ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a consistent signal on all the guidance and it’s strong today so far. Warning snows in the pike region. Yeah I'd like to see it get inside of 5 days but it's been a remarkably consistent look the last 2-3 cycles despite the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The eps is the better guidance. Fact not opinion. What we are saying is that even if it compromised like 70/30 in favor of EPS....that would help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: But your premise is wrong. Things suck because the pacific jet is roaring. Put high pressure where low is in AK and we party . Well yeah that I agree with, that’s the fundimental problem we need to change. I was hoping that the SSW would trigger a full scale pattern realignment. But really what we need to see first is the tropical fourcing change. This is at the outer limits of my knowledge and I have trouble putting it into type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 43 minutes ago, weathafella said: The euro family has MJO in 7 by tomorrow and 8 for about a week before dying in the cod. You would think guidance would be better? That’s today’s forecast but is it that much different vs yesterday? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml The only problem I see is the ecmwf plot goes to the COD then re-emerges in phase 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well yeah that I agree with, that’s the fundimental problem we need to change. I was hoping that the SSW would trigger a full scale pattern realignment. But really what we need to see first is the tropical fourcing change. This is at the outer limits of my knowledge and I have trouble putting it into type. Yea. My original point was that the tellie charts can be misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The eps is the better guidance. Fact not opinion. What we are saying is that even if it compromised like 70/30 in favor of EPS....that would help a lot. Yes but it can still be wrong. People hug the euro way too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes but it can still be wrong. People hug the euro way too much. More often than not we see a compromise towards the euro side. It certainly be wrong, but it’s done well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: F this. With the lowest anomalies over the Aleutians, would we expect that to begin pumping up western heights shortly thereafter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The only problem I see is the ecmwf plot goes to the COD then re-emerges in phase 5 That’s way out there tho and with tons of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The only problem I see is the ecmwf plot goes to the COD then re-emerges in phase 5 Clearly those crazy high amplitude phase 5/6 didnt pan out in the end. Something is going on with the mJO's forecast. They all seem terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Clearly those crazy high amplitude phase 5/6 didnt pan out in the end. Something is going on with the mJO's forecast. They all seem terrible. That was the GFS not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 They did pan out...in region 5. It’s the forecast going forward that differs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 GEFS certainly not backing down at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 This would work. VS where we are at now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nice look again on the euro at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice look again on the euro at day 6. It’s funny to see the GFS as a whole in recent op runs and ensemble members wanting to try and cut the system into Quebec more than other guidance. It’s usually the GFS that’s flat as a pancake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice look again on the euro at day 6. Very nice hit for interior sne and and new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny to see the GFS as a whole in recent op runs and ensemble members wanting to try and cut the system into Quebec more than other guidance. It’s usually the GFS that’s flat as a pancake That’s not what gfs does in the end though. Ends up a SWFE of the old school variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nice stall and reach around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Where do i sign up for the Euro on the 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Where do i sign up for the Euro on the 8th? Could be a nice parting gift for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I would take that 6-10" in a heartbeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be a nice parting gift for us. I like those little critters that bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gfs also with the parting shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Definitely better than 00z for SNE. Might have ptype problems verbatim near BOS, but at this stage...no choosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nice regionwide WSW there. This is the first storm since Nov 15, that has been there multiple model runs in a row. This ones got Pickles Milf legs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely better than 00z for SNE. Might have ptype problems verbatim near BOS, but at this stage...no choosing. Nice frigid high and it very good synoptic position so even areas further south in SNE that have issues with midlevels would likely be dealing with IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice regionwide WSW there. This is the first storm since Nov 15, that has been there multiple model runs in a row. This ones got Pickles Milf legs. Still need to get it inside 4-5 days. Wouldn't be a total shock if it still trended north and powderfreak was the most frequent poster by the time we get to 2-3 days out. But at least it has some good Synoptics to it....the high is in excellent position and it's cold too. Not stale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Lock it in. The little critter that bites in the nite but it'll be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: Lock it in. The little critter that bites in the nite but it'll be alright. Does this really fit the little critter definition (a la Tip and Bosart?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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