January 2019 Discussion

[dryslot]

Another SECS in the southern region before anything falls in SNE and this place would become unreadable.

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another SECS in the southern region before anything falls in SNE and this place would become unreadable.

I'm glad I had the wintery month in Pit2--might be the only winter I'll have.  Right now, I'm settling for a hope of a glop of mix before the heavy rains tonight.  The win tomorrow should be impressive in any case--even if it's mild.

[NorEastermass128]

51 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another SECS in the southern region before anything falls in SNE and this place would become unreadable.

Tempers will flare if anything like the 6z GFS verified.  Cutter-BM Rainer-Suppressed-Cutter. Pretty horrible. Horrible begets horrible. We’re in a rut. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe we have a chance with the January 9th storm

Hell, maybe we’ll have a shot Feb 9th!

keep kicking the can

[Damage In Tolland]

You can see SNE Chance is finally coming with the Jan 9 storm. Fantastic EPS support . Even has snow down past NYC

[512high]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see SNE Chance is finally coming with the Jan 9 storm. Fantastic EPS support . Even has snow down past NYC

agree, if that continues, at least things are "popping" any how something to track.......

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

agree, if that continues, at least things are "popping" any how something to track.......

Only need it to continue for 10 more days.  

[512high]

Just looking at my chart from last January(2018) for snow removal/salting events 

1/4/18 had about 13"

1/18/18 5" heavy

1/23/18 freezing rain

that was it

I THINK we can top this!(lol)

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see SNE Chance is finally coming with the Jan 9 storm. Fantastic EPS support . Even has snow down past NYC

MJO will be in phase 7, so much better support than the non event on the 4th. 

More legit threats should really start revealing themselves soon.

[ORH_wxman]

The 1/8-9 threat does have some ensemble support so maybe something to track if it is still around in a few days. 

[512high]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The 1/8-9 threat does have some ensemble support so maybe something to track if it is still around in a few days. 

Does phase 6 work? or really has to be at phase 7 for "ideal conditions"?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The 1/8-9 threat does have some ensemble support so maybe something to track if it is still around in a few days. 

Only 10 days away

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 512high said:

Does phase 6 work? or really has to be at phase 7 for "ideal conditions"?

The MJO phase isn't going to determine whether the storm is successful. This is almost like a SWFE on guidance. But to answer your question, both phase 6 and phase 7 are pretty good...esp in El Niño. 

[JBinStoughton]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hell, maybe we’ll have a shot Feb 9th!

keep kicking the can

These winning teleconnections are gonna produce I tell ya! You could see it coming for months! 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Another SECS in the southern region before anything falls in SNE and this place would become unreadable.

It's hard to move toward a destination you've already arrived upon

[ncforecaster89]

Happy New Year’s Eve, everyone!  

As most know, it takes a MECS or HECS to persuade me to travel to the region to document such an event.  That said, I fully anticipate that (those) event (s) to materialize at some point between 1/25 & 3/15.  Don’t expect a significant region-wide event prior to 1/25 as there will likely be a lag in the atmospheric response to the forthcoming pattern change, as the major teleconnections move towards a far more favorable pattern by the beginning of February.  

Patience is key.  Give the atmosphere time to build it, and it will come!

Edit: removed reference to Mid-Atlantic region.  Irrelevant in this sub forum. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see SNE Chance is finally coming with the Jan 9 storm. Fantastic EPS support . Even has snow down past NYC

Mjo should be in 7

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The MJO phase isn't going to determine whether the storm is successful. This is almost like a SWFE on guidance. But to answer your question, both phase 6 and phase 7 are pretty good...esp in El Niño. 

Really ... phase 6

I guess you could get warm profiled events.. But, more commonly.. we find that where there is clouds and precipitation, cooler anomalies take place - just a matter of degree ( n'yuk n'yuk) 

The composites found here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/  ... use "DJF"

...as we can see, clearly show phase 6 as perhaps the warmer of all ... That fact alone can be used to back us into an assumption. Namely, that phase 6 should be consistent with lower storm frequency - in other words, not pretty good.  

I suppose though that El Nino's are relatively rare compared to the longer termed rest state of the data ... otherwise, we'd always be in El Nino - duh.  So, yes it is possible that being in an El Nino may alter the results of that inference. Or asking in a 'nother e-zombie watered down way: ... bad for storms unless its phase 6 in El Nino? 

Therein ... we don't even know what this El Nino really is at this point... All we have is this Modoki-ness and a prediction... technically, we are not "in" an El Nino if logic were any use. Here is CPC's (fwiw) most recent update published back on December 10 ...

