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March Disco

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Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this...

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He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too -

As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too -

As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east -

Track is not the same 

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Just now, apm said:

Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this...

Eek, that means that if it busts it doing so with style, huh

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Track is not the same 

Not the same as what ?

I just went through the last cycle and this one compared... they are not demonstratively different to matter -

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s steadily awful. 

Kinda like how the old NOGAPs used to always track our eventual coastals over Bermuda.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s steadily awful. 

I'm sure eastern areas will get something, out this way meh...If it isn't going to be a spring blizzard then lets get this cold out of here so we can enjoy this spring early!

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Well whatever happens this'll be an interesting test for the parallel GFS ... which as noted has been the demonstrative outlier for amplitude and placement. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I'm sure eastern areas will get something, out this way meh...If it isn't going to be a spring blizzard then lets get this cold out of here so we can enjoy this spring early!

Doubt anyone gets anything but east is in the best spot. We can remain uninvested. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well whatever happens this'll be an interesting test for the parallel GFS ... which as noted has been the demonstrative outlier for amplitude and placement. 

 

While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. 

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a bit interesting at D5...wide right but not by a lot. 

It looks a bit west of yesterday's 12z run.  Plenty of time for more tics west.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. 

Indeed, but usually those false depictions disappear after a run or two. It has depicted this coastal low for at least 8 runs in a row, with generally increasing intensity. As Tip says, it'll make the bust all the more egregious.  

or could it be...? 

Nah.

 

 

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1 minute ago, apm said:

Indeed, but usually those false depictions disappear after a run or two. It has depicted this coastal low for at least 8 runs in a row, with generally increasing intensity. As Tip says, it'll make the bust all the more egregious.  

or could it be...? 

Nah.

 

 

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  :lol:

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. 

Yeah ... right. Ha.

If one is mired in the obsession teetering on addiction ...rocking with bloodshot withdraw sweats and that is your only salvation ? ...my god you're in a world of hurt.

Euro's about to come out and I'm sure it will make a run at 80 F with a west wind - sometimes the road to recovery is cold turkey. 

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39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd sacrifice an entire seasons snowfall for that to verify.

I hope it does, I would love to be raking and seeding lawn while you are bemoaning and endless slow melt and mud.  :D

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Diving s/w looks a little more stout thru 18z Monday

Another potential thing to watch is the interaction with the s/w over Montana / Wyoming... the FV3 has minimal interaction and so our diving s/w continues under the trough to the east coast vs. 0z (less so 6z) Euro runs have much more interaction and our critical diving s/w gets delayed in a closed H5 low over Nebraska

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Diving s/w looks a little more stout thru 18z Monday

Another potential thing to watch is the interaction with the s/w over Montana / Wyoming... the FV3 has minimal interaction and so our diving s/w shoots under the trough to the east coast vs. 0z (less so 6z) Euro runs have much more interaction and our critical diving s/w gets delayed in a closed H5 low over Nebraska

12Z still tucking that first wave back under the ridge, but not like the 00Z did. Part of it ejects out w/ the northern stream wave, which is diving considerably farther SW into the Lakes this run.

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Euro not quite biting but it's close enough to keep an eye on. That's a good meridional flow...if a little less energy gets buried southwest into the plains then i think we see something pop on that setup. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro not quite biting but it's close enough to keep an eye on. That's a good meridional flow...if a little less energy gets buried southwest into the plains then i think we see something pop on that setup. 

Agreed, if the usual Euro baby steps continue, it's fairly easy to see how the timing of waves could work out.

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19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z still tucking that first wave back under the ridge, but not like the 00Z did. Part of it ejects out w/ the northern stream wave, which is diving considerably farther SW into the Lakes this run.

Yeah you could see this run failing early on, at least in an outcome similar to the FV3... compare at Wed 12z: the s/w (which on the FV3 is responsible for Mar 21-22) gets squashed under the ridge and is hung back over Nebraska, whereas on the FV3 it's already to Missouri/Indiana and trekking towards the coast

What's interesting as you point out is the trough dives much farther SW into the Lakes... if this continues, we could still get a big hit with slightly different timing than the FV3 (for example, energy diving through Lakes phasing with the hung back energy hung emerging from Nebraska)

Not much confidence, but the upper level setup definitely warrants watching

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m selling on that model.  I just want to use my grill.

Second that.  Would be something if that model sniffs this one out before most everything else. 

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