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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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22 minutes ago, shoshanaz said:

>1.25" accumulation (measured about 10 pm), 27F and snowing at a good rate.  Just inside the Baltimore city line near Greenspring Ave. 

winter-800x600.jpg

Lol my parents and siblings live within a block of here. Always can tell what’s city and county based on how cleaned up the roads are after snow  

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM joins the party for snow to continue into the late evening tomorrow.

gfs doesn't have much precip after sundown tomorrow.  i think tomorrow morning into early afternoon is our window for the best rates.

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22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bullseye right over me. Beautiful!

I like it.

but I can't put my faith in the RAP.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Sorry NovaTarHeel but glad you got to cash in with the December storm while I counted 2 flurries.  Rain for you means good things for those in NOVA/DC/etc.

Yeah, I can't be too mad.  I'm on to next week already. 

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2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Yes! BTW I bet those ratios right now up in PSUland are about 12:1 - 14:1 right now.. temps there are in the mid 20s lol closer to upper 20s

25/22 here now, just got to an inch.  Snowing steady now...but ratio's don't seem all that high att.  I don't think I have had heavy enough rates or enough lift to get truly high ratios.  I would guess around 11 or 12-1 right now.  Nothing really special.  I get over 15-1 ratios on this ridge a LOT.  Many of my biggest storms the local coop recorded over 15-1.  Around 17-1 is common.  To get those ratios you need to get into dome decent banding and better lift though, if its snowing very lightly with needles that isn't going to get it done.  If I can actually get into some banding tomorrow like the 3k says...that is when I can really clean up and pile up numbers with very little qpf.  Upper low passes up here with upslope enhancement are awesome. 

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

gfs doesn't have much precip after sundown tomorrow.  i think tomorrow morning into early afternoon is our window for the best rates.

 Can’t snow forever I suppose.  Would like to see it keep going until sunset.  Not really confident in that but I can hope. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Yea..that band southwest of frederick is getting real nice 

Has some big flakes for sure

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gfs actually looks a little better than the rgem for dc through tomorrow.  0.5" is a bit further north towards frederick/bmore whereas rgem keeps it a bit closer to the city.  either way, another few inches looks like a good bet.

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2 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Lol my parents and siblings live within a block of here. Always can tell what’s city and county based on how cleaned up the roads are after snow  

So totally true.  The city is not so good with clearing.  The county does much better -- and we are just outside the city line by a block and a half.  Looks like close to 2" now.   Falling steadily, but not hard.  I wish my son had remembered to bring my grandkids boots (they are visiting from Rockville for the weekend).  May have to fashion something out of plastic bags and rubber band.  

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice band west of Frederick.. I'm probably a little too north . It appears it will target central fred and Carroll counties 

Currently 26/25 

Moderate snow 1.5"

I can report beautiful heavy dendrites right now in that band!  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

25/22 here now, just got to an inch.  Snowing steady now...but ratio's don't seem all that high att.  I don't think I have had heavy enough rates or enough lift to get truly high ratios.  I would guess around 11 or 12-1 right now.  Nothing really special.  I get over 15-1 ratios on this ridge a LOT.  Many of my biggest storms the local coop recorded over 15-1.  Around 17-1 is common.  To get those ratios you need to get into dome decent banding and better lift though, if its snowing very lightly with needles that isn't going to get it done.  If I can actually get into some banding tomorrow like the 3k says...that is when I can really clean up and pile up numbers with very little qpf.  Upper low passes up here with upslope enhancement are awesome. 

What's your latest thoughts for our area.  I actually thought 3knam was a nice bump up for us . Tomorrow looks like s legit chance for coastal enhancement here .

Edit:

I see you mentioned the 3k ...looked nice 

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