"  ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).  "

I'm not a poet laureate but that doesn't "sound" impressively in El Nino at this time.  So, I don't think we can really assess phase 6 above in either context.

 

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's hard to move toward a destination you've already arrived upon

Ha, It would be taken to another level, Epicosity?

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Happy New Year’s Eve, everyone!  

As most know, it takes a MECS or HECS to persuade me to travel to the region to document such an event.  That said, I fully anticipate that (those) event (s) to materialize at some point between 1/25 & 3/15.  Don’t expect a significant region-wide event prior to 1/25 as there will likely be a lag in the atmospheric response to the forthcoming pattern change, as the major teleconnections move towards a far more favorable pattern by the beginning of February.  

Patience is key.  Give the atmosphere time to build it, and it will come!

Edit: removed reference to Mid-Atlantic region.  Irrelevant in this sub forum. 

We look forward to seeing you. Fortunately chasing our events are less dicey than some of your recent adventures (unless you park on the beach at Scituate). 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see SNE Chance is finally coming with the Jan 9 storm. Fantastic EPS support . Even has snow down past NYC

Heck even in the hell pattern of 2011 2012 we scored a heavy snow event. Also last Feb. I have a hard time believing we continue getting shut out even if the pattern flip never materilizes. Unless the pattern is the 1985 bears version of a shut out pattern.

[dendrite]

I wonder if the coldest high temp for a winter ever occurred in November. My 13F on 11/22 may be tough to beat if we start punting the chance for any high end cold through much of January.

[EastonSN+]

This of course would be the worst case scenario I would believe:

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder if the coldest high temp for a winter ever occurred in November. My 13F on 11/22 may be tough to beat if we start punting the chance for any high end cold through much of January.

Good question ... yeah, statistically, I think January 15 to 25th is more than less the climate nadir in temperatures...  If January verification proves everything's a red-herring, inference alone suggests it should get more difficult after that. 

Heh, it's one of those questions that's reasonable at the same time, asked in frustration.   So we can't automatically blame the asking on the frustration -hahaha.  

2015 has it's use ...more so than filling up pattern threads with nostalgia ... having not much to do with actual patterns ... It shows the obvious that deep cold and high impact winter can feed all the way into March. I remember that early spring ...how it was 19 F at noon a week before the Equinox and I was amazed how it kept locking in the cold despite, by then, for all rites being well outside that ~ 90 day perennial solar min.  Back in a blizzard in 1984 (1982?) ... Logan was in the teens with blowing snow in the first week of April. 

Nah...I there's more than handful of cold Febs in the data, more than enough to feel confident in having chances - getting to materialize?  'Whole 'nother paranoia.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder if the coldest high temp for a winter ever occurred in November. My 13F on 11/22 may be tough to beat if we start punting the chance for any high end cold through much of January.

Or have we ever had November be the snowiest month in a winter?

we had an October snowiest month here in 2011

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

AK region is being stubborn. Until we can pump heights there and cutoff the pac puke, we have to get lucky. 

[ORH_wxman]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ... phase 6

I guess you could get warm profiled events.. But, more commonly.. we find that where there is clouds and precipitation, cooler anomalies take place - just a matter of degree ( n'yuk n'yuk) 

The composites found here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/  ... use "DJF"

...as we can see, clearly show phase 6 as perhaps the warmer of all ... That fact alone can be used to back us into an assumption. Namely, that phase 6 should be consistent with lower storm frequency - in other words, not pretty good.  

I suppose though that El Nino's are relatively rare compared to the longer termed rest state of the data ... otherwise, we'd always be in El Nino - duh.  So, yes it is possible that being in an El Nino may alter the results of that inference. Or asking in a 'nother e-zombie watered down way: ... bad for storms unless its phase 6 in El Nino? 

Therein ... we don't even know what this El Nino really is at this point... All we have is this Modoki-ness and a prediction... technically, we are not "in" an El Nino if logic were any use. Here is CPC's (fwiw) most recent update published back on December 10 ...

"  ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).  "

I'm not a poet laureate but that doesn't "sound" impressively in El Nino at this time.  So, I don't think we can really assess phase 6 above in either context.

 

Interesting...the January composite is definitely colder.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This of course would be the worst case scenario I would believe:

It like holding a tuna sandwich out to the brink of starvation, but pulling it back for the sick evil joy of torment... 

Yeah, no .. There are MJO progs more appealing than that. That's one of a few scenarios being offered by the panoply.

Sobering reality here:  any of which could not only be proven veracious ... but end up proving the more dominate pattern correlation.  Boy, ...it would be nice if they all were blasting into Phase 7, huh.

