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purduewx80

Meteorologist
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  1. pretty incredible heat wave showing up on 12Z guidance, but there are timing differences between the op runs and their ensembles. the spread is anywhere from sept 29 thru oct 4, with peak temps in the mid-90s suggested at the usual hot spots. how far east and north the heat makes it will depend on the surface high being centered to the south of one's location, allowing for some form of westerly flow. as we've seen recently, high heights do not translate to heat if easterly flow prevails. the apparent lack of rain between then and now, already dry soils and surface temps exceeding guidance the past few days suggest the potential is there for historic heat across a large portion of the mid-atlantic and perhaps parts of the northeast near the beginning of the new month. overwhelming ensemble and model support leads to higher than normal confidence for a hot outcome at this range. still, plenty could change between now and then.
  2. if any nearby sensor can do it in the expected pattern, it'll be EWR.
  3. disagree. if the ensembles are onto the right idea, we'll be flirting with near-record heat some of those days. obviously the core of the anomalous heat will be in the ohio valley, midwest to the southern mid-atlantic. temps well into the 80s would be on par with july normals.
  4. purduewx80

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    A little surprised the Gulf disturbance doesn't have higher probs. At the least this is going to be a flooding concern in the Houston area as the developing low gets trapped under the ridge for 2-3 days.
  5. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Humberto

    if...(IF)...this happens, it would be because the jet stream sheared the convection off the storm and it's low-level circulation gets caught up in high pressure. so it wouldn't be a hurricane anymore.
  6. it escapes, moot at this point though.
  7. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Humberto

    Yes, the 2PM update from NHC says it's on track. The latest ASCAT passes do not show a closed circulation but those thunderstorms are firing over the best area of low-level convergence.
  8. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Humberto

    my best guess on a potential low-level circulation:
  9. purduewx80

    Major Hurricane Humberto

    Still a bit too early to be sure, but early morning vis sat suggests a broad low-level circulation is developing N/NE of where the NHC has it X'd, likely just N of the Turks and Caicos. As long as convection persists in this area today, I think the northern/eastern/offshore (for now) solutions should work out. Gulf risk still there but likely decreasing. 06Z ECMWF pretty similar to the 00Z thru hour 90.
  10. seeing a quick increase in low-level winds on the local dopplers, too. TJFK showing ~45MPH at 1500-2000'.
  11. been a few storms just S of LI all morning, wouldn't be surprised to see a rogue lightning strike or two around this afternoon as the upper jet amplifies in the perfect spot for lift
  12. I think that's more of a downburst over the harbor. TJFK is on the lower right portion of the image, so it doesn't really indicate rotational shear.
  13. add another to JFK's 75+. currently 81/75.
  14. purduewx80

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    slower dorian + deeper lakes s/w. definitely worth watching next few runs.
  15. there've been a few out there today.
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