moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I loved seeing several pages of new posts when I came down this morning. Haven't seen that tell-tale sign in a very, very long time. I want a deep blanket of snow so the home inspector has limited ability to check things outside. Out of sight, out of mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still a long way to go and it’s very marginal I'm not sure if I've ever read a measured post by you. Are you feeling okay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure if I've ever read a measured post by you. Are you feeling okay? Mods are controlling him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: what crap? you might have the wrong poster bro.. earlier in the day? Oh ...well, if that's the case, my bad - but someone was dolin' it out over the fact that I've referenced the lesser reliable model types; which of course I know that they are lesser reliable, which if they had a clue themselves why deterministic Meteorology sometimes does look outside the box ... that might stop them from looking like cackling hoi polloi nimrods. But ...such is the engagement on a faceless internet that exploits the fine virtuosity of anonymity. Anyway, ...sorry but only if you are telling the truth ha! let's see what happened over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure if I've ever read a measured post by you. Are you feeling okay? Dendrite said they prefer frauds like qg omega over me. So I’ve become hesitant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 This looks like it needs to thread the needle for SNE to avoid more rain. Nothing really stopping this from hugging the coast or even tracking right overhead. I’ll even pass on a few inches of snow that gets washed away. Ski areas should get a nice replenishment. Hey, at least it’s something to track. Reading posts that the EPS went meh for post 1/7 is a bit disheartening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dendrite said they prefer frauds like qg omega over me. So I’ve become hesitant LOL--I thought Brian's post was a typo and that he meant to say "meds are controlling you". Meanwhile, I'm at the wrong Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dendrite said they prefer frauds like qg omega over me. So I’ve become hesitant Netflix is controlling you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Netflix is controlling you Netflix? I don’t follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 hours ago, dryslot said: How long are you up in the county? Just till tomorrow...one more day of riding. Friday’s snow here made all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Off the top of my head Euro head - 1 ... agree with your sentiments re trend, however ... 2 ... moving forward, it still appears to conserve too much mechanical power in the ejection/egress through the western Tennessee Valley frames. It is sloped positively a little along that front side. The physical processing should when trying to circular saw that gyre into an impressive ridge. The surrounding synoptic medium offers an easier way if/when atoning for tendency to hold back too much weight. 3 ... it was sort of doing better on the 12z run yesterday. That may not be what one wants to hear, because undoubtedly ...they're now set to remembering that run's blithe face smacking solution. However, if the model is too conserved (again)... and the mechanics are in situ backed off a little, it can take an appeasing N track into the E. Mind you ...I'm not saying Great Lakes or anything... Going with our local vernacular ...this couldn't be a better definition of a "needle threader" 4 ... the whole of this solution is so warm (in part) because it has so much mid level power, owing to this stream of reasoning. A slightly less conserved total evolution foists less warm air ... That all might parlay (upshot) in a colder use of a marginal atmosphere. ... as though all that were not enough .. There are other non-zero possibilities, I for one am just not sure ... Namely one, the SE ridge could in the process of attenuating for losing the supersynoptic foundation... This thing getting ejected east in the first place .. .it really is a signal that something is changing, because all this impulse is, is the the remnant western trough anchor point that's being quasi cut off and ejected E ...That doesn't happen unless there is a paradigm hiccup booting it out of the SW ...how profound that turns out to be, notwithstanding... By the way, said shift is pretty clearly underway toward the end of that run. The flow is relaxed(ing) markedly post D7 ...and by 10...it's a prelude to 60 N blocking nodes as well a less gradient overall. With plenty of cold air, that's all a prelude to increasing cyclogen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Nice...that 00z Parallel run of the GFS ... didn't notice at the time but the latter system closer to the 8th is a juggernaut snow producer by using only midland mechanics in that look. That crictical thickness levels are ideal. That cold high is just so quintessentially perfectly placed NNE of Maine and mightily...immovably noses down. Any systemic inflow of any kind is immediately tilted vertically such that the whole thing absolutely maximizes lift. That would be awesome ...I want that soo much. Not even for the experience of snow, itself. Those that know me know that I don't really care, so if I want something ... I have some devious reason for wanting it. In this case? It's so that despite the last six weeks of enormity clocked, come January 10 ...the region is normal ... probably above normal seasonal snow fall... Between November's thing, the 3rd's 4-6" and a solution like that... one probably nearing a foot... Delicious - Aw ratz ... 