40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Blame the mjo This shouldn't be happening in a weak EL Nino. We should be swimming in snow. We should not be swimming in snow in December of a weak el nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 well it looks nice but not excited with the only support it has is from the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 It's not that far fetched, guys... Folks may be too ingrained in the arts of pattern loathing to see matters otherwise, but... the idea of "anomalies happening at any given time" is still very much a part of reality. Getting one to happen? Okay, but it may only seem impossible in a Stockholm hostage situation Yesterday I remarked that pushing that Euro system through the deep south was less likely, ...while today ...it does lift it more curvi-linear around the NW arc of the ridge ... That trajectory might allow it to maintain more cohesion - otherwise it would/should have lost it in the height compression and absorbed. The GFS was doing that according to theoretics rather nicely ... in fact still is... too well? It could also be too prodigious in doing so, which means its attenuation is prematurely ... possibly as a physical species too ... because the GEFs members individually both have and have no identity of that system. Since the Euro, GGEM and the GFS' own parallel run ... all have a coherent entity in the flow capable of inducing a swatch of synoptic usual suspects. I'd say keep and I on that. Systems of this nature fit in between the supersynoptic scaled index variances and are not very well seen using more common tools. 'Course there's other issues... A blend of the ones that do ...may not be ideally situate ... but... this dearth has gone on long enough, I think most would concede to the usefulness in having just about any possibility at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's not that far fetched, guys... Folks may be too ingrained in the arts of pattern loathing to see matters otherwise, but... the idea of "anomalies happening at any given time" is still very much a part of reality. Getting one to happen? Okay, but it may only seem impossible in a Stockholm hostage situation Yesterday I remarked that pushing that Euro system through the deep south was less likely, ...while today ...it does lift it more curvi-linear around the NW arc of the ridge ... That trajectory might allow it to maintain more cohesion - otherwise it would/should have lost it in the height compression and absorbed. The GFS was doing that according to theoretics rather nicely ... in fact still is... too well? It could also be too prodigious in doing so, which means its attenuation is prematurely ... possibly as a physical species too ... because the GEFs members individually both have and have no identity of that system. Since the Euro, GGEM and the GFS' own parallel run ... all have a coherent entity in the flow capable of inducing a swatch of synoptic usual suspects. I'd say keep and I on that. Systems of this nature fit in between the supersynoptic scaled index variances and are not very well seen using more common tools. In other words, you’re saying there’s a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: not been following the FV3, any good ? replacing the current GFS right? I believe Scott uses it as tp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: In other words, you’re saying there’s a chance. ...somethin' like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 If you look at the 12z euro and 18z GFS, it would seem like the FV3 is a compromise between the two. So maybe not so far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I do remember some of us discussing futility record about 2 weeks before the snow blitz began in 2015. Pretty sure Ray said Heil Futility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I believe Scott uses it as tp. We wipe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty sure Ray said Heil Futility Pretty sure what I said was that if the pattern were to fail, then I'd prefer to go futility. I wasn't resigned to it, nor did I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty sure what I said was that if the pattern were to fail, then I'd prefer to go futility. I wasn't resigned to it, nor did I give up. I think that was everyone’s stance. It may be again in a month...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, rimetree said: If you look at the 12z euro and 18z GFS, it would seem like the FV3 is a compromise between the two. So maybe not so far fetched. do expect an elephant's amount of heavy handed suppression attempts of any optimism at all for that thing until it's already happened at this point. given to the climate of disparity in here superseding all else. Can't say I blame anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, kdxken said: best post of the day . Thanks. I honestly think the lack of snow in December has begun to cause a manifested obsession over getting a perfect or near-perfect pattern. Most of our snow events don't even occur in those patterns. They are nice because they provide a lot more margin for error but the upcoming pattern plus climo is getting us to a point where we can easily score some respectable events. Fwiw, I do think we're probably going to get a kocin cookbook pattern later in the month into February but we don't need it to snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoth said: No complaints here. Agreed. I love only having 4 below average winters this century 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thanks. I honestly think the lack of snow in December has begun to cause a manifested obsession over getting a perfect or near-perfect pattern. Most of our snow events don't even occur in those patterns. They are nice