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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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GFS para H5 evolution looks like something you'd expect from the craziest ARW SREF member.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Para now a driving rainstorm heading into NYC, so much for the East trend

Well the trend of it being all by itself hasn’t changed though lol.  Though I will say there were signs of the other models at least trying to form something tonight (minus the clown range NAM)

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I am actually surprised the FV3 hasn't caved to showing nothing, also it is a bit of a red flag that the other models are at least trying to do something especially that we are now roughly 4-5 days away.

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56 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually surprised the FV3 hasn't caved to showing nothing, also it is a bit of a red flag that the other models are at least trying to do something especially that we are now roughly 4-5 days away.

I agree. Doesn't have to mean a big storm is likely, but I think some sort of compromise is in order.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro isn't fracturing and retrograding that SW near the front range of the Rockies this run....

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the original N stream that drop down over the PNA ridge that was formerly getting retrograded, now phases with another n stream wave that drops through the great lakes....late bloomer?

Too bad the s stream escapes.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. compromise in the works....998mb near BM...maybe hair south.

 

Sounds like options are still on the table. It should be an interesting next 24 hours of model watching to see if anything becomes of the late week potential which is all it is right now. 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...def. late bloom-job.....hook and latter for ME....stalls over maratimes.

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you what...that PV near Greenland is phasing in at the last moment. Speed that up by 12-24 hours, and that is a page in history.

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep this trend going.00z.thumb.png.c04a51ae57a779c59492c2a6f0c3c6fc.png12z.thumb.png.a794101a0099c257e7cb07191b5fed6d.png

It will be interesting to see what the ensembles/EPS has to say. 

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it happens , it’s a Rainer. Why all the tracking for rain?

If it does happen, I agree that rain may be the more likely scenario. It needs to track in a tight window for snow. However, rain to snow could very well occur too. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If it does happen, I agree that rain may be the more likely scenario. It needs to track in a tight window for snow. However, rain to snow could very well occur too. 

There’s no cold air. It’s rains to Maine’s unless we get a closed bomb south of LI

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no cold air. It’s rains to Maine’s unless we get a closed bomb south of LI

Well yeah...it’s late March and southerly flow won’t get it done. Need something bigger if you want snow down there.

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May be a case where the GFS SE bias is having an outsized impact on the final solution. It has been further deepening the southern stream shortwave just about every run over the past 5 cycles. Looks like it’s playing catch-up in this regard...

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wouldn’t mind a little snow, but I kinda like it when Judah loses arguments so let’s go Fisher. 

LOL, I feel the same. Judah sucks. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

I can't stay up for 10:30 GFS HECS runs in January.

Yeah I’ve never understood that either. You’ll find out in the morning what overnight runs did . Why stay up all night to either lose even more sleep due to excitement or being pissed off based on results ?

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The para gfs from the last few days is the only way we’ll get significant snow from this down here. More ways than not to fail this time of year south of the pike. 

Unless it fits into a perfect window, it’s nothing or rain here. I’d keep an eye on it though. Can’t hurt 

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