Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Ant and James need a vacation on the BM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: NNE isn't have a great season. They had a great November and a bad December. It's merely close to normal there overall while SNE has been getting the shaft (though interior SNE did pretty well in November). 22" November, 5.5" in Dec, Not exactly doing keg stands up here. 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: No one is really cashing in except for Maine. Not the southern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, mreaves said: Yes, the 8" of snow I've had in the past month is soooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeettttttttttt! 6 hours last night brought me like 70% of my entire December total lol. But again if we were staring at bare ground while it at least snowed something (even 1-2") in SNE we'd be saying the same thing. There have been a decent amount of winters where SNE goes nuts in Feb/Mar so I get the angst in mid-winter...but no means are they out. It's early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If the season is a dud, that’s a lesson learned low heights in the AK are stubborn and not easily removed. That was always a big red flag for us when it began to show up in late Novie....but I trust all the work seasonal guys put in, so we expect it to change. You can have a strat event with cool videos on twitter and get all warm and fuzzy in your private area, that the vortex is being disturbed....but if the pac sucks, our winter sucks. Plain and simple. I agree fully with this statement....I put the snow goggles on despite seeing this because I foolishly assumed those with degrees and many years of more experience saw something that I did not. I know when the low heights show up to begin worrying, but when they continued to re-establish themselves well into December and further into January...the writing was on the wall. Hopefully we have a fun 4-8 week stretch coming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 22" November, 5.5" in Dec, Not exactly doing keg stands up here. Not the southern half. Yup. Looked to me last weekend that you had to get to Bridgton before you hit the really consistent snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly have no clue what you mean LOL. I know people don’t want to hear it but I literally don’t know what to do. I certainly would rather be in your shoes next week. Hopefully it can come a little south. I read you every day and that was my sense of your energy. But who knows, maybe I was projecting? Lol. I'll stop because it isn't productive or important. And if it feeds the omega troll then it is having an unintended negative impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If the season is a dud, that’s a lesson learned low heights in the AK are stubborn and not easily removed. That was always a big red flag for us when it began to show up in late Novie....but I trust all the work seasonal guys put in, so we expect it to change. You can have a strat event with cool videos on twitter and get all warm and fuzzy in your private area, that the vortex is being disturbed....but if the pac sucks, our winter sucks. Plain and simple. You can still recover for a decent period....see Feb 2007 and even Feb 1995 to a lesser extent, so in a weak nino, even in worst case, its unlikely to be a death knell. But yes, if this season falls short of expectations, I would look to that and some bad luck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 53 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Those huge hadley cells continue to be an issue of late. See HM twitter feed for an in-depth on that overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I agree fully with this statement....I put the snow goggles on despite seeing this because I foolishly assumed those with degrees and many years of more experience saw something that I did not. I know when the low heights show up to begin worrying, but when they continued to re-establish themselves well into December and further into January...the writing was on the wall. Hopefully we have a fun 4-8 week stretch coming up! Yea, the big first half idea was in trouble fairly early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ant and James need a vacation on the BM I hear the Gulf Stream is lovely this time of year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way...we are still at the very frontier of the long range outlooks. That is going to happen, man....do you realize how small of a data pool we have in the grand scheme of things? If this season ever did dud, it would probe to be an invaluable learning tool as we move forward. Failure is a synonym for opportunity. Sweet rhetoric there ...buut, heh. Unless one acquires some sort of paranormal foresight or super - prescience ... or whatever we wanna call it, we are only as good as the technology. It is those that provide a basis, the canvas and the paints upon which one illustrates their visions - visions inherently guided by some amalgamation between the imagination together with objective logic. Some have too much of either ... While no one can foresee fractals. You know it's funny... We're born blind to the ways of the Universe... Somewhere along the way, at varying rates, we reflect our shimmering gallery ... As we grow older, while others revel for the beauty of our opus, we grow silent in our covet: the greatest lessen learned in life is only known at the very end - all that wisdom teaches us we know nothing at all. That's why very old people just sort of smile off to the side telling tails about roller-coaster rides... while the follies of ego and tragic comedies of pride play out before them. It's not that they are mentally compromised ... though there may be some of that... It's mainly because they already know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Those huge hadley cells continue to be an issue of late. Care to elaborate? Not being sarcastic, either.....I honestly don't know much about hadley cells. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Care to elaborate? Not being sarcastic, either.....I honestly don't know much about hadley cells. Thanks. Oh. Its on hm's twitter feed. Weve seen hadley cell expansion the past few year (subtropical highs and subsidence expanding northward and southward into the mid latitudes from tropical convection). It likely contributed to stj having a +5F anomaly last winter even with a stout +NAO. Ive seen some evidence is agw related but i dont know a ton about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess the below means we are currently in phase 6. All guidance seems to want to loop back to the negative phases again. I am now even more concerned. Only 5 below average snowfall winters this century does not have the same ring to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I agree fully with this statement....I put the snow goggles on despite seeing this because I foolishly assumed those with degrees and many years of more experience saw something that I did not. I know when the low heights show up to begin worrying, but when they continued to re-establish themselves well into December and further into January...the writing was on the wall. Hopefully we have a fun 4-8 week stretch coming up! The wire to wire hope faded a couple weeks after the Novie snow. We got unlucky in early Dec though. If that pattern produced two events like it could have, most in sne would be normal or above to date. It is what it is though. No way to sugar coat it though, season has sucked so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Oh. Its on hm's twitter feed. Weve seen hadley cell expansion the past few year (subtropical highs and subsidence expanding northward and southward into the mid latitudes from tropical convection). It likely contributed to stj having a +5F anomaly last winter even