries while generally developing slowly to the east-southeast. wouldn't be surprised to see a 4+" total somewhere in the region today.
  10. that system already has an mcv with it, so it should be self-maintaining through late evening. with the outflow boundary now quickly retreating, it looks to be back in chicagoland if not north and east as the system rides almost due south. have to wonder if we'll see a warm advective wing light up this evening with a modest uptick in the low level jet oriented nearly perpendicular to the old boundary. if it does light up, then there will be some slower moving cells capable of flooding rain and perhaps brief tornadoes.
  11. gonna be difficult to get missed tonight. having terrible luck flying out of ORD lately....leave for SFO just before 4Z tonight. may be close.
  12. next MCS is probably in its beginning stages east of the twin cities. should ride the old outflow se/sse this evening. the effective front may not make it back north of chicago until the weekend. given how high dews already are, how they will tend to pool along the warm side of the outflow boundary, and the wetness of the past few weeks over the corn belt, think it's possible we see some legit mid-80s dews show up this evening.
  13. ORD at 90 now....should be about it for the day. lake breeze has some oomph to it with that bubble high over the lake.
  14. that long-lived cell in northeast ND has the potential to grow upscale this evening with low level jet support. should ride the instability axis or possibly gradient into minnesota. some guidance indicates a warm advective wing that could easily produce flash flooding across the state into western wisconsin, eastern iowa and northwest il overnight into wednesday morning.