ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Does this really fit the little critter definition (a la Tip and Bosart?) No. This is a larger scale SWFE redeveloper....if it redevelops just a shade sooner we're really talking full blown Miller B...but right now it's kind of a hybrid SWFE/late bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still need to get it inside 4-5 days. Wouldn't be a total shock if it still trended north and powderfreak was the most frequent poster by the time we get to 2-3 days out. But at least it has some good Synoptics to it....the high is in excellent position and it's cold too. Not stale. The way this winter is going it’ll be rains to Maine’s as they’ve all been, but that HP is something we haven’t seen since the Nov storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Does this really fit the little critter definition (a la Tip and Bosart?) I think those critters are clipppers that are middling in guidance and outdo it. The guidance here is pretty strong already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think those critters are clipppers that are middling in guidance and outdo it. The guidance here is pretty strong already. That is what I had thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No. This is a larger scale SWFE redeveloper....if it redevelops just a shade sooner we're really talking full blown Miller B...but right now it's kind of a hybrid SWFE/late bloomer. We take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No. This is a larger scale SWFE redeveloper....if it redevelops just a shade sooner we're really talking full blown Miller B...but right now it's kind of a hybrid SWFE/late bloomer. As it slows down once it hits the Atlantic, It tries to blow up the low, The oz Euro looked more Miller B'ish, So yeah, I would put in the hybrid SWFE category for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 still don't like the look of that... At D4 you can clearly see a preponderant positive anomaly well anchored in the lower level Rosby layout from Hawaii all the way around to Bermuda, and the Euro tries to amplify a trough over top. I suppose stranger things have happened. Again... I think keeping a potent wave as a flat wave type of evolution is warranted but ... this game is at times about juggling anomalies too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I'll say one thing.. the pattern in the Euro nearing D10 does take on more +PNAP look ... It almost looks like the model is trying to fight it though - ...obviously that's an affectation but it's a poorly constructive western heights look that has a lot of weird holes punched in it... Like it's all N-stream and there's a concurrent breakdown of much forcing at all below the 40th parallel. weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I wonder if ever it has happened where there's a lead wave with a nice 6-8" low end warning snow that fades into choking Norlun ... Such that it looks like one single 30" juggernaut but was in fact two disparate things going on: a wave moves off the snow lightens for several hours and then the lag trough/convergence with llv neg eq p-v goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 That's a pretty good traffic jam over the Maritimes. I can also see this thing getting driven further south....ACY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS really likes a cold bias for the d6 system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: That's a pretty good traffic jam over the Maritimes. I can also see this thing getting driven further south....ACY? I was just about to post about this. Wouldn't be shocked to see this trend south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS really likes a cold bias for the d6 system. With that setup to the NE as the previous poster said you’d think this would be flatter. The tendency the last decade is for SWFE type storms to always be amped. We don’t see the 12/27/90s or the 2/8/94s as much anymore that pound us down here in NYC where we stay mostly snow so I’m siding with a stronger system but with that Op run setup I think it’s running the system too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if ever it has happened where there's a lead wave with a nice 6-8" low end warning snow that fades into choking Norlun ... Such that it looks like one single 30" juggernaut but was in fact two disparate things going on: a wave moves off the snow lightens for several hours and then the lag trough/convergence with llv neg eq p-v goes nuts. I know in Feb 94 we had a somewhat similar overrunning to coastal setup which produced 18+ inches over a 4 day period, much colder air mass but that also had an initial burst of 6-8 followed by a 8-12 a day later 1994-02-09 11 7 9.0 -18.5 0.52 6.0 15 1994-02-10 20 0 10.0 -17.7 T 0.1 14 1994-02-11 19 4 11.5 -16.4 0.92 10.0 23 hi lo ave dep snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: With that setup to the NE as the previous poster said you’d think this would be flatter. The tendency the last decade is for SWFE type storms to always be amped. We don’t see the 12/27/90s or the 2/8/94s as much anymore that pound us down here in NYC where we stay mostly snow so I’m siding with a stronger system but with that Op run setup I think it’s running the system too far north Ha I just posted that the same time you posted this, has that look to me just not as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I was just about to post about this. Wouldn't be shocked to see this trend south. Then again, maybe we are both wishcasting, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ha I just posted that the same time you posted this, has that look to me just not as cold I don’t recall one SWFE since then where we stayed cold enough for all snow here. Even February 08 flipped over I think. It just seems either we aren’t getting the vortex far enough south in Canada or the systems have been too amped. In the 80s and early 90s we got many flatter waves. Even January 1989 which was our only event of the 88-89 winter was a SWFE that was all snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still need to get it inside 4-5 days. Wouldn't be a total shock if it still trended north and powderfreak was the most frequent poster by the time we get to 2-3 days out. But at least it has some good Synoptics to it....the high is in excellent position and it's cold too. Not stale. I like when everyone is in the game at least in the lead up....discussion is lively. Nothing kills disco on here like RT 2 northward snows. Then it turns into me, Gene and Dryslot with an occasional comment from Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Arguably ingredients for a to the coast ice storm, that new cold high though. Interesting to watch the next 12 cycles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 It seems many are becoming locked into a either or scenario for late January or that’s what’s frequently discussed should the pattern change more favorable ( it can’t become much crappier ) there are several options and ways to do so just slowing the flow down and jamming things up in part of the maritime can lead to more late bloomers , even thou the pacific may NOT become that favorable and If the pacific does it could be by a smidge or dramatically but also break backdown to something less favorable a week to 2 weeks later . Just reminding folks that a switch to a better pattern doesn’t lock that pattern “in” for a certain amount of time that weenies want . It could for several weeks but that is TBD . I believe this is obvious to most but at times optimism and certain repeated perspectives gets the best of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I know in Feb 94 we had a somewhat similar overrunning to coastal setup which produced 18+ inches over a 4 day period, much colder air mass but that also had an initial burst of 6-8 followed by a 8-12 a day later 1994-02-09 11 7 9.0 -18.5 0.52 6.0 15 1994-02-10 20 0 10.0 -17.7 T 0.1 14 1994-02-11 19 4 11.5 -16.4 0.92 10.0 23 hi lo ave dep snow depth Good find! ...even looks similar too - I'm/we're not saying that's an analog per se but... this thing seems like it could product a wave and then a lingering inv trough sort of set up ... "if" the total wave spacing turns flatter like it should... The other possibility is that the total synoptic r-wave configuration is in the process of changing "as" this thing unfolds, ... separate headache if that were ever to happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Lol Euro control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Holy cold at the end of that Euro run -25 degree wind chills getting into upstate NY with -20+ F 850 air already in NE and roaring SE. Real deal stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro ensembles still dogshit in 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Right at the tail end it shows some signs of improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Snow probs over 3" and 6" are very high on the EPS from Kevin north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Right at the tail end it shows some signs of improvement. I thought it was starting to cave just a little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I thought it was starting to cave just a little. I was thinking the same too...but didn't want to say it and look like wishcaster. But that was my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought it was starting to cave just a little. Right at the tail end. I was looking at 12hr height differences as well and pattern was pretty yucky after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I was thinking the same too...but didn't want to say it and look like wishcaster. But that was my thought. Where did you see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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