Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: No no no the GFS has a registered warm bias in the boundary layer. That's what I'm trying to say/get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Bet you I'm right.. can see the energy diving in from Canada and the energy in the southwest is ejecting out perfectly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 In this situation each model is playing into its bias specific charm… At this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 edit: for some reason i cannot get the gif to animate on this site...happens all the time. Really annoying problem with Amex. 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The northern stream also dives in big time on the GFS. Massive difference....Euro hangs back SW energy, but it's actually not that much more than the GFS does, only slightly. Look at the northern stream though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: That's what I'm trying to say. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Will I don't know how that post did that - that was general audience directed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Can already tell that the FV3 GFS will have it and it's only out to hour 60.. This is coming! The 3 hasn’t seen a shortwave it couldn’t turn into a snowstorm. 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I will have to get some rest, we got a lot of potential weather this upcoming month of January after the New Year holiday. Come back next year king weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The key is the northern stream energy diving south around day 3 and how it interacts with southern stream....the Euro whiffs on the phase/partial phase because it hangs back the southern stream over the southwest US. The other guidance at 00z tonight does not unless we include the 72-84 hour NAM as part of the guidance suite....I suppose we can, but it's less skilled than the other at this time lead. My money is on a correction there....that remains a bias of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Would love to see the Euro give a favorable solution later tonight. If it does, then we will all be happy to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Would love the Euro to see a favorable solution later tonight. If it does, then we will all be happy to track. Euro loves to drag its heels in the southwest... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The 3 hasn’t seen a shortwave it couldn’t turn into a snowstorm. Come back next year king weenie. I have to agree here. The parallelogram has not been shy about wintery profiled events over the last month and how many have verified that I have been beyond day four or five? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I have to agree here. The parallelogram has not been shy about wintery profiled events over the last month and how many have verified that I have been beyond day four or five? I've yet to view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I have to agree here. The parallelogram has not been shy about wintery profiled events over the last month and how many have verified that I have been beyond day four or five? don'T forget ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Would this potentially be called a Miller A or Hybrid sort of storm? I'm guessing a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In this situation each model is playing into its bias specific charm… At this range. Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've yet to view it. Best not to. Everytime I do I see d5+ snows for all. Curious what its scores are inside d5 though, esp if it will grow up to be the gfs one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Would this potentially be called a Miller A or Hybrid sort of storm? i Just want to know what the TWC will call it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Will I don't know how that post did that - that was general audience directed I was complaining about my comparison of the GFS and Euro not animating despite me uploading an animated GIF file. This site loves to do that on a fairly regular basis. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Anyways, here's the still frame comparison....note the obscene difference in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: Would this potentially be called a Miller A or Hybrid sort of storm? Looks like a hybrid to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i Just want to know what the TWC will call it I think they may actually call it Bostonseminole. I heard that. It may be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: don'T forget ICON Well you should pay attention ... that's your new GFS before the end of this next month Also every models had its day. Drop it ... you're being a smart ass I get it but you sound like an ignoramus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 00z Ukie isn't even close...looks like an even crappier version of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro loves to drag its heels in the southwest... Just knowing that bias , Its in a pretty good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Anyway… The uptick in amplitude coming in this evening sort of feels expected to me? Not sure what the euros going to show regarding this but I'm out. I'll just leave by saying that there still a lot of possible solutions on the table obviously we know that but just don't get gitty if that's even physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well you should pay attention ... that's your new GFS before the end of this next month Also every models had its day. Drop it ... you're being a smart ass I get it but you sound like an ignoramus hmm.. that's not cool.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i Just want to know what the TWC will call it Fisher or Gia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 it's interesting... Honestly I have not paid much attention to that particular model in years I have no idea what it's bias profiles are like. I just simply don't have the time to get acquainted I know that it used to always have an amp bias in the mid range ...yet this solution appears to be underdone if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just knowing that bias , Its in a pretty good spot right now. Some of these biases are likely outdated. We used that back in the early 2000s. The model has gone through many changes since then. Maybe it still holds, but I’d want to see something more scientific before believing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 0Z FV3 993mb just south of islands.. crappy resolution @120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z Ukie isn't even close...looks like an even crappier version of the 12z Euro. Probably means Euro won’t bite yet. Not as solid a rule as it once was but probably still 75-25 it follows it to some extent. Especially on a cycle where big changes occur on other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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