Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly arguing over what trended to what is silly. It’s such a thread the needle that anything could go wrong. Shit pattern drives shit results. 100% approved post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Not according to this Michael Ventrice says Everytime I look at the Day 15 ECMWF EPS, it just keeps getting worse and worse for Winter lovers in the US. We are entering a period where the cold outlooks for Jaanuary keep getting pushed back in time. A forecaster's nightmare Pushed back to mid January..congrats me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. 1994 here we come. Dude, please stop with that crap.. place is already unreadable, you don't need to fuel it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just keep kicking the can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Just keep kicking the can. Yup... eventually it’ll be kicked right into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rays gotta be getting nervous. Absolutely shifting uncomfortably from one cheek to other . Probably nervous farts every now and then too. Not one bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dude, please stop with that crap.. place is already unreadable, you don't need to fuel it. How can you not have fun with his awful pattern. I’d rather have fun with it instead of Snow88 telling me it looks good for SNE. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 I called for a warmer than normal January and the bulk of action to occur beyond 1/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: How can you not have fun with his awful pattern. I’d rather have fun with it instead of Snow88 telling me it looks good for SNE. Fun, yes...but people are already freaking out and seeing someone like you post that is going to lead to 3 pages of train wreck whining. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 You can sense the uneasiness in here, I think were not to far away from someone cancelling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: You can sense the uneasiness in here, I think were not to far away from someone cancelling winter. Same crap, same time four years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The Melts will be coming Fast and Furious this week. Check in again in a week or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fun, yes...but people are already freaking out and seeing someone like you post that is going to lead to 3 pages of train wreck whining. People need to find another hobby if they’re going to bitch on a forum about the lack of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Phase 8 claimed Tip the pattern change is on hold, Ray Dog said by 1/20 it’s about to turn cold. Now the trough’s dropping and Kevin’s yelling....it’s a tad bit late....Judah Cohen and Ray Dog have to regulate. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road. Welcome to 2013 and 2015....the whining will get even louder if we don't grab a good storm within the first 5-7 days of a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fun, yes...but people are already freaking out and seeing someone like you post that is going to lead to 3 pages of train wreck whining. I think they know when I’m serious. For what it’s worth I’m still in agreement with you. I do admit this is concerning for a good stretch, but the firehose will break down at some point. I’m surprised how bad modeling has been. Any good changes immediately break down. I guess like always things are rushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road. There is something to be said about the consistency of the pattern without any semblance of change on the near horizon. Easier to go with what you’ve seen then what you don’t know will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road. I believe it’s a few factors most people aren’t ok with waiting months for winter than punting first 45 days of met winter no matter what some just have very limited faith in MR/LR and have a I’ll believe it when I see it approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Welcome to 2013 and 2015....the whining will get even louder if we don't grab a good storm within the first 5-7 days of a good pattern. People are melting down bc the second week of January may not deliver...it was always a bonus if it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road. I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: There is something to be said about the consistency of the pattern without any semblance of change on the near horizon. Easier to go with what you’ve seen then what you don’t know will come. Nothing to be said about the future. Zero. Changes absolutely zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. The belly to belly idea was always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The main problem is the heart of winter which is Dec and Jan is likely lost. You lose basically 2 out of 3 winter months. And then it’s Feb. And then Morch brings spring. By no means are we cancelling winter, but a 3-4 week period of snows isn’t what anyone ever envisioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. When i had looked back earlier in the fall at winters that were similar to this Modocki Nino, It was pretty much a split to some decent and some duds, Not saying this ends up a dud, But i believe the better ones had produced better results in Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The main problem is the heart of winter which is Dec and Jan is likely lost. You lose basically 2 out of 3 winter months. And then it’s Feb. And then Morch brings spring. By no means are we cancelling winter, but a 3-4 week period of snows isn’t what anyone ever envisioned. Jan isn't lost Look at Jan 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The belly to belly idea was always wrong. True, but all the idiots claiming 02-03 and Modoki polluted everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Jan isn't lost Look at Jan 2015 I firmly believe most if not all of Jan is lost. The mjo is not moving , stuck in phase 5/6 . The Pacific is absolutely hideous. It’s beyond bad. Jan 20 isn’t magically going to just look good as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: When i had looked back earlier in the fall at winters that were similar to this Modocki Nino, It was pretty much a split tome decent and some duds, Not saying this ends up a dud, But i believe the better ones had produced better results in Dec. I honestly think we had bad luck. The pattern through 12-15 was good and even when it was not good...it was ok in NNE. I think the true bad Decembers had a start to finish terrible look. You don’t get record snows in the south and parts of MA in a bad pattern. We just got skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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