Hoth Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Puts me at 170 days with a least a trace of precip this year, tomorrow night will be 171 if it rains before midnight. Holy wet cloudy friggin year, when you take into account we went basically 4 weeks this summer without rain that's a whole lot of crap days You've had an astoundingly wet year. It's been very wet here too, but you've got me beat by a solid 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still looking for something other than anecdotal data on the cold bias Its in the emc model verification. It runs the cold at the surface compared to the op GFS and the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...we posted the anomaly correlations for the para and perp before. Positive error for perp, negative error for para. Idk if they’re accessible right now since our govt is full of a bunch of POS’s. I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Its in the emc model verification. It runs the cold at the surface compared to the op GFS and the other models. Thanks Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Nick beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Second image should be p1000 but same difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Word! thanks Nick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Yep and not by a small margin either. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 So I see what you mean, then, Brian - If I may make a supposition/suggestion? I bet that incongruency may be because the operational GFS has found it's way (06z ) to an almost perfect dynamic fold model... and is processing the atmosphere colder ... so in effect, compensating its own bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Nick beat me to it. Man UKmet kicks a lot of ass lately, going to give Crazy Unk credit for his AA enrollment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The whole 1000-500 layer runs cold. So it's not just a surface thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 So in other words. Rainer to Mainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I mean I guess it's good we don't have to worry about those dry adiabatic boundary layers with heavy precip anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: The whole 1000-500 layer runs cold. So it's not just a surface thing. You know ... ( I love a good conspiracy theory) ... one wonders ... The operational GFS has spent the last 18 months with an embarrassing torch bias in the boundary layer... now this? Seems a bit "interestingly compensating" huh? But maybe it's intended to fix that and isn't so secretive either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: You've had an astoundingly wet year. It's been very wet here too, but you've got me beat by a solid 10". SE winds with convergence into small elevated hills. Ryan tweeted an excellent paper on the effect plus I had that training redeveloping Tstorm that continually raked my area in Sept for a 4.95 day that most had only 2. Also you dryslotted in the March snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 This is weird. It’s great in the stratosphere, but horrible in the troposphere. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You know ... ( I love a good conspiracy theory) ... one wonders ... The operational GFS has spent the last 18 months with an embarrassing torch bias in the boundary layer... now this? Seems a bit "interestingly compensating" huh? But maybe it's intended to fix that and isn't so secretive either. A friend of mine who is a NOAA contractor was specifically working on that op bias over the past year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is weird. It’s great in the stratosphere, but horrible in the troposphere. lol You can see it in the weenie snow algorithms too. It’s quite obvious. Good to see we ****ed up another model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man UKmet kicks a lot of ass lately, going to give Crazy Unk credit for his AA enrollment It’s sneaky good, but still prone to too many whiskey sours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: A friend of mine who is a NOAA contractor was specifically working on that op bias over the past year or two. Oh my god ... dream job - least for me anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is weird. It’s great in the stratosphere, but horrible in the troposphere. lol Time to really start looking at Crazy Unk again, whatever tweek they did to him has worked. Unk off the whiskey juice on the V8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: You can see it in the weenie snow algorithms too. It’s quite obvious. Good to see we ****ed up another model. The GFS wasn't good to begin with lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: SE winds with convergence into small elevated hills. Ryan tweeted an excellent paper on the effect plus I had that training redeveloping Tstorm that continually raked my area in Sept for a 4.95 day that most had only 2. Also you dryslotted in the March snowstorm I think the area from you to Taunton-Plymouth did really well QPF wise. I think we had near 70” here. And to think no major flooding issues. That’s how you run a wet year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: The GFS wasn't good to begin with lol Oh I know, but to think this one has a cold bias that’s rather siggy....ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: You can see it in the weenie snow algorithms too. It’s quite obvious. Good to see we ****ed up another model. Oh come on, Scott... You know full-well that the collective of this particular internet enclave prefers delusion over despair ... hahaha. Unfortunately though ... ...that means we lose those June 19 111 F 2-meter temperature renditions. For warm enthusiasts, heh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh I know, but to think this one has a cold bias that’s rather siggy....ugh. Yeah it is pretty significant. I thought the warm bias on the op was only in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Oh come on, Scott... You know full-well that the collective of this particular internet enclave prefers delusion over despair ... hahaha. Unfortunately though ... ...that means we lose those June 19 111 F 2-meter temperature renditions. For warm enthusiasts, heh... It just means more fodder for the weenies. Ineedsnow will post the snow totals from the FV3, only to have me ruin the party and Debbie it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the area from you to Taunton-Plymouth did really well QPF wise. I think we had near 70” here. And to think no major flooding issues. That’s how you run a wet year. The small stream at the bottom of my hill, Snake Meadow Brook, runs into the Moosup River. It never flooded but stayed at bankfull since the fall. Happy for my well the water tables recovered to pre 2012 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I remember the contents of a UKMET write-up ... wanna say 6 years ago. Which of course 6 years may make this moot... but it was espoused then that the model is actually ranked pretty high in the 500 mb feature evolution... but that it got there in the mean, more so than consistently showing the right solution? Like, it sprays solution in subsequent runs, ...and it's the average position and depth of all that tended to land reasonably well on the verification.... but no one solution along the way actually did. One of those deals... I guess (yeah) that does sound like a crazy uncle if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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