because they provide a lot more margin for error but the upcoming pattern plus climo is getting us to a point where we can easily score some respectable events. Fwiw, I do think we're probably going to get a kocin cookbook pattern later in the month into February but we don't need it to snow. Ha... I just prequeled that sentiment a few posts ago... it's lost on most people's rage at this point - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha... I just prequeled that sentiment a few posts ago... it's lost on most people's rage at this point - Yeah you did. I didn't see the post until I made mine but you have sort of been hitting on that theme in earlier posts as well. Usually what happens is while everyone is searching for the big dog pattern, an event sneaks up on us and all of the sudden there are winter storm watches up for 8-12" on a little critter that bites (NJ bight style) or an overrunning event into a Caribou Maine high pressure... We slip on the banana peel while searching for the larger hazard on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you did. I didn't see the post until I made mine but you have sort of been hitting on that theme in earlier posts as well. Usually what happens is while everyone is searching for the big dog pattern, an event sneaks up on us and all of the sudden there are winter storm watches up for 8-12" on a little critter that bites (NJ bight style) or an overrunning event into a Caribou Maine high pressure... We slip on the banana peel while searching for the larger hazard on the horizon. The idea for 120 hours isn't new folks - btw... Like we're saying here, this is a go-between index sort of arrangement ... and typically that's how a region gets stung while preoccupied looking for honey. We'll see, ...but rackin' up a 'nother 4-6" on the seasonal totals ...I think that's been covered by a few of us actually as not impossible. Hell, that could happen...melt off entirely... before we ever commit to a real supersynoptic shift for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the real premium pattern will be setting up in the 2nd half of the month but we are already improved quite a bit before that. Keep in mind we don't need this obscenely perfect Kocin Cookbook pattern in early to mid January to have good snow threats in New England. That's getting to peak winter climo. Near normal is plenty good enough here. It's probably even more beneficial for us if the best of it holds off so we can get the 4-6 weeks of premium pattern to line up so that it includes all of February when climo starts rising again somewhat. We are getting some good PNA action though by Jan 4-10 so we could easily score a solid event in there somewhere. After this next soaker that soaks 80% of this entire site with rain. Things look to dry out dramatically. You guys might catch a clipper tho. Hopefully because of your climo you don't get screwed with light rain if the system passes North of you. November was awesome over the Eastern 2/3rds. It's just really disheartening to scan the gfs and see literally nothing through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, The_Global_Warmer said: After this next soaker that soaks 80% of this entire site with rain. Things look to dry out dramatically. You guys might catch a clipper tho. Hopefully because of your climo you don't get screwed with light rain if the system passes North of you. November was awesome over the Eastern 2/3rds. It's just really disheartening to scan the gfs and see literally nothing through the entire run. How dis heartening is it when there's been 20 of those kind of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How dis heartening is it when there's been 20 of those kind of runs Because there is always the snow weenie hope that something in the medium range onwards will abruptly change in the digital snow fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I think the problem is that it’s been pulling teeth to try to get snow even in a decent pattern. It’s probably subjective too as far as what people think is good. For me, I’m looking for something serviceable and not just an advisory event that will torch away two days later when it’s 60. Something that may offer at least some semblance of a wintry stretch. I hope to God nobody is looking for a Kocin look. If one were to take the EPS, that may take until at least the 10th or so for a good stretch, but the end did look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 hours ago, weathafella said: EPS was decent but not great. It has been oscillating back and forth suggesting epic pattern is still >2 weeks away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: How about 1977-78 and 2004-05? Je ne sais pas. Demander a dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 ICON has quite the system on the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 graphics i have don't tell me prep type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: graphics i have don't tell me prep type Rain to snow, but wow down to 958 mb just east of Maine! I think this has huge potential to surprise and been saying that the last couple of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS at hr84 looks way different so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Rain to snow, but wow down to 958 mb just east of Maine! I think this has huge potential to surprise and been saying that the last couple of days.. Yeah ICON has a bomb east of ME, get that about 50 miles further east, everyone is happy snow for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, ineedsnow said: GFS at hr84 looks way different so far canadian has it, a bit faster.. snow to rain 984 over MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS about to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts