SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree. This December was not very mild. Your winter forecast thus far has worked out quite well. Yes it's unfortunate that we missed the early December storm but those are the breaks. December will end up anywhere from +1 to +2 AN, which all things considered isn't that bad for today's climate and for a Nino Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, Isotherm said: The reason for the significant bifurcation b/t the GFS and ECMWF based guidance in the D7+ period is almost entirely MJO/tropical forcing related. The ECMWF has been insistent upon