January 2019 Discussion

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"standard"? nah...no predilection exists over here in my mind.   I was just using/reporting what they're indicating but if we need to disagree with them...sure. If I had my own buoy network tied into WAN sampling NOI and SOI and thermalcline depth/Kelvin wave distribution ...I'd be better prepared to formulate a discussion. 

I definitely agree with your sentiment in bold though... I covet my own hypothesis which... admittedly, one's supposition doesn't necessitate a collective adherence - haha... But, I'm not entirely certain these ENSO states are being normalized for climate change along the way. If they are...that's great!  If not ...that's comparing against a system of observations gathered middle last century; I might have a problem with the Law of constancy in physics in doing so. 

 

They use anomalies against a moving average, so they do take into account warming oceans. 

I'm not disagreeing with CPC per say, it's just defined by past anomalies so we can't know we're in an El Nino until we've already been in one for some time. Nino region 3.4 has hovering near +1c anomaly for like 3 months running. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure I agree with that physical causality between the SSW and the MJO that isotherm is referencing... 

There is a statistical correlation that suggest so but my own research and reading on the matter suggests there is disparate causes. 

The MJO phases in late 7 through early 2 correlate with a -AO ... true.

But that correlation does not appear so much to be caused by the intrusion of warm in the stratosphere and/or then inciting it to plume downward toward a critical interaction space with the tropopausal depths. 

The 7/8/1/2 MJO phases correlate to favorable mid latitude cyclogenesis patterns ... those then enhance the easterly anomaly in the 50 to 65th parallel band of the hemisphere. That "mimicks" -AO. ... and in fact, reflects as a descension as provided by the EOFs. However, raising surface pressure consequentially do to blocking and confluence modularity will also enhance said easterly anomalies in that band, and that can happen at times when the MJO is other phases. 

There could be partial but ... I think it's risky to site that as total in why x-y-z.  

[MJO812]

Some members of the gfs look good for snow on the 3rd

[dryslot]

Looks like i may have to keep an eye on the 5th-6th up here, As the low blows up in GOM, That would be a warning event as depicted on the 12z Euro.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Weenies.

At this lead time , punting even 3 weeks out seems extremely silly 

However I would not believe that a KU cookbook is a very likely pattern set up coming end of January .

more favorable , yes but that means nothing given the current pattern of last week or two. 

So imo it’s stilk a crap shoot till we see MJO reveal where it’s headed over next week.

I have a hard time having faith in LR given the current set up. I see Reasons to be optimistic that we could be headed into a favorable pattern but just not HIGH confidence. That is really the crux of It.

 I believe there are Enough mix of inputs currently that high confidence is a stretch (for myself )

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like i may have to keep an eye on the 5th-6th up here, As the low blows up in GOM, That would be a warning event as depicted on the 12z Euro.

Euro even still looks really warm until maybe it draws in enough cold for downeast ME. But you def have a better shot there than here.

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro even still looks really warm until maybe it draws in enough cold for downeast ME. But you def have a better shot there than here.

It looked to rip the CCB for a time and crashed the temps SE to the coast as the low wound up, Initially, It looked cold at the surface and warm aloft until the low got going.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

They use anomalies against a moving average, so they do take into account warming oceans. 

I'm not disagreeing with CPC per say, it's just defined by past anomalies so we can't know we're in an El Nino until we've already been in one for some time. Nino region 3.4 has hovering near +1c anomaly for like 3 months running. 

 

Mm, I'm curious what that entails ...  moving average is made to be in error, if the movement is taking place along a non-constant rate of change. Acceleration is noted in the system... too.  But, heh...we're probably ultimately talking about decimals too ..  

I think they need 3 months - so if indeed it's that high than I was incorrect with my original assertion up there that it's not technically there. Below is from CPC's resent pp fwiw -

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It looked to rip the CCB for a time and crashed the temps SE to the coast as the low wound up, Initially, It looked cold at the surface and warm aloft until the low got going.

Keep in mind... you can "crash temps SE to the coast as the low" winds up .... and have that still mean rain.  

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm, I'm curious what that entails ...  moving average is made to be in error, if the movement is taking place along a non-constant rate of change. Acceleration is noted in the system... too.  But, heh...we're probably ultimately talking about decimals too ..  

