purduewx80

Been thinking about this a lot, mostly in terms of whether it leads to subsidence and stability issues in the MDR.

That dirt was ruined when modern ag took over.

This is the exact type of thing you'd expect to see in a warming planet with warming oceans. Record precipitable water on the Slidell, LA sounding last night, for March, April and early May.

Not sure why I find this so funny, but NOAA issued a La Niña Watch. It's pretty clear that sub-surface cooling is impacting the surface in the EPAC now.

This most likely will change between now and then, but the frontogenesis progged on today's NAM runs in OK and adjacent areas is sick. There's upright and slantwise instability feeding into it, which makes sense with the intensifying and closed-off 500 mb feature. That's a good 2"+/hr TSSN signal if these amped up scenarios verify.

The moisture-laden warm sector looks fairly narrow on Friday, which may be limiting, while warming mid-level temperatures as the potent low moves north actually act to decrease instability compared to what is progged north of the warm front earlier in the day. I think elevated supercells may actually be likely in the warm air advection pattern midday into the southern Appalachians and Piedmont, which should present a very large hail risk given the extreme shear. Perhaps some of these will interact with the warm front in the afternoon. Shear vectors are more perpendicular to the pre-frontal trough/pseudo-dryline as compared to yesterday, so perhaps a few tornadic supercells can get going later in the day, as well. There certainly may be a better risk for surface-based storms closer to the Gulf Coast and eventually the East Coast given the proximity to better instability.

The excess lightning y'all reported may be at least partially due to aerosols from the Saharan Air Layer that streamed into the region yesterday. There is some evidence from this study and master's thesis to support that potential.

A cooler-than-normal warm season is not at all surprising, especially if we do end up going into a Super Nino this year. Still, they won't be perfect analogs given the climatology this map uses and major differences in SST patterns elsewhere.

8.4C/km at New Orleans this morning:

Loving the new SPC sounding climo page. Check out how anomalous the observed shear was at Little Rock this morning:

The deep layer of dry air that may cause LCL/capping/moisture issues is clearly evident on 12Z soundings over the Plains this morning, where Gulf return moisture looks great at first glance.

Fire weather is severe weather, too. OK and southern KS seeing dozens of wildfires in the past 15-20 minutes.

Oh no. How will excess capitalism ever recover? Good luck, y’all. Will miss being in Chicago for this.

Huge hail for a couple minutes in ATL just now. Biggest stone I found is 2.1”.