This is a social media that is open to the public, ...with relaxed contribution screening practices by nature of what it is.  Folks that happen by this internet and use it for an actual source?  Heh, it's tantamount to using pre-regulation era Facebook for 'cutting edge' political insights/news to formulate a decision on voting intentions prior to a huge election. 

Truth be told, I've seen probably twenty MJO reposts while skulking around these subforums during down time over the last couple weeks, and your's may in fact be just the 2nd time one was posted that happens to be antithetic to this "pattern improving" motif smoldering amid the embers of a torched December - figuratively speaking...  Otherwise, the vast majority of them featured the "good" WH curves.  

All the while, I have my own MJO tenets I covet.  Like ... I don't believe the MJO is really a pattern driver.  I believe it is a pattern augmenter. In fact, I don't believe I am even alone in that.  There was huge popularity over the index that took off in the 1990s. I know... I lived that era. Those days months and years featured (probably) the greatest era of general model and insight improvements, which necessarily meant a ubiquitous awakening to the usefulness of, along with continued sophistication of teleconnectors. Folks started bandying clever turns of phrase to really put themselves on the map, both intra-office and internet venues. Including, NCEP's discussions ... to evening Mets on television exchaning back-end emails in the general ambit community.   But, those same discussion circuits today? They don't always contain the same assumption spectrum. Whether the NAO or EPO or MJO or WPO ... AO .... astrology...they're used more cautiously .. in quadrature, too (that means, in smaller segments )..and conditionally. Which is really how they should be. 

Hell, even we in here began distinguishing between NAOs as being 'west' or 'east' based...  Really, the comedy of that folly is the question of where does that end - what scales?  Like is there NAO NW based... versus NAO SW ...SE ...NE ...N based??  All of which could have its own coherent storm complexion tendency, if one were anal about the data discretely enough...  along the eastern seaboard (or not...).  Same holds true for the all these other indices.  In fact, in a quantum aware technological future... perhaps ever Plank-value of inertia in the domain is known, and there would need be a teleconnection for each moment of those momenta ...huh.  wow

But as far as the MJO goes... I began noticing over the last twenty years, that not all Phase 8-1-2 MJOs seems to deliver the same magic.  I've seen blizzards on the east coast in Phase 4 ...albeit rare. It probably is not a huge breakthrough of reason and logic to assess these teleconnectors (in general) as not being holy grails.  There are no neat and tidy 1::1 correlations in the atmosphere - duh.  Even NCEP can be quoted as having said that the MJO is in either a constructive or destructive wave interference with the surrounding medium...  If it's positive, the Phase 8 will "help" the on-going tendency to raise heights in western N/A... And vice versa.  

Basically from all this... It's sort of dubious and or risky to "rely" on the MJO in the first place.  Truth be told, the PNA has been averaging positive at CPC this last 10 days. Yet, we are soaring in a strong antithetic motion in space and time with the MJO.  That is actually technically a destructive MJO interference era ...  I don't see how the logic is disputable ...unless we change all the correlations.  This whole pattern we are observing (and suffering)   ... could very well just be the residue of that battle.  

But it does engender a valid question... If there is (suppose) a baseline tendency for positive PNA ... should the MJO move into a Phase 7 ... 8-1/2 .. suddenly the interference pattern becomes constructive ... and the pattern collapses accordingly. Whether folks are precisely accurate for they perceive all this stuff or not .. .the consensus more than less approaches that idea, presently.

If all that were not enough ... we're still in the throws of assessing the SSW stuff... oy

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting...the January composite is definitely colder.

 

 

Yeah... and pointing out the obvious ...that's a three month mean compared to a single month. 

Plus...we'd have to vet their data sourcing... Are they going to tell us that they "might" or "could" be using just two January points versus 1300 for all three months? No - ...least, I don't see that in any disclaimers and so forth. I have read at CDC, however, that their cross-correlations table is subject to oddities in the numbers ...and also, that the correlations may breakdown "...when in quadrature..."

... Which is amazing, that they would use the word quadrature in publication to any resource that is available to this particular state of society we bump shoulders in...   

j/k, ... but what that means is similar to what I was just describing to East' there about the west vs east based NAO...etc...etc..  But pertinent to discussion here, if CDC admits to less than ideal linear relationships in the numbers/numerologies .. heh.  

But... like I was also just describing to East' ... I think the MJO's exact influence has a reasonable enough pattern-related relevance to expand definitions anyway

 

[weathafella]

There’s a chart somewhere that lists KUs and MJO phase.   Anyone have that link?