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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. Have yet to see any blowing snow or accumulating snow in the city. There is barely 1-2" left that partially melted yesterday when it was above freezing for 12+ hours and then crusted over this morning.
  2. One of the main convergent bands so far is setting up near where models have the max totals. Kenosha and Racine Counties east of 94 should have the best overlap of synoptic seeding and lake effect cloud top temps favorable for dendrites. Lake (IL) and far N Cook should do p well, too.
  3. Correct. It's their other web graphics that use 10:1.
  4. Pretty interesting evolution locally last night. In the GeoColor CIRA image below, there is some wildfire smoke (and possibly dust) evident over the Great Lakes, which no doubt came from the Plains late yesterday. All the local obs dropped below 6SM in HZ as dry air surged in (subsidence? dry line?) behind the remnant showers. Note the pressure rises, drop in dews and slow temperature fall at ORD.
  5. The sting jet is evident w/ CAA back in KS. Have been some 65-75KT+ wind gusts reported with it. Numerous, large wildfires are flaring up as a result of the very windy & dry conditions.
  6. Obviously going to be a struggle for the warning mets today, everything is changing so quickly and every little notch in the line has some rotation to it. Quite a few TDS-confirmed tornadoes already are occurring.
  7. Very curious to see how the SPC and WFOs handle that tonight. LOT already forecasting severe wind gusts with the showers. About as much lead time as you'll ever see in a TAF.
  8. Hatched tor probs look good. Think supercells are a bit more likely in NW/NC IA into SC/SE MN just S/SW of Minneapolis - this is where deep layer shear is a little more perpendicular to the dryline/pre-frontal trough. MOD is definitely warranted for the wind. Derecho followed by strong synoptic winds and then cold weather is going to be ugly.
  9. My dad was doing some work on their property today and found this photo. Took my mom ~2 hours to find its owner on a Facebook group. It traveled about 168 miles from the Eddyville, KY, area, near the north end of Land Between the Lakes.
  10. I was trying and apparently failed to say the caveat is definitely instability. The Gulf is wide open, and the Euro shows what is possible. The EPS has been showing increasing probs for a high end event, as well. I'm not saying there will be a lot of tornadoes, but some of the LEWPs embedded in the line should have no trouble producing. Widespread severe winds is the slam dunk here.
  11. Decent chance it will. Low-level shear is outrageous but deep-layer shear suggests storms will quickly line out. Could be a mix of sups and LEWPs that produce after dark tomorrow imo. There are many indicators for long-trackers should the Euro's forecast instability materialize. Any capping there would easily be overcome by the dynamics ahead of the rapidly deepening, neg tilt 500mb wave. Below is an area avg sounding from the NE ~quarter of IA at 00Z tmrw eve.
  12. Had a bit of a personal scare with the Bowling Green tornado. I was visiting my folks in the Louisville area Friday night, in town for my gramma's 90th birthday. The BG tornado passed not quite a quarter of a mile south of my brother's place ("Ben" on the RadarScope images below). We couldn't get ahold of him until later Saturday morning due to the power/cell outages. Fortunately, he was OK, made it out of town eventually and in time for the birthday party. He mentioned hearing two tornadoes, the northern-most of which dissipated first. Didn't find any debris from the long-track ("Mayfield") tornado at my parents place in IN, but just saw this article on CNN from someone across the river from Louisville who found a picture from 150 miles away. This passed over Louisville during UPS' busy period at SDF. I have not heard for sure but I imagine a few of their jets may have ingested some of this on approach.
  13. Getting, by far, our strongest gusts of the event right now - estimating near 50MPH at times. The power has been flickering off and on, which I've never had happen in the city.
  14. Storm motions will be on the order of 50-60MPH+.
  15. Chicago has a program in place to treat what they estimate to be 85,000 ash trees on public property. You can even report suspected infections on the city's 311 site. That pic was on a boulevard w/ ~20 of them, all treated, tagged and healthy. In some ways I guess it's easier to take care of them in a city than in large, rural groves. My dad has saved a few on his property in southern IN, as they're one of his favorites.
  16. Ash trees have been slowly turning here for a couple weeks. Probably muted colors this year with the drought hangover and late warmth. Looking forward to a few downpours later, if everything goes right.
  17. Many should make a run for 90 deg today, though ORD could get 89'd again depending on how fast the front sneaks down the lake. DVN's 850 T was 23C at 12Z, which is the warmest so late in the year (by one day). Full sun, dry soils and good mixing potential all favorable for overachieving even the warmest of guidance.
  18. tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+. pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today.
  19. That is most definitely not how you read that. It's the altimeter, which was 29.22" or around 989.5mb. Looks like he deleted both tweets fortunately.
  20. The HRRR late-CI bias is in full effect today given TS in the QC already. Its coverage is probably too low given the lake breeze boundary and strong MCV moving in during peak heating, but it overall seems to have the right idea for IL/IN this eve. Probably some pulse severe wind but mainly heavy rain given the weak shear and slow storm motions. Definitely some uncertainty tomorrow on the best overlap of shear and CAPE - SPC seems to be playing the farther S scenario for now which make sense if the effective front is shoved south by TS tonight. On the other hand, the 18Z HRRR is definitely showing a D-word scenario up into SE MN. IMO the training/flood setup tomorrow night has a pretty high ceiling in parts of the region.
  21. Today has definitely been an interesting setup that relied 100% on nowcasting. In aviation we try to come up with a convective forecast that helps the FAA plan routes in and out of the area (mainly for ORD) - been one of the lower confidence days of the summer given zero model support. If you read through all of LOT's AFDs today, you'll see how the forecast has been evolving back and forth as conditions change. At one point we thought the dry air observed on the 12Z OAX sounding would inhibit TS this far south, but it seems to me the corn belt helped with moisture flux from the surface up to the 925-800mb level. This all resulted in MLCAPE rapidly increasing this afternoon (which the NAM has done well with despite mostly missing the actual wx). Definitely not the best time to be flying into O'Hare today.
  22. Supercells on the N side of the outflow boundary are pretty interesting. Looks like a fairly narrow corridor of extreme low-level shear w/ NNE winds on the cold side of the boundary and SSW winds just above.
  23. Destabilizing very quickly now thanks to incredibly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level moisture transport. I don't really see the stratus the SPC mentions in their latest discussion as a hindrance to an increase in TS development this evening given the advective processes ahead of several well-established mesocyclones. Confirmed tornado east of Mineral Point now - in the worst spot for radar detection, but the meso is obviously impressive (via KDVN).
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