STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: True, but all the idiots claiming 02-03 and Modoki polluted everyone. There’s a large difference between belly to belly and punting December 1 to January 20. Nobody had that forecast despite fancy word smithing santics that it’s an AWT deal . I’m not saying we are punting to Jan 20 by Any means , just saying the thought that this was mainstream or even forecast like this is disingenuous . Bad luck first part of December and being a few weeks ahead of cold Enuf Climo w a very good storm track in November hurt . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly think we had bad luck. The pattern through 12-15 was good and even when it was not good...it was ok in NNE. I think the true bad December had a start to finish terrible look. You don’t get record snows in the south and parts of MA in a bad pattern. We just got skunked. Oh definitely, There was some bad luck, If a couple of these had gone the other way we would be having a different conversation in here, Jan is typically the biggest month here for snow, So if we end up losing half the month coming up, Its going to be tough sledding to get to climo seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I personally never bought into the belly to belly thing of course but would have thought by now you would see some sort of discernible change in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Honestly, it is one bad run of the GFS, and you all are jumping ship, that makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Honestly, it is one bad run of the GFS, and you all are jumping ship, that makes me sick. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Honestly, it is one bad run of the GFS, and you all are jumping ship, that makes me sick. Nobody is jumping ship. Call it what it is. Looks like dung for a while longer, at least. There has been enough turd polishing in here over the last few weeks. We have nada to show for it, and likely nothing moving toward for a good while too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Honestly, it is one bad run of the GFS, and you all are jumping ship, that makes me sick. Lay the 6 footer down and move away .. slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There’s a large difference between belly to belly and punting December 1 to January 20. Nobody had that forecast despite fancy word smithing santics that it’s an AWT deal . I’m not saying we are punting to Jan 20 by Any means , just saying the thought that this was mainstream or even forecast like this is disingenuous . Bad luck first part of December and being a few weeks ahead of cold Enuf Climo w a very good storm track in November hurt . Lots of people were thinking colder December and certainly cold January. All the nat gas people already sold winter. Many bought the hype. Luckily many in here did not. I will say based on how things looked in December, it’s a total fail from a modeling standpoint. You could predict a lousy period months out, but when guidance starts looking promising only to have Lucy rip the football right out from under you, that’s a fail. I’m still hoping for a better later month and Feb-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: When i had looked back earlier in the fall at winters that were similar to this Modocki Nino, It was pretty much a split to some decent and some duds, Not saying this ends up a dud, But i believe the better ones had produced better results in Dec. I disagree. This December was not very mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree. This December was not very mild. I was not talking temps, I'm talking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lots of people were thinking colder December and certainly cold January. All the nat gas people already sold winter. Many bought the hype. Luckily many in here did not. I will say based on how things looked in December, it’s a total fail from a modeling standpoint. You could predict a lousy period months out, but when guidance starts looking promising only to have Lucy rip the football right out from under you, that’s a fail. I’m still hoping for a better later month and Feb-Mar. I will say this, and then I'm out for a bit until this place ceaces to a cespool. Current guidance tending warmer in early January only serves to bolster my confidence in the ideas that I have outlined, as the portion of the outlook that I was least confident in was the above normal January. I had feared it would verify colder. I'll post some thoughts in the outlook thread about how I feel December verified, but other then that, there is absolutely, positively zero left to be said at this point. Happy New Year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: I was not talking temps, I'm talking snow. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Once there was this weenie who...got into an accident checking models right after school. but when he finally saw the euro, his hair...had turned from black into bright white he said that it was from his laptop that he smashed soooooo haaaaarrrd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The problem seriously is that most of the time by now, we usually get some sort of light to moderate snowstorm, such as a weak Alberta clipper with light fluffy snows or quick hitting Miller A. What's starting to happen is a little more than just bad luck per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree. This December was not very mild. Through 12/29: BOS: +2.5 ORH: +1.3 BDL: +1.3 PVD: +1.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I see the meltdowns have started. The MJO is moving and it'll get into the more favorable phases soon. Pattern change isn't getting pushed back, it's just that people are wanting it to change faster than expected. Believe it or not things do remain on track for a 1/20 change, possibly with an Archambault event of some sort. But if things do turn rotten then it's out of our hands and will serve as an important learning experience. It's hard to get angry when the last 20 years have been some of the snowiest on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will say this, and then I'm out for a bit until this place ceaces to a cespool. Current guidance tending warmer in early January only serves to bolster my confidence in the ideas that I have outlined, as the portion of the outlook that I was least confident in was the above normal January. I had feared it would verify colder. I'll post some thoughts in the outlook thread about how I feel December verified, but other then that, there is absolutely, positively zero left to be said at this point. Happy New Year. It’s more of the mild weather was unforeseen and not predicted....or should I say not predicted correctly. I wouldn’t say it’s behaving like a niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The main problem is the heart of winter which is Dec and Jan is likely lost. You lose basically 2 out of 3 winter months. And then it’s Feb. And then Morch brings spring. By no means are we cancelling winter, but a 3-4 week period of snows isn’t what anyone ever envisioned. I actually agree, it's fine for people to melt and whine when 2/3 of the winter will be lost.. 3-4 weeks of snow is good for some I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The reason for the significant bifurcation b/t the GFS and ECMWF based guidance in the D7+ period is almost entirely MJO/tropical forcing related. The ECMWF has been insistent upon killing the wave, while the GEFS propagates this wave eastward. The ECMWF has been correcting more / more coherent each day with respect to the MJO; further the stratospheric amplification suggests this will carry eastward. I cannot envisage a physical reason for a rapid COD entrance. Clearly, both sets of data are intransigently insisting upon their respective solutions, and the inflection point w/ the MJO is right now. We'll know by January 1st what the picture looks like. Note: EPS much less unfavorable than the operational beyond D7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nothing to be said about the future. Zero. Changes absolutely zero. You talk in absolutes about something that is far from certain. You fail to account what is currently happen and dismiss all notion you may be wrong. This will be a learning experience for many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It was for Jerry. 12/24/94 was a big storm with no snow for anyone. Not that this will be big, but funny how mild it is. Well it was a tropical storm in 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will say this, and then I'm out for a bit until this place ceaces to a cespool. Current guidance tending warmer in early January only serves to bolster my confidence in the ideas that I have outlined, as the portion of the outlook that I was least confident in was the above normal January. I had feared it would verify colder. I'll post some thoughts in the outlook thread about how I feel December verified, but other then that, there is absolutely, positively zero left to be said at this point. Happy New Year. come on bro, it's all good fun, you can post with us anymore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I see the meltdowns have started. The MJO is moving and it'll get into the more favorable phases soon. Pattern change isn't getting pushed back, it's just that people are wanting it to change faster than expected. Believe it or not things do remain on track for a 1/20 change, possibly with an Archambault event of some sort. But if things do turn rotten then it's out of our hands and will serve as an important learning experience. It's hard to get angry when the last 20 years have been some of the snowiest on record. Good post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 bet the 18z has a blizzard.. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Looks like quite the eps cave in the 11-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I called for a warmer than normal January and the bulk of action to occur beyond 1/20. Brian nailed this post 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Phase 8 claimed Tip the pattern change is on hold, Ray Dog said by 1/20 it’s about to turn cold. Now the trough’s dropping and Kevin’s yelling....it’s a tad bit late....Judah Cohen and Ray Dog have to regulate. Too many Zimas ,aren't you on vacation? Go for a swim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I firmly believe most if not all of Jan is lost. The mjo is not moving , stuck in phase 5/6 . The Pacific is absolutely hideous. It’s beyond bad. Jan 20 isn’t magically going to just look good as we get closer Wow you now agree to what I said in November. We are finally on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like quite the eps cave in the 11-15. It’s been 12z good, 00z bad for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Amazing group neurotic reaction this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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