Spanks45 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I was thinking the same too...but didn't want to say it and look like wishcaster. But that was my thought. It actually looked like it was starting to cave around day 10, then went back to the garbage look, only to shift back again at the end. Definitely says that 10-15 day period is the big question mark. I guess one could look at it as finally leaning towards it's own weeklies in the 2-3 week time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where did you see them? Weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right at the tail end. I was looking at 12hr height differences as well and pattern was pretty yucky after day 10. Unfortunately I only get 24 hour height differences and clearly they’re up at AK at the end of the run. comparing to 0z this is a significant improvement at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The other possibility is that the total synoptic r-wave configuration is in the process of changing "as" this thing unfolds, ... separate headache if that were ever to happen - I notice that your 582 line is over Myrtle Beach at 120 hours, Jacksonville at 144, then as the storm is departing at 168 hours it is all the way down to Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Let’s hope the day 6 thing works out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nervousness increasing amongst all posters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: No. This is a larger scale SWFE redeveloper....if it redevelops just a shade sooner we're really talking full blown Miller B...but right now it's kind of a hybrid SWFE/late bloomer. Kind of like the mid level magic deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nervousness increasing amongst all posters For what? Everything is going as planned even if the pattern changes by late month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: For what? Everything is going as planned even if the pattern changes by late month. He's speaking for himself lol..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: For what? Everything is going as planned even if the pattern changes by late month. Late month now Ant, come on? You keep moving those goal posts out and whistling by the graveyard. At this rate it'll be did the groundhog see his shadow? Coming quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Lots of snow chances coming up according to the EPS, Euro OP , GFS, GEFS. Best climo time of year to run positive numbers and get some great snows. Euro Ens members had some great looks. Nervous nellies lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He's speaking for himself lol..... Pattern change by later this month ain’t putting the goods in my yard now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Pattern change by later this month ain’t putting the goods in my yard now Snowy next week may. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: Pattern change by later this month ain’t putting the goods in my yard now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It seems many are becoming locked into a either or scenario for late January or that’s what’s frequently discussed should the pattern change more favorable ( it can’t become much crappier ) there are several options and ways to do so just slowing the flow down and jamming things up in part of the maritime can lead to more late bloomers , even thou the pacific may NOT become that favorable and If the pacific does it could be by a smidge or dramatically but also break backdown to something less favorable a week to 2 weeks later . Just reminding folks that a switch to a better pattern doesn’t lock that pattern “in” for a certain amount of time that weenies want . It could for several weeks but that is TBD . I believe this is obvious to most but at times optimism and certain repeated perspectives gets the best of us. Thing is that there aren't many $hitty weak el nino Feb to choose from. The real question is do we wait until Feb, or can we flip the second half of January. Not a "repeated perspective", just the honest to goodness truth. Even Feb 2007 was a good pattern...we just minimzed potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when winter was winter and pattern changes were real lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Things is that there aren't many $hitty weak el nino Feb to choose from. The real question is do we wait until Feb, or can we flip the second hakf of January. Not a "repeated perspective", just because honest to goodness truth. Even Feb 2006 was a good pattern...we just minimzed potential. Yes please: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Remember when winter was winter and pattern changes were real lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes please: Meant Feb 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thing is that there aren't many $hitty weak el nino Feb to choose from. The real question is do we wait until Feb, or can we flip the second half of January. Not a "repeated perspective", just the honest to goodness truth. Even Feb 2007 was a good pattern...we just minimzed potential. It’s gonna flip for sure. I was thinking the same earlier. There may be more good La Niña February’s than there’s been bad Niño ones. So I think it happens but if it’s not til 2/5 nobody is going to reach normal snowfall outside of a KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes please: This is one of my biggest disappointments in my lifetime. I got 8" we were forecasted to get 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes please: Screw that storm just missed getting nailed here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s gonna flip for sure. I was thinking the same earlier. There may be more good La Niña February’s than there’s been bad Niño ones. So I think it happens but if it’s not til 2/5 nobody is going to reach normal snowfall outside of a KU Agree. Disregarding all opinions and preconceived notions, there is no way we won't have a decent pattern in February. How much we avail of it and how long it lasts is the question. I think 1995 is the only modest el Nino that failed to produce a KU magnitude event (still had 1'+ event)....that VD Day 2007 event was a whale. Just hugged too closely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is one of my biggest disappointments in my lifetime. I got 8" we were forecasted to get 18"+ Your loss is my gain and vis versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s gonna flip for sure. I was thinking the same earlier. There may be more good La Niña February’s than there’s been bad Niño ones. So I think it happens but if it’s not til 2/5 nobody is going to reach normal snowfall outside of a KU I said a long time ago it seems unlikely we’re going to somehow realize 130% of normal, and all the similar predictions, when we keep squeezing snow production into a smaller and smaller window. Something’s gotta give at some point and then the discussion will be do we get to average? Do we get a KU? A MECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Your loss is my gain and vis versa. That event was decent....had like 16", but I was jealous. I didn't understand mid level dynamics then, and just kept waiting for the NYC and HFD death band to translate ne lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 wah-how... those indie versions of the GEFs are lewd - cover your children's eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS def showing some signs at the end...my hope is that the d10-14 type stuff trends a little better. If it does, we'll probably have another threat in that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. Disregarding all opinions and preconceived notions, there is no way we won't have a decent pattern in February. How much we avail of it and how long it lasts is the question. I think 1995 is the only modest el Nino that failed to produce a KU magnitude event (still had 1'+ event)....that VD Day 2007 event was a whale. Just hugged too closely. I still think this February is more conducive to 2015 that 2015 was ... heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I still think this February is more conducive to 2015 that 2015 was ... heh Agree 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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