with a stout +NAO. Ive seen some evidence is agw related but i dont know a ton about it. the extreme case of which is Venus with its 300 km/h jets or 60x the planet's rotation speed (compared w/10-20% the rotation speed on Earth). Look for that number to go up under GW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Oh. Its on hm's twitter feed. Weve seen hadley cell expansion the past few year (subtropical highs and subsidence expanding northward and southward into the mid latitudes from tropical convection). It likely contributed to stj having a +5F anomaly last winter even with a stout +NAO. Ive seen some evidence is agw related but i dont know a ton about it. Interesting...so you feel as though that is deconstructively interfering with typical el nino forcing, and thus creating a hostile envt. for winter weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Interesting...so you feel as though that is deconstructively interfering with typical el nino forcing, and thus creating a hostile envt. for winter weather? Basically the mjo is in a phase adding momentum. That weakened and pushed east, but we still have a big low near AK and then just added heat from a basin wide warm anomaly in The equatorial pacific. That enhances jet. We get into these stable anomalies and it’s tough to break. We’ve been having this for awhile so this isn’t new news so to speak. But, as we get into feb when niño climo tries for a +PNA and maybe the tropics get favorable, that could break it. Some signs it will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I guess the below means we are currently in phase 6. All guidance seems to want to loop back to the negative phases again. I am now even more concerned. Only 5 below average snowfall winters this century does not have the same ring to it. The Euro is likely more correct. Many people mistakenly think the GFS has recently nailed the MJO but it really has not. It badly overdid it and the Euro was likely more accurate statistically. If the Euro verified it would be ages upon ages that we saw any phase 5 impacts again. Maybe 4-5 weeks from now at that weak amplitude. And that is assuming it’s correct. You’d have phase 8 lag for a long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Basically the mjo is in a phase adding momentum. That weakened and pushed east, but we still have a big low near AK and then just added heat from a basin wide warm anomaly in The equatorial pacific. That enhances jet. We get into these stable anomalies and it’s tough to break. We’ve been having this for awhile so this isn’t new news so to speak. But, as we get into feb when niño climo tries for a +PNA and maybe the tropics get favorable, that could break it. Some signs it will do that. Okay, makes perfect sense....this all goes back to the SSW imo...which is why I didn't foresee this PAC jet/+EPO. It should break down within the next couple of weeks or so. Frankly, I wish we had never had the SSW...we would have bee fine without it. It just adds a wild card to what was already an ideal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way...we are still at the very frontier of the long range outlooks. That is going to happen, man....do you realize how small of a data pool we have in the grand scheme of things? If this season ever did dud, it would prove to be an invaluable learning tool as we move forward. Failure is a synonym for opportunity. I respect your winter opinions and you sticking to your guns and projecting confidence is important I just strongly believe LR should be seen as low confidence until it improves enuf to be accurate i beleive there are too many factors at play to even *confidently* learn a lesson from a season, the data sets are small , the amount of inputs are great and the desire to believe LR guys are getting it right /moving forward ...i believe leads to a bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I respect your winter opinions and you sticking to your guns and projecting confidence is important I just strongly believe LR should be seen as low confidence until it improves enuf to be accurate Totally fair. Like I said, no need to keep forcing ideas down people's throats. We will see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro is likely more correct. Many people mistakenly think the GFS has recently nailed the MJO but it really has not. It badly overdid it and the Euro was likely more accurate statistically. If the Euro verified it would be ages upon ages that we saw any phase 5 impacts again. Maybe 4-5 weeks from now at that weak amplitude. And that is assuming it’s correct. You’d have phase 8 lag for a long time Thanks. Rough morning with all the negative outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Frankly, I wish we had never had the SSW...we would have bee fine without it. It just adds a wild card to what was already an ideal scenario. I was actually thinking that this morning. I wonder how this season would have progressed so far if the ssw didn’t happen. However, I still think the ssw will supply us with some NAO and EPO blocking during peak climo in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: NNE isn't have a great season. They had a great November and a bad December. It's merely close to normal there overall while SNE has been getting the shaft (though interior SNE did pretty well in November). Actually Caribou is well ahead of avg. Currently at 61.4" vs 35.1" avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I was actually thinking that this morning. I wonder how this season would have progressed so far if the ssw didn’t happen. However, I still think the ssw will supply us with some NAO and EPO blocking during peak climo in a few weeks. It'll probably lead to another huge March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We've been talking about the MJO as a "constructive" or "destructive" interference on the planetary atmospheric system for years now... I'm assuming we're just making conversation at this point. In any case, personally I'm hypothesizing that the Euro's low amplitude resolution heading deeper into phase 7 may have something to do with just that... The eastern transition to the western hemisphere doesn't really support that wave space ... at least through week 1/10 days... After that, we'll see if that phase 8 sticks. One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Euro MJO does have more "stability" in its outlooks. It seems to maintain continuity better but I haven't dug around for any specific verification/comparisons in the matter either. Also, just so's folks might approach an understanding .. positive and negative interference is not absolute. Saying either does not preclude anything. If the Pacific wants to be in a AA phase, and the Indian Ocean farts out a wave, it may initially be suppressed some ... impetus on some. And vice versa of course. As Scott or whomever that was mentioned, ...it adds momentum, or ...robs it away... wave interference is offset. Sometimes when the wave seems to crash inward into that inner detection boundary region it's really just the surrounding medium doing a proficient dampening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Actually Caribou is well ahead of avg. Currently at 61.4" vs 35.1" avg. There are several places in NNE plenty above average still Recall those initial “melts” about the one eyed pig near Alaska what were the responses to that .... While this isn’t a textbook pig it’s obviously a very large issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There are several places in NNE plenty above average still You need a scale from north to south, Well above, Above, Avg, Below Avg and well below avg and that could cover a couple hundred miles or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 How we looking for an ice storm this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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