RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 You can slowly see this panning out for those that melted already. Something to be said about the squeeky wheel gets the grease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 A big weenie run from the 8th onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Looking forward to 6 weeks of winter love but I've also much enjoyed snowless walks in the winter woods. I think most all are looking forward to it, Some just thought it was going to start in Nov after we got off to a good start, Hence where the problems lie when December fell on its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Guidance becoming more wintry. That Tuesday event looks promising at this long range at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Guidance becoming more wintry. That Tuesday event looks promising at this long range at least. GFS laughably tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 GEFS still balls to the wall in the 11-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can slowly see this panning out for those that melted already. Something to be said about the squeeky wheel gets the grease. Panning out for all. Enjoy the show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Panning out for all. Enjoy the show. It's a start.., at least seeing some events modeled inside day 8. Euro was tasty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: It's a start.., at least seeing some events modeled inside day 8. Euro was tasty. Lots of potential for NNE there. Call me a Debbie... but 2-3 inches on a 200 hour run in the middle of winter doesn’t really move the needle down this way. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The pattern for the first 20 days of January remains horrific for winter weather. It can snow in bad patterns for SNE / NNE and even in the mid Atlantic in the middle of January. That does not change the fact this pattern shows no signs of changing. EPS remain rock solid, GEFS as usual is caving and pushing any changes back in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: It's a start.., at least seeing some events modeled inside day 8. Euro was tasty. It'd be nice to get some lower QPF events that were all snow. These 1-3" glops ending as rain with an inch of liquid are getting old. Looks nice we may be just barely cold enough to snow over the next 7-10 days if the tracks are just right. The 850 0C tracking from Minny to SNE for a week normally isn't a great thing, but maybe we can pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The pattern for the first 20 days of January remains horrific for winter weather. It can snow in bad patterns for SNE / NNE and even in the mid Atlantic in the middle of January. That does not change the fact this pattern shows no signs of changing. EPS remain rock solid, GEFS as usual is caving and pushing any changes back in time. idk if I'd call that horrific. 6z GEFS look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lots of potential for NNE there. Call me a Debbie... but 2-3 inches on a 200 hour run in the middle of winter doesn’t really move the needle down this way. Gradient at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The pattern for the first 20 days of January remains horrific for winter weather. It can snow in bad patterns for SNE / NNE and even in the mid Atlantic in the middle of January. That does not change the fact this pattern shows no signs of changing. EPS remain rock solid, GEFS as usual is caving and pushing any changes back in time. What kind of breathing gear do you need to survive up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Everything remains on track. SNE winter begins for everyone away from the islands around Jan 9/10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk if I'd call that horrific. 6z GEFS look really good. Glad its not just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2014 2015 redux ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 2014 2015 redux ? 2015 Jan-Feb/ YES PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Starting to come together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 It’s still a huge battle in the 11-15 day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Liking the tone of this thread more in the last 18 hours or so - and knowledgeable posters with the better news as well. Thanks all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS still looks pretty bad. The GEFS are pretty weenie-ish. Who will cave? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, cut said: Liking the tone of this thread more in the last 18 hours or so - and knowledgeable posters with the better news as well. Thanks all. Hangovers are subsiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Funny ... I didn't think the nuances of those runs ( GFS mainly...) made them all that great. I've noticed this about the GFS operational guidance in the past..though. When the 500 mb geopotential/vorticity evolutions look bad, the surface evolution looks surprising favorable... Then, we see some "improvements" at 500 mb and the storm ends up the St Lawrence seaway with a labored pallid commitment to secondary and kitchen sink ptyped. re 168 - 192: The irony is that the 500 mb may not be as favorable as it first appeals. The Euro and the GFS's 00z operational depictions look remarkably similar for D7 to 8 - that in itself is good. But one such nuance about the flow, however, is that the heights in the SE look too high to allow that evolution to verify. Strains believability that it would take 18 hours to close off a circulation over New England with heights over Miami nearing 590 and 50 kts of geostrophic wind blasting over through the TV. It's almost like these models tend to fail some when it comes to factoring the super-synoptic to regular synoptic scaled interference schemes. Because that SE ridge is still there ...and it's being compressed, which means the wind field speeds up ...such that anything like a local S/W wind max that tries to ride either through, or over the top, is not likely to conserve enough mechanics to close off - in fact, ...the opposite, and lose some/shear ...tending to remain open wave structured. Yet the models do this in the mid and extended range a lot... interesting Edit ... hm... the balance wind is really 35 kt ~ prior to the S/W feed from the west so.. borderline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 06z GFS does, however, show a more multi-dimensional negative interference evolution between the OV/MA/...SE regions... It tries to do the old western end of SPV snip-off subsume phase, but in an unusually narrow corridor of latitude ...like only 15 deg worth... Of course it fails ...and the southerly component is mechanically forced to speed right by it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS still looks pretty bad. The GEFS are pretty weenie-ish. Who will cave? GEFS probably. But I don't care if they cave as long as it isn't all the way. Even a 70/30 compromise would work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s still a huge battle in the 11-15 day. It is a battle but one we accept. Better than waving the white flag while the pac jet floods are our fortress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I guess a reasonable correction for this stuff might be just to keep the wave open ... If it needs to be potent it can be. I've seen flat-wave vmaxes with some 45 units, and 120 kts in the wind barbs ... Those are cool systems ... NJ Model bombs typically come open wave potency ... 1987 November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Starting to come together. That's actually worse than the previous day's posting... That 'mop ended' splaying of different graphical curves ... granted, they are all neggie but the spread means instability. The previous run had said unstable look but this is actually even more frayed and on balance, looks slightly less negative in the mean. That said, the signal is still there. It's definitely a tendency to descent in general... It may and in fact probably will be that said splaying will begin to coalesce around an agreed curvilinear structure out there in time ... Then, if the "GEFs" signal is wrong, ...gee, they all go down together .. .ha. Or not ... The problem with 'spread' is that they could all correct unilaterally high - it doesn't seem likely .. being at the business end of an SSW but I'm getting precariously close to throwing hands because there really is an incredibly bad correlation breakdown as though the anomaly inmates are completely controlling the asylum over the last couple of years... It's been plaguing... it's a bit of abstraction, but I've definitely noticed that relative to all indicators, the results have been negative or distracting. That may just be a gestalt we're going through . Will and I were wondering back in November if this would be one of those years where we end up colder relative to all signals ... it seems that's taken place with Dec still only putting up click and half positive departures... yet, amid that bias, it rains twice as much above the 40th latitudes - There's another definition for gestalt of that nature: Kosmic Dildo. ...no need to really go out of the way in creative prose to impress what that means ... must people intuitively know. joking but we'll see... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS probably. But I don't care if they cave as long as it isn't all the way. Even a 70/30 compromise would work here. I would think that the one that will cave will be the one that is less clearly picking up the changes coming from the SSW/PV split. I don't know which one that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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