Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is basically a BM track, not much different than JUNO was. i assume the only comparison here is track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 And Hazey, it is five days away from this time around, not 7+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i assume the only comparison here is track? Yes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i assume the only comparison here is track? Yes...and even that is a stretch. There is no reason to compare the two storms at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Of course our snowy friend the FV3 has a snowstorm. Not a suprise at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes...and even that is a stretch. There is no reason to compare the two storms at all. No there isn't, because JUNO was a rare situation, this is not that storm, not meant to hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: EURO is on a side of its own at this point, it isn't as accurate as it used to be anyways. Its been pretty spot on the last three storm systems, I don't think anyone would be discarding it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The GFS brought snow people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Its been pretty spot on the last three storm systems, I don't think anyone would be discarding it seriously. Even if it is on its own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: Of course our snowy friend the FV3 has a snowstorm. Not a suprise at all. it's only out to 3 hrs for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its been pretty spot on the last three storm systems, I don't think anyone would be discarding it seriously. The key is the northern stream energy diving south around day 3 and how it interacts with southern stream....the Euro whiffs on the phase/partial phase because it hangs back the southern stream over the southwest US. The other guidance at 00z tonight does not unless we include the 72-84 hour NAM as part of the guidance suite....I suppose we can, but it's less skilled than the other at this time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Even if it is on its own? At 5 days I’d weigh it 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 You know… It would be ironic, if not hilarious… But we could actually not even be in January yet and already have a reasonably high confidence winter storm in the works. That, when seething over how much of Jan would suck too. I know I know blah blah blah nobody actually said that... but it's definitely in the air and the attitude 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 It is very interesting right now. You have your warmest bias models saying snow to rain as the storm tracks over Cape Cod or South Shore. The colder bias models, the GFS, NavGEM and Para give a potentially good snowstorm. We'll see where the Euro tracks tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: At 5 days I’d weigh it 70%. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 I love this post from PF in Jan 2015 when I was arguing with him because I was so emphatic on E SNE being in the honey hole for an epic second half. Haha I think you may be right, especially the second half of the winter. And sorry I have a pet peeve with the percent of normal thing just because of how it works relative to your average. I get just as bent when I see those seasonal forecasts for 150-200% of normal...which is pretty much all-time and then some. The first half of winter definitely seemed to favor W/NW New England to some extent. We had multiple paste bombs where it rained in the east, and a foot of Thanksgiving snow amongst countless 1-5" events. I've had three solid warning snows so far when last year to date had zero. But this is now a different pattern it seems so in the end you could very well be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Even if it is on its own? Absolutely not, It tracks the low thru PWM on the 12z run, That looks very reasonable at this time, The GFS is OTS, Split the difference and you have a lot of happy folks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Huh. The GFS has a cold bias? On which planet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love this post from PF in Jan 2015 getting pissy because I was so emphatic on E SNE being in the honey hole for an epic second half. Haha I think you may be right, especially the second half of the winter. And sorry I have a pet peeve with the percent of normal thing just because of how it works relative to your average. I get just as bent when I see those seasonal forecasts for 150-200% of normal...which is pretty much all-time and then some. The first half of winter definitely seemed to favor W/NW New England to some extent. We had multiple paste bombs where it rained in the east, and a foot of Thanksgiving snow amongst countless 1-5" events. I've had three solid warning snows so far when last year to date had zero. But this is now a different pattern it seems so in the end you could very well be right. dude we have snow coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: At 5 days I’d weigh it 70%. Too generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Can already tell that the FV3 GFS will have it and it's only out to hour 60.. This is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The key is the northern stream energy diving south around day 3 and how it interacts with southern stream....the Euro whiffs on the phase/partial phase because it hangs back the southern stream over the southwest US. The other guidance at 00z tonight does not unless we include the 72-84 hour NAM as part of the guidance suite....I suppose we can, but it's less skilled than the other at this time lead. Yup, Euro likes to hold back the s/w in the SW so you can factor that in and and still come with a favorable solution, The 12z solution was not that far off if you eject that sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Huh. The GFS has a cold bias? On which planet? It actually is a more progressive model but can at times blow too much warm air in here when thermal profiles are actually colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, ineedsnow said: Can already tell that the FV3 GFS will have it and it's only out to hour 60.. This is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: dude we have snow coming.. Cool...haven't looked. I'll have to get caught up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, Euro likes to hold back the s/w in the SW so you can factor that in and and still come with a favorable solution, The 12z solution was not that far off if you eject that sooner. The northern stream also dives in big time on the GFS. Massive difference....Euro hangs back SW energy, but it's actually not that much more than the GFS does, only slightly. Look at the northern stream though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: It actually is more progressive of a model but can at times blow too much warm air in here when thermal profiles are actually colder. It used to be cold biased 20 years ago but they overcompensated in some fixes and now often is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I will have to get some rest, we got a lot of potential weather this upcoming month of January after the New Year holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: It's actually is more progressive of a model but can at times blow too much warm air in here when thermal profiles are actually colder. No no no the GFS has a registered warm bias in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: It's actually is more progressive of a model but can at times blow too much warm air in here when thermal profiles are actually colder. Definitely warm, But it also handles EC systems rather poorly until we get close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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