weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I thought eps looked significantly better d13-15. Todays event was a non event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I thought eps looked significantly better d13-15. Todays event was a non event here. It’s got a lot of work to do. We can’t get sustained improvements quite yet. Wake me up inside day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s got a lot of work to do. We can’t get sustained improvements quite yet. Wake me up inside day 10. Exactly What's the point of looking past 10 days when the improvements aren't even moving up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s got a lot of work to do. We can’t get sustained improvements quite yet. Wake me up inside day 10. Each run is a small step (past 3 runs). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I’m mildly optimistic that we are turning the corner up here, though it seems the frustration may last for southern New England. Usually these last several years we transition into something where we’re getting misses or light to moderate events while southern New England is getting crushed and northern New England is getting upslope. Maybe this year we get to get the heavy storms for a little while before everyone else to our south joins in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Interesting late night read of HM Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was before 6z came out. I wouldn’t trust the GEFS at all. 6Z isn’t a big cave. Your bias is showing. EPS and GEFS morning bed towards each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: 6Z isn’t a big cave. Your bias is showing. EPS and GEFS morning bed towards each other. I can’t post but 00z changes on GEFS were significant. Take a look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I can’t post but 00z changes on GEFS were significant. Take a look. But changes on the eps occurred too-each in the others direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: But changes on the eps occurred too-each in the others direction. I thought it wasn’t that great though. Even at the end heights were lower in the GOAK compared to 12z. Unfortunately, we can’t catch a break. Maybe it just snaps the other way, but I’m not a fan of the overall stuff that I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought it wasn’t that great though. Even at the end heights were lower in the GOAK compared to 12z. Unfortunately, we can’t catch a break. Maybe it just snaps the other way, but I’m not a fan of the overall stuff that I see. I can only compare 24 hours and those changes are pretty good. Overall a serviceable look to me but we know where that’s brought us so far.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I can only compare 24 hours and those changes are pretty good. Overall a serviceable look to me but we know where that’s brought us so far.... When the mean barely has the 540 line overhead with SW flow in the heart of January, it’s usually not good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought eps looked significantly better d13-15. Todays event was a non event here. 13-15 days? That almost sounds like.....wait for it......2 weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Gefs are definately nice, retros the AK lower heights to a more favorable position and pops the pna. eps not as robust but you can see at the tail end it begins to fade the AK trough a bit. If this was mid Jan already and we continue to squint out some positives in the 11-15 period then we in trouble...but for now, we stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Today Ray will admit nervousness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Today Ray will admit nervousness Why?He calls for an AN Jan with prolific snows starting the 20th. EPS GEFS falling in line. The 6Z GFS run shows the potential as we transition out of the shi te 4 -6 week pattern cycle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers. NNE isn't have a great season. They had a great November and a bad December. It's merely close to normal there overall while SNE has been getting the shaft (though interior SNE did pretty well in November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers. No one is really cashing in except for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why?He calls for an AN Jan with prolific snows starting the 20th. EPS GEFS falling in line. The 6Z GFS run shows the potential as we transition out of the shi te 4 -6 week pattern cycle Steve.. in all seriousness .. it’s falling apart. We are closing in on losing January. When I see Will and Scooter and Ryan mailing it in and depressed .. I don’t start popping winter wood. I certainly hope Ray and you are right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No one is really cashing in except for Maine. Figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Steve.. in all seriousness .. it’s falling apart. We are closing in on losing January. When I see Will and Scooter and Ryan mailing it in and depressed .. I don’t start popping winter wood. I certainly hope Ray and you are right Lol ok then I would if I was you move on, put some lesco down, find some new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I love the melts, keep them coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 How was discussing what the pattetn looks like a melt? I know people don’t wanna hear it but I’m not sure what else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol ok then I would if I was you move on, put some lesco down, find some new hobby. That’s dumb. No one is moving on. But we can admit things are falling apart. All I know is when you post about Maine in early January instead of your annual Morch posting bonanza about how much snow Sugarloaf has been getting.. things aren’t going well in SNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. We are definitely reduxing February 2015 now specifically because you said that - as in personally ... Yup, it's like that scene in the Greek mythology where some hubris challenges Aphrodite's beauty... pissing off Zeus, who then looks the other way while Hades dooms civilization to the perils of The Crackin' ... Scott so arrogantly decried winter is over that now... having to base our world perception on logic and reason, we have no choice but to pretend that he did not just unleash the winter Crackin ... Nice goin' buckwheat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. Not scoring some events in marginal patterns really hurts the higher end upside potential in winter totals. You really need a Feb '15 to make up for it. Years like 2004-2005 and 2002-2003 scored multiple events in semi crappy patterns. I'm hoping next week can pan out but overnight trend wasn't good. One solid warning event prior to 1/20 would go a long ways in getting back on track a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How was discussing what the pattetn looks like a melt? I know people don’t wanna hear it but I’m not sure what else to do. who mentioned you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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