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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we have a little window this week.  Stay half awake.

Yeah the euro was starting to lurk in the weeds around D5-6 this run. 

Even after this week, it looks like some bowling ball potential is lurking. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro was starting to lurk in the weeds around D5-6 this run. 

Even after this week, it looks like some bowling ball potential is lurking. 

Yea, I can totally see something emerging with little notice... I said that like Thursday, I think. But at this point, I'm checked out unless it actually does.

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I can totally see something emerging with little notice... I said that like Thursday, I think. But at this point, I'm checked out unless it actually does.

Yeah I'm definitely not waiting for model guidance to come out like we were doing early this month. I'm in the "check in on the models twice a day" mode just to see if anything is getting interesting.

 

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The idea of "unforeseen yet plausible short notice correction" was mentioned 10 days ago when it was painfully obvious then that this +PNA/ concomitant +PNAP period was depicted to evolve unusually devoid of S/W to take advantage and amplify. Why that is/was the case in this journey over the last week is odd, but such is life.

Right now there a weak impulse almost indistinguishable being ejected out of the NE Pac... For the last couple of days it's been more detected by the Euro and some off-beat guidance types (actually) as arcing the NW Territories and that continues.  I'm not sure if data sparseness/assimilation idiosyncrasies will suddenly atone for some dramatic improvement of that feature as it rounds the ridge and dives in ..but, should it do so it's a decent guess that the next many sampling cycles might pick that up.  We'll see...

The impetus there is that a stronger feature there would transitively induce more latter phasing... given the overall circulation, you're gonna need that.

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gee ...didn't mean to kill the thread with that  ...

anyway, the UKMET with an impressive shift toward classic west Atlantic spring gale ... In fact, not an intrepid journey there to become a juggernaut if only N/stream were to dump anything in there instead of just dangling like a giant mammata bulb -

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

We just need the next 6-8 weeks to be backdoor-hell to make this disaster of a winter complete.

That would be a disaster Spring, winter is long over with.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

IMG_20190316_171232.jpg

Pinkham Notch with only 143"?  Seems low for 2,000ft elevation. 

Man the NEK of VT got buried this season with those areas above 175" on the season...they are outside the main upslope zone too.  Brewery of the Year Hill Farmsted with 188" in Greensboro.

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Snowing like a deform band all the sudden with rapid accumulation... air is full of huge snow growth flakes. 

Temps just above the H85 level are in the DGZ and that's where the lift is in these lake/orographic bands.  Good eastward propagation of under-the-radar fluffy snow on the 2.45 scan... based on what is falling here.

The Spine must be getting a good amount of fake snow...stacked arms of dendrites entraining a high percentage of air for sure.

1.5" so far.

AEBoZyv.gif

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

IMG_20190316_171232.jpg

It’s cool that someone from here in Waterbury made the top five list, but I’m not sure if they should have.  If Mt Washington is on there for NH, why wouldn’t they list the Mt. Mansfield or Jay Peak co-op sites from here in VT?  I’m not sure if the Jay Peak one is still active, but the Mansfield one definitely is.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

It’s cool that someone from here in Waterbury made the top five list, but I’m not sure if they should have.  If Mt Washington is on there for NH, why wouldn’t they list the Mt. Mansfield or Jay Peak co-op sites from here in VT?  I’m not sure if the Jay Peak one is still active, but the Mansfield one definitely is.

They only report depth

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs tried to get interesting while the fv3 went wild. 

GFS15 alone on an island sending out love messages in a bottle in vain. 

 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

GFS15 alone on an island sending out love messages in a bottle in vain. 

 

More than likely, but that’s a sharp ridge with a lot of meridional flow. I’d still keep an eye on it. 

One also could see there may be another risk in the 8-10 day timeframe too. We continue with a Yukon Ridge in the 11-15 day and while it doesn’t really connect to bitter cold like it does in January (hell get the sun out and it will be in the 50s) it does provide a potential source region nearby. 

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Pinkham Notch with only 143"?  Seems low for 2,000ft elevation. 

I saw the same # refererenced on the Wildcat website which surprised me. I always say there is some rough equivalency between Wildcat and Sugarloaf and Sugarloaf is 210ish so far. Didn't Alex say he is at165"?

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Did anyone else get snow overnight?  Woke up to a solid coating here.

-SHSN here just before 5am...not even a dusting though.

 

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That kicker plays the turd in the punch bowl on the op GFS. FV3 has more wave spacing and says no problem. 120hr both storm related shortwaves are just off LI except the GFS has the kicker entering w PA while the FV3 has it over Lake MI. Haven't seen the 6z EC though.

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