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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS shows potential beyond 3/27-3/28 as well. Not quite time to stick a fork in the snow threats yet. 

Ha... never is until Easter really..

I know what you mean tho - relative to this season..

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They seem to be stabbing cold shots that roll out quick if one uses the Euro...

Like the first rolls out in 24 hours ...raising regional 850s from some -15 C day six, all the way to + 2 by the beginning of day seven... and with west wind in that look it's headed for the mid to high 60s. I've actually seen that look in the autumn before ironically -

Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine.  Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west?

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Just now, FXWX said:

Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine.  Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west?

Oh we wouldn't be expressing any consternation over what's going to happen at 130 hours if that were the case - we'd be counting up SNE's corrected season snow deficits ... 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m selling on that model.  I just want to use my grill.

C'mon bro we're supposed to live in the snowbelt....time to live up to our reputation for once. They'll be plenty of time to smoke beers and grill soon enough. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh we wouldn't be expressing any consternation over what's going to happen at 130 hours if that were the case - we'd be counting up SNE's corrected season snow deficits

No doubt!  As much as I am ready for spring, that type of setup with the potency of the upper dynamics & the nature of that air mass would have me saying, "ok, lets go out with a true bang!" 

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS shows potential beyond 3/27-3/28 as well. Not quite time to stick a fork in the snow threats yet. 

She’s not gonna let us out....

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Heh... I don't know if one should include a model in this that happened to 'spray' a interesting solution or two before returning back to some other variant idea ... The impetus behind tracking the FV3' is that it's been consistent.   It would be almost impossible to separate their chaos from a model bias either way.

 

 

I know, I’m just being tongue-in-cheek

 

Though even if dismissed as part of a spray of outcomes on those models, what adds more intrigue to the underdog/coup narrative is that Euro has not shown a big hit once, iirc

 

FV3 is now 6+ intensifying runs in a row now... this could either be a splashy debut or more evidence it has no business replacing the GFS

 

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12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

I know, I’m just being tongue-in-cheek

 

Though even if dismissed as part of a spray of outcomes on those models, what adds more intrigue to the underdog/coup narrative is that Euro has not shown a big hit once, iirc

 

FV3 is now 6+ intensifying runs in a row now... this could either be a splashy debut or more evidence it has no business replacing the GFS

 

I haven't been blown away by it to be blunt. 

I read NCEPs demo that compared it to the operational version ... back prior to Trump's taking his political ball and running home ... and part of the narrative in that was that it was at least not worse than the operational ..

I did read in American forum somewhere that it's apparently scoring better than the operational - might have even been Chris... If that's the case, he's NWS -   ...

But here's the thing ... the sarcasm people have leveled during the day regarding that thing putting up lofty snow numbers (that of course are yet to verify...) this season is essentially true.  Can't count the historic bombs on one hand any longer that it feasted eyes with on D6's... I tell you what - that thing is going to be absolutely enabling to the local "drug user" forum member that's addicted to modeling cinema whenever in the hell that they release ... or 'unleash" that upon the mainstay.

I mean, that is an improvement - oy.   Hey, maybe this time

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44 minutes ago, FXWX said:

No doubt!  As much as I am ready for spring, that type of setup with the potency of the upper dynamics & the nature of that air mass would have me saying, "ok, lets go out with a true bang!" 

This is precisely my attitude/perspective on matters...

I check out but not entirely...

I kinda sorta  get the idea behind the mantra that so long as warm weather isn't dependable, one may as well 'hold out' for winter events - the part I don't get is the "hold out" part.  Like, what does that entail exactly??  if you're 'holding out' that means your miserable until it snows?? f that!  Too much control given to something one has no control over.

Anyway, that's been a debate in this public weather related social forums for years.  I'm only pointing it out because it is different than what I mean.  I mean snow, take it or leave it; I'd leave it first unless it's an interesting event, than I'm into it for the event.  

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is precisely my attitude/perspective on matters...

I check out but not entirely...

I kinda sorta  get the idea behind the mantra that so long as warm weather isn't dependable, one may as well 'hold out' for winter events - the part I don't get is the "hold out" part.  Like, what does that entail exactly??  if you're 'holding out' that means your miserable until it snows?? f that!  Too much control given to something one has no control over.

Anyway, that's been a debate in this public weather related social forums for years.  I'm only pointing it out because it is different than what I mean.  I mean snow, take it or leave it; I'd leave it first unless it's an interesting event, than I'm into it for the event.  

I don't think anyone is miserable until it snows this time of year :lol:.  I think you align with most on this forum pretty well.  You'll continue to watch the models for something to pop but if it doesn't, just go along with the rest of your day.  But if the option is 32F and a snow event or 42F and misery mist on NE flags, everyone on here knows what the more interesting outcome would be weather-wise.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Hopefully this is the final straw, after a disasterous rookie season, to pull the plug on this thing.

Dragging us back in, just as I wrote off the rest of this season and cancelling my weathermodels subscription.... 

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Dragging us back in, just as I wrote off the rest of this season and cancelling my weathermodels subscription.... 

No drag at all. An awful model that’s phase happy. 

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Dont look at it

Even when we do, give zero credibility...zero.

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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Fv3 has been trending east with this storm since 6z, and it’s really the only model to have it.   Can’t say I have any excitement about this one.

Well if you look at the 12z and 18z runs, the 18z run is actually west of the 12z and ends up virtually in the same spot east of CC by 12z Friday.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well if you look at the 12z and 18z runs, the 18z run is actually west of the 12z and ends up virtually in the same spot east of CC by 12z Friday.

Yea I was gonna say, GFS15 is steadfast.  Wonder what the hell its smoking 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well if you look at the 12z and 18z runs, the 18z run is actually west of the 12z and ends up virtually in the same spot east of CC by 12z Friday.

When it’s near Maine sure but that doesn’t mean anything to this area, the storm is over by then..  just saying we got a model that is trigger happy to bomb every storm that forms on an island by itself with this.  Eh.

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

When it’s near Maine sure but that doesn’t mean anything to this area, the storm is over by then..  just saying we got a model that is trigger happy to bomb every storm that forms on an island by itself with this.  Eh.

You are wrong in your interpretation 

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

When it’s near Maine sure but that doesn’t mean anything to this area, the storm is over by then..  just saying we got a model that is trigger happy to bomb every storm that forms on an island by itself with this.  Eh.

I’m not looking that far out.  I talking 12z Thur to 06z Friday.

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