Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Euro's out to hour 168 at the free sites and I'm liking the height falls NE of Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Euro actually has two more small events Jan 8 and Jan 9-10 back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 That’s huge blizzard at 144-168 for....New Foundland. Wish we can visit then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Northern jet getting more active, Some of these will pan out, Starting to show up on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Winter hasnt even started yet for me, so Im just hanging and reading posts. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s huge blizzard at 144-168 for....New Foundland. Wish we can visit then. Crash at Leo’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Crash at Leo’s? I’d rather watch the wife shop for handbags. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d rather watch the wife shop for handbags. With hazeys wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 That Euro is a whip run folks! hells yes it is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 it's got the rudimentary SPV near 60/90 with down stream rather abrupt onset NAO block ... that's clearly PV stressing causing that - no question This is coalescing around the idea of a more abrupt "detection" usurping the previous dynamic. ... fun words for more a sudden onset pattern change (perhaps..) I mean no promises... It's an idea - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought it was already happening. The technical SSW seems to be today, i think. The 60N/10W reversal occurs at 12z today on the run from 12z Euro run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That Euro is a whip run folks! hells yes it is - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Crash at Leo’s? I have a 2 bedroom apt... Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I have a 2 bedroom apt... Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run. Lab city then off to the Gaspe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Lab city then off to the Gaspe. Plus, there's a blizzard tonight into tomorrow... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Plus, there's a blizzard tonight into tomorrow... lol I want to make that trek someday to ride up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Plus, there's a blizzard tonight into tomorrow... lol On the way. Change the sheets in the spare br Nick. Kidding of course-back to work Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Crash at Leo’s?Nick’s place. He’s been quietly cashing in on this poor pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 wow ... I can't wait - ...the EPS might be interesting. although mm the oper. may leap on that by a bit.. I bet the oper. shows the pattern flux and then the EPS sort of needs more to swing momentum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: Nick’s place. He’s been quietly cashing in on this poor pattern. I try to appreciate that not everyone is getting the goods. It's been good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I try to appreciate that not everyone is getting the goods. It's been good here. There’s a winner in every pattern somewhere. You deserve it after you got hosed last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: wow ... I can't wait - ...the EPS might be interesting. although mm the oper. may leap on that by a bit.. I bet the oper. shows the pattern flux and then the EPS sort of needs more to swing momentum May very well be the manifestation into guidance, but agree...I'd give it a day or two for ensembles to stabilize. The period of false alarms is drawing to a close, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Ensembles look decent for 1/7-8. That rainstorm on 1/5 that turns into a monster in the maritimes ends up acting as a 50/50 low for that lakes system a couple days later and keeps it south of us. Hopefully it has the right idea. Would be a nice little overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I try to appreciate that not everyone is getting the goods. It's been good here. Oh, sorry Nick.. I thought you were NS ... NF though ... Yeah if taking the Euro verbatim that low collocates, huh - but man, just to the west, that is an insane CCB also apparently enhanced by pure pressure gradient ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles look decent for 1/7-8. That rainstorm on 1/5 that turns into a monster in the maritimes ends up acting as a 50/50 low for that lakes system a couple days later and keeps it south of us. Hopefully it has the right idea. Would be a nice little overrunning event. Big height changes up there from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big height changes up there from that. I know huh.. again, I'm curious what the umbrella appeal of the EPS is ... whether there is a broader systemic change afoot or if that is all just a transient mode while this bomb spins down. I'm tentatively thinking it is ... because we have all the other arguments in play but ... heh. Remember how we used to call anything with Euro genetics as "dr no" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Pacific is marginally better. Split flow is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pacific is marginally better. Split flow is ok. The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. I wonder why the -AO turns positive post-day 10. Im not sure that makes a ton of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. Oh, I suggest so ... I mean, I won't speak/claim to the magnitudes... but the gist of the circulation morphology fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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