06z doesn't have it... shouldn't have got all hoped up with kleenex and tissue paper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Netflix? I don’t follow? Interactive episode of Black Mirror on Netflix (Bandersnatch). We are being controlled by people using Netflix... Anyhoo, some potential showing up. Let’s get past this next rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Okay...so... just looked at the 06z operational GFS - That's a huge snow solution for along and NW of HFD-BED/ASH line (SNE) ... Nw of that axis no doubt. When accounting for the GFS BL warm bias...absolutely a crushing. There's a lot to that solution ...once doing that conversion/adjusting. One of the more glaring ... the mid level mechanical cores are all perfectly tracked comparative to climo... and just physics anyway! That climatology is there because those sort of tracks always do the same thing, which is rip huge frotogen/bands. There'd almost have to be thunder in a solution/evolution such as this 06z cycle. That 500mb evolution melon ballin' a 522 dm core like that, is a remarkable destablization signal ...one concurrent in space and time with a 500mb, 100 to 110 knt wind maxim just E of Boston? Holy hell... there would definitely be a 4+/hr rated band somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 deg lat/lon around the left exit region with multipulsed flashing, house frame buzzers. Course... have to say...that's not a forecast - just analyzing this one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 TTGW We like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Just till tomorrow...one more day of riding. Friday’s snow here made all the difference. There going to get another 6-8"+ new years eve/day up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Hey who called for snow today? I just was outside, snow sky, sure enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6z cold biased FV3 is warmer than the perpendicular run. So what do we make of that? Did we just divide by zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: 6z cold biased FV3 is warmer than the perpendicular run. So what do we make of that? Did we just divide by zero? Whatever solution is less snow is always the safest route ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Whatever solution is less snow is always the safest route ... It actually looks similar aloft, but it’s a little less amped/more progressive than the op. We’ll see....still lots to shake out and I’ll be shoveling snow and sleet to start the new year anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6z cold biased FV3 is warmer than the perpendicular run. So what do we make of that? Did we just divide by zero? Still looking for something other than anecdotal data on the cold bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Damn.... the world really needs to remove Trump from power... for the sole singular reason of turning on the f'n Climate Diagnostic Center!!! ...anyway...I wanted to check out the on-line Library at WPO but of course can't because the upper rank and file are taking their ball and running home because they can't stand losing... Imagining a sensible evolution that fits what the 06z run's overall complexion/evolution is giving us... hearkens to December 1996 ... But without seeing the charts I may be totally off on that as any sort of analog - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: It actually looks similar aloft, but it’s a little less amped/more progressive than the op. We’ll see....still lots to shake out and I’ll be shoveling snow and sleet to start the new year anyway. Wish we lived there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey who called for snow today? I just was outside, snow sky, sure enough Enjoying my weenie flakes with my corn flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey who called for snow today? I just was outside, snow sky, sure enough Had a few grainy flakes here. December salvaged! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still looking for something other than anecdotal data on the cold bias lol...we posted the anomaly correlations for the para and perp before. Positive error for perp, negative error for para. Idk if they’re accessible right now since our govt is full of a bunch of POS’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still looking for something other than anecdotal data on the cold bias Ha... actually a good point. I haven't seen any testing of that particular metric, either. In fact, I read a whole slide show from the modelers that discussed the FV3's gains and lags ... Their goal at release time is not to foist an operational tool on the world that is worse than the GFS's usual suspects. Tie goes to the runner, being the impetus ...but improvements were noted. It's something ... It at least says that the BL handling isn't worse for one. Heh. The biggest buggaboo about the FV3' is that it still has a progressivity bias like the operational version, which they admit, but...sited how/why it is not at least worse.. it's just similar. Frankly, I've noticed a system frequency bias in the last 90 days of my own observation of this model. What I mean... forget profiling specifics ... it just has too many storms in the field. Not sure what the exact quotas break/broke down to over that 90 days... but, tacitly it has too many of them. Edit, sorry Brian ... I did not see that material either. May as well throw it up again ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still looking for something other than anecdotal data on the cold bias It’s observed according to Chris. I’m sure it’s in the model stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Had a few grainy flakes here. December salvaged! Puts me at 170 days with a least a trace of precip this year, tomorrow night will be 171 if it rains before midnight. Holy wet cloudy friggin year, when you take into account we went basically 4 weeks this summer without rain that's a whole lot of crap days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Geez, just saw 6z GFS. Push that a little east and we in bidness. Of course, can't trust the GFS as far as we can throw it, but one can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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