I think they need 3 months - so if indeed it's that high than I was incorrect with my original assertion up there that it's not technically there. Below is from CPC's resent pp fwiw -

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5^oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5^oN-5^oS, 120^o-170^oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.

The latest tri-monthly is 0.7. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind... you can "crash temps SE to the coast as the low" winds up .... and have that still mean rain.  

Sure, But the 0c line and 540 thickness was out in the gulf of maine just to my east, As well as the sub freezing surface temp was along the coast, It looked like snow to me for a time inland.

[dryslot]

I know its a 24h clown map verbatim, But you get the "drift" to what i was saying, No pun intended..............

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sure, But the 0c line and 540 thickness was out in the gulf of maine just to my east, As well as the sub freezing surface temp was along the coast, It looked like snow to me for a time inland.

it's not a bad 'index finger' approach but ...  "0C line" and the 850 sigma level is typically 1350 meters high...  

In this situation, that 1300 and change may as well be 1,000 miles .. 

One thing that occurs to me looking at all the model ... there are westerly surface wind anomalies extending across the entire Canadian shield below the the 55th parallel.  That is a circumstance seldom seen prior to New England snow falls.  

That was true actually during those model runs two days ago that toyed and tempted the weary beleaguered ... Then, we get this hiccup run that flattens the system down to nothing, only to have it come back as a rainer... It almost seems like the writing was on the wall that a correction toward a p.o.s. was coming. 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it's not a bad 'index finger' approach but ...  "0C line" and the 850 sigma level is typically 1350 meters high...  

In this situation, that 1300 and change may as well be 1,000 miles .. 

One thing that occurs to me looking at all the model ... there are westerly surface wind anomalies extending across the entire Canadian shield below the the 55th parallel.  That is a circumstance seldom seen prior to New England snow falls.  

That was true actually during those model runs two days ago that toyed and tempted the weary beleaguered ... Then, we get this hiccup run that flattens the system down to nothing, only to have it come back as a rainer... It almost seems like the writing was on the wall that a correction toward a p.o.s. was coming. 

 

Pretty limited to what levels you can see on the Euro without giving up your first born to get access.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty limited to what levels you can see on the Euro without giving up your first born to get access.

yeah ... I know.  One of the benefits of a classical education in this useless compendium of scientific rearing. ... is that you get a pretty clear and coherent understanding when a granular freebie product's 0C line means "0 C"

heh.   I mean... you don't really need an education per se...it's a bit of tongue in cheek there. The impetus is just having synoptic weather chart experience...  If there is a fresh polar high N of Maine, a 0C line in the same position sans such a feature,  one will parlay more favorably than the other -

[Typhoon Tip]

Omg ... looking at Scott's Intellicast radar at that arm of precipitation ...and it just starts raining. On the seam of December and January...it just starts raining.   

This is a rain-cold-rain-cold-rain pattern at the physical limits of how sore a butt can really be.  It really was cold enough to snow, then, not cold enough when it's raining, period.  No contention in the matter.  thing of beauty -

Commiseration aside... just looking at this Euro run...  man, we're still just in that same pattern we warned about back on the 15th of December when we started that part II thread. Although, in that ... contained disclaimers that cold anomaly relative to all could still transpire.  This is not transpiring either...  

Natural tendency to do this... my self included.  We all kind of more or less collectively engineered reasons to either evade the reality of the hemispheric circumstance ... certainly rushing it by.  As Scott or Ray or whomever might certainly attest... it may have been a fool's errand to think much could offset the plight of the beleaguered winter warrior of this body of social media skulkers.  I mean, I was sort of ... thinking just one such anomaly might happen with that thing at 120 hours ... but seeing it flip back to a warmer scenario is probably perfunctory in this pattern.   It's still SE ridgy ...  and is right out to the end of the Euro now D10 ... although there is some honest semblance there for relaxing.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Omg ... looking at Scott's Intellicast radar at that arm of precipitation ...and it just starts raining. On the seam of December and January...it just starts raining.   

This a rain-cold-rain-cold-rain pattern on at the physical limits of how sore a butt can really be.  It really was cold enough to snow, then, not cold enough when it's raining, period.  No contention in the matter.  think of beauty -

The cosmic dildo is really relentless 

serious question, counting  tonite and the 5’th As rain storms , are we not likely breaking a record for SNE rainstorms for November to early January 

Not to purely over-simplify but given the amount of QPF and temp departures we really Have added just the right ingredients for a shiat sandwich so far

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The cosmic dildo is really relentless 

serious question, saying tonite and the 5’th As rain storms , are we not likely breaking a record for SNE rainstorms for November to early January 

1957 was really bad before it flipped in Jan '58. Think there were like 5 rainstorms in December alone...and I think Dec 1973 is even worse. That might have had half a dozen big rainstorms....though it was broken up by the one epic ice storm (only for interior though....coastal plain was all rain).

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The cosmic dildo is really relentless 

serious question, counting  tonite and the 5’th As rain storms , are we not likely breaking a record for SNE rainstorms for November to early January 

I think we’ve broken it at many places for snowless period of weather. Many folks have gone 45+ days. Probably never been done . It’s almost impossible at our latitude 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1957 was really bad before it flipped in Jan '58. Think there were like 5 rainstorms in December alone...and I think Dec 1973 is even worse. That might have had half a dozen big rainstorms....though it was broken up by the one epic ice storm (only for interior though....coastal plain was all rain).

Thanks Will, it’s slightly humorous you speak as you witnessed that lol

could go for an epic icer 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we’ve broken it at many places for snowless period of weather. Many folks have gone 45+ days. Probably never been done . It’s almost impossible at our latitude 

More impressive...being we have been in a active period and departures have not been that mild and accomplished this .

KASH can’t be running more than 1.5 from December ave 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks Will, it’s slightly humorous you speak as you witnessed that lol

could go for an epic icer 

haha!  

I was thinking the exact same thing - like he knew before he was born to be pissed about those years.   funny - 'mother f'ers!'

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

More impressive...being we have been in a active period and departures have not been that mild and accomplished this .

KASH can’t be running more than 1.5 from December ave 

ORH is +1.4 with over 4 inches of QPF....but 0.1" of snow. That is really hard to do in December. You normally need a much higher departure to do that, The only years over 4 inches of QPF that have really pathetic snow (under 3 inches) are 1957, 1973, 2011, 2014, and 2015. All of them were furnaces....except 1973 was not quite a furnace, but still like +3.

 

 

Honorable mention to 1986 which had over 7 inches of QPF and only a +1 departure....yet only 4.9 inches of snow. Pretty tough combo.....but 4.9 inches of snow would seem like a blizzard compared to December 2018.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

More impressive...being we have been in a active period and departures have not been that mild and accomplished this .

KASH can’t be running more than 1.5 from December ave 

KORH is +1.4F not including today, so KASH is Prob similar

 

The old man beat me to it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1957 was really bad before it flipped in Jan '58. Think there were like 5 rainstorms in December alone...and I think Dec 1973 is even worse. That might have had half a dozen big rainstorms....though it was broken up by the one epic ice storm (only for interior though....coastal plain was all rain).

KORH will have 5 rainstorms in Dec if one includes tonight 

[NorEastermass128]

Hmmm...my futility thread may get some action after all. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Honorable mention to 1986 which had over 7 inches of QPF and only a +1 departure....yet only 4.9 inches of snow. Pretty tough combo.....but 4.9 inches of snow would seem like a blizzard compared to December 2018.

Yeah.... but under the radar ...that year alone is the hallmark key-stone identifier of what it meant to live and breath that awful decade. Almost like if that one month right there had not been a spate of seemingly impossibly horrendously bad circumstances not stopping once.... that decade might have got a D-

Symbolically ...paying for 1978 with a 12 year prison term that at least had work-furlough ... if it ever was "decent"   That's what the decade was like. 

That might have been the first time I ever connected with the cold-rain-cold-rain irony, come to think of it... I remember Christmas that year...  A storm system was moving N up the coast and hugged the inside route, and Harv was on T.V., and I recall his words, "... I realize there are those of us that would like to see some white out of this storm system but it really is not in the card..."  

Solid frozen mud and dirt with rain water flowing off the tops of lawns... I very vividly recall that December as doing that frequently...  

[weathafella]

I’m airing things out after stinking up the place by opening today’s eps.....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

I’m airing things out after stinking up the place by opening today’s eps.....

It’s terrible. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold change again on EPS. 12z cold. 00z warm 

 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold change again on EPS. 12z cold. 00z warm 

Huh? It wasn’t.