ma blizzard Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 gotta love the run to run consistency from the goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 May need to watch that 2nd s/w in the northern stream looks like it may try to phase with the one down south or gives it the boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Slower in the southwest...faster in the northern stream. Looking more like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Canadian goinf for the 00z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looking at individual Euro Ens members there is going to be a pretty intense storm 4th to 6th on the East Coast, with a new moon tide to boot. Not surprised. Deets to be worked out. Agreed re overall active pattern for these first couple of weeks... Doesn't appear to be connected to hemispheric concerns with AO ... Mjo and PNA even appear in disconnect during this particular evolution of events. There appears to be counter-balancing larger scaled influences acting on the general circulation theme over this side of the hemisphere. Fascinating. I've been on top of the indexes lately ...more so than usual, as lot of unused OOO time gave me a couple weeks here in December... The PNA was subtle albeit suggestive of some sort of Archembault correction chances for awhile and so seeing these frets and starts materializing in the individual members ... understandable, once on this side of the se bulge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Slower in the southwest...faster in the northern stream. Looking more like the euro. Are we still in euro is not good mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian goinf for the 00z euro. Shifted east Nice hit for the berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Shifted east Not hit for the berks Work on your English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Are we still in euro is not good mode? I’m not sure. I sign in at 6am every morning and read about the FV3 and ICON bringing a big storm and the Euro having a SW energy bias and then by midday sanity is restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are we still in euro is not good mode? Ask James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: I’m not sure. I sign in at 6am every morning and read about the FV3 and ICON bringing a big storm and the Euro having a SW energy bias and then by midday sanity is restored. ...well, in that context, it's whatever models shows the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: I’m not sure. I sign in at 6am every morning and read about the FV3 and ICON bringing a big storm and the Euro having a SW energy bias and then by midday sanity is restored. Once I see Icon and Fv3 mentioned, time to make coffee and see what Trump effed up overnight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just love how the GFS is with EC systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Once I see Icon and Fv3 mentioned, time to make coffee and see what Trump effed up overnight. That is a lengthy list and he adds to it on an hour by hour basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Mm...this entire suite looks like it's running home to assimilations ... I wonder if some sampling is either missed, corrupted, or shadowed ...or some combination of all the above. That kind of continuity shift going from spectral ends of power to pallid is a bit beyond present day tech handling ... Not saying the models are intrinsically that good either - but, ... unfortunately, we can't see any diagnostic information due to Trump haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Some light snow verbatim from weak WAA ahead of system coming in from the lakes. I’d take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The GGEM's reasonable spatial consistency while mainly losing the mechanical amplitude is also a smoking gun for a data/sampling related matters. I'm inclined to think the Euro ends up a little flatter...though it's superior 4-d system may atone for any discrepancy/shortcomings in that regard, it may not avoiding it altogether. It would mean a slightly cooler profile (if so...) and several ensuing hours of 'better mood' as things seem strangely optimistic in the forum world.. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The GEFS/EPS are going to keep flip flopping day to day, so it is what it is. The MJO should move into phase 7 pretty quickly once we enter the new year. It may be there by Jan 5-7. It's a high amplitude MJO so I don't buy it getting stuck in phase 7 or even looping as one model suggests. Regardless, phase 7 is a hell of a lot better than 5/6 and models will eventually reflect that. The 3/4 system looks like either a missed phase or a cutter, never bought into it. Pattern doesn't support a snowstorm right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Work on your English. Okay mommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Nice warm up returning on the GFS as we approach the resolution drop at 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Okay mommy I'm your daddy, Your post made 0 sense. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The GEFS/EPS are going to keep flip flopping day to day, so it is what it is. The MJO should move into phase 7 pretty quickly once we enter the new year. It may be there by Jan 5-7. It's a high amplitude MJO so I don't buy it getting stuck in phase 7 or even looping as one model suggests. Regardless, phase 7 is a hell of a lot better than 5/6 and models will eventually reflect that. The 3/4 system looks like either a missed phase or a cutter, never bought into it. Pattern doesn't support a snowstorm right now. No in-between huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just looked at all the models on Tidbits. I like what I'm seeing with the lows staying off shore. That's really god trend/start. However, the CMC model it has a slight warm bias, I've seen this with is track. I'm actually more afraid of a graze than a storm center riding up through the far south shore, Cape Cod area. The Euro will be interesting to say the least come 1:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Just looked at all the models on Tidbits. I like what I'm seeing with the lows staying off shore. That's really good! However like the CMC model it has a slight warm bias, I've seen this with is track. I'm actually more afraid of a graze than a storm center riding up through the far south shore, Cape Cod area. The Euro will be interesting to say the least come 1:00 PM. Dude...if it’s all southern stream and no northern stream, we can have a perfect BM track...still going to be rain outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Ukie Sheesh. If that cuts, maybe we can get another DSD out of it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dude...if it’s all southern stream and no northern stream, we can have a perfect BM track...still going to be rain outside of the mountains. You want the northern stream energy to help enhance the primary low but not too much. I guess it is a little like "threading the needle" per se but doable. In other words, the system coming down from the great lakes needs to help a little bit as a kicker but not too much so that it goes further out to sea at the same time enhancing it but not too much so it goes over the Cape. This solution is still doable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Sheesh. If that cuts, maybe we can get another DSD out of it at least. Tough telling from there, Could hug too if it moves NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 In this pattern it's either a cutter or surpressed, nothing changes for at least another three weeks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sheesh. If that cuts, maybe we can get another DSD out of it at least. That looks really slow compared to the 12z GFS and 00z EC. Like 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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