USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 SNE snow weenies, we have a real shot at some snow Thursday after 20z into Friday, let's see after tonight's 00z runs if this has any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: SNE snow weenies, we have a real shot at some snow Thursday after 20z into Friday, let's see after tonight's 00z runs if this has any merit. Enjoy your sprinkles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Enjoy your sprinkles. Oh, I will. Because its the only weather you got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh, I will. Because its the only weather you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Happy New Year Brian, and everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic. You have been on your game. Nice call on the non event late week due to MJO, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 00z NAM made things interesting for Thursday night/Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I understand that February natural gas contracts were obliterated today. The bull community is now pricing natural gas as if there's no winter left, despite the long-range still showing a bias for colder than normal weather at the end of January into at least early February. I guess we aren't the only ones having meltdowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 53 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z NAM made things interesting for Thursday night/Friday morning Looks like a little something which is better than a little nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, DavisStraight said: Looks like a little something which is better than a little nothing. I think it is within our 72-hour window to create a thread, so I did, a discussion thread for the event. So we don't end up talking in this January 2019 thread about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Year everyone! At some point we snow. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I understand that February natural gas contracts were obliterated today. The bull community is now pricing natural gas as if there's no winter left, despite the long-range still showing a bias for colder than normal weather at the end of January into at least early February. I guess we aren't the only ones having meltdowns. It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January when the futures expire. A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January and February. A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude. Look back at Jan 13, has that kind of semblance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 hours ago, weathafella said: The alcohol part may be temporary but definitely toned down no matter what. I just feel the need to re-establish equilibrium.... I did the same, beer is best in hot summer anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January and February. A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude. Don, please feel free to visit us on a regular basis! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January when the futures expire. A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude. Natural gas futures were skyrocketing in early to mid-November when we had that BN cold spell later in the month. They reached almost $5/contract then, but have plummeted to $2.96/contract now, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Years weenies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Went to visit friends for dinner and movie-streamed the Big Lebowski-one of my all time favorites. When we got to our car to go home I had some slush on the windshield. Happy New Year friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Year Soi went down again 1 Jan2019 -7.30 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Maybe the GFS is turning a new leaf for 2019, lol. Nice hit in fantasyland, d12. Almost 2" qpf, all snow, for here anyway. When the GFS gets rid of the hangover tomorrow, it will probably be just that, a fantasy. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Happy New Year Soi went down again 1 Jan2019 -7.30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Years guys! Still a little slush on the ground here being eaten away by a chilly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Watch this clipper energy passing by day 3-4, the clipper transfers energy into a coastal, the 21z SREFs are closer to the coast this run. Dude, Put the Srefs piece pipe down, No, seriously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 hours ago, frd said: The way the winters have been going since 2010 I don't think a flip, even as late as say Jan 20th to 25 th is really late. We will see though. We flipped that late in both 2015 and 2016 and still ended up with above average snowfall. Jan 20th seems to be the new turning point for backloaded winters. If it doesn't flip by early February then we might be having problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The worst of beer goggles would not mask the ugliness of this winter. Happy 2019, folks. 34*, coating of sn/ice to start the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Went to visit friends for dinner and movie-streamed the Big Lebowski-one of my all time favorites. When we got to our car to go home I had some slush on the windshield. Happy New Year friends! May your new year feature many bowling balls, Jerry...but not on Shabbos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 NAM drops an inch Wednesday night . It’s all we’ve got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 SSW Vortex Split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 GEFS looks spectacular in the 11-15. Any reports on last night's EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: GEFS looks spectacular in the 11-15. Any reports on last night's EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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