CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS probably. But I don't care if they cave as long as it isn't all the way. Even a 70/30 compromise would work here. That would be my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 F this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: F this. Still 10-14 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: F this. European Puke System. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: European Puke System. The Pacific firehose. What a disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Yeah...I didn't see past d10 before. That's uglier out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The Pacific firehose. What a disaster. GEPS and GEFS worlds apart. I have to think maybe eps is not right here but history suggests they have a clue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GEPS and GEFS worlds apart. I have to think maybe eps is not right here but history suggests they have a clue.... They’ve busted very often in the 11-15 range since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEPS and GEFS worlds apart. I have to think maybe eps is not right here but history suggests they have a clue.... Yeah they certainly could be wrong. But things suck pretty bad now and December was a shut out. Persistence? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 That’s how you a get a -AO on the charts but still wonder why the pattern sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah they certainly could be wrong. But things suck pretty bad now and December was a shut out. Persistence? That's if the eps is right With the mjo traveling through 6-7-8, eps is most likely wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: That's if the eps is right With the mjo traveling through 6-7-8, eps is most likely wrong. But will the MJO do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The euro family has MJO in 7 by tomorrow and 8 for about a week before dying in the cod. You would think guidance would be better? That’s today’s forecast but is it that much different vs yesterday? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah they certainly could be wrong. But things suck pretty bad now and December was a shut out. Persistence? I think December being a shutout has zero to do with how January evolves. It wasn't a shutout because it was a horrendous pattern, it was a shutout because the pattern was pedesterian and we didn't catch a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think December being a shutout has zero to do with how January evolves. It wasn't a shutout because it was a horrendous pattern, it was a shutout because the pattern was pedesterian and we didn't catch a break. The 2nd half of December was worse than pedestrian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The 2nd half of December was worse than pedestrian. I am talking about in the aggregate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Folks just losing it today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Folks just losing it today The eps is the board’s mental health barometer. Nothing else. Not the fact that all guidance has our first good snows on a long time next week, not the epic GEFS and GEPS look...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s how you a get a -AO on the charts but still wonder why the pattern sucks. Exactly, you can dump the cold in the wrong spots. We deed see a similar progression with last years SSW, first the cold went into Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The eps is the board’s mental health barometer. Nothing else. Not the fact that all guidance has our first good snows on a long time next week, not the epic GEFS and GEPS look...nothing. I'll sell on that putrid look in mid January. Probably going to start seeing some adjustments, but there is nothing anyone can say right now....people just need to see it snow and I get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly, you can dump the cold in the wrong spots. We deed see a similar progression with last years SSW, first the cold went into Europe. Had nothing to do with where the cold dumped. Canada is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Had nothing to do with where the cold dumped. Canada is very cold. I was referring to the -AO. You can have a cold Canada above a certain latitude even with a +AO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll sell on that putrid look in mid January. Probably going to start seeing some adjustments, but there is nothing anyone can say right now....people just need to see it snow and I get that. At a certain point seeing is believing and all the prognostications of pattern changes coming and better days ahead, no matter how rooted in sound guidance they are, aren’t going to penetrate the psyche when people feel repeatedly disappointed. Just human nature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: At a certain point seeing is believing and all the prognostications, no matter how rooted in sound guidance they are, aren’t going to penetrate the psyche when people feel repeatedly disappointed. Just human nature. 100% agree...and its normal. I do the same thing. Hopefully we start shoveling soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gfs looks interesting in 6-7 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: The eps is the board’s mental health barometer. Nothing else. Not the fact that all guidance has our first good snows on a long time next week, not the epic GEFS and GEPS look...nothing. I will never understand the love affair with the EPS. There’s mets that forecast solely from it. We were always told to blend all the ensembles on here . If you know their biases , you know how to weight them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I was referring to the -AO. You can have a cold Canada above a certain latitude even with a +AO But your premise is wrong. Things suck because the pacific jet is roaring. Put high pressure where low is in AK and we party . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs looks interesting in 6-7 days. That’s a consistent signal on all the guidance and it’s strong today so far. Warning snows in the pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The EPS is wrong, high amplitude MJO pattern doesn't support it just dying out like that. I think it'll get stuck or slow down in phase 7/8 and then move from there. Here's something interesting, did you know that sometimes when the models show warmth in the long range they may end up being wrong. Seriously why does everyone assume it's correct. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gfs looks interesting in 6-7 days.Yeah we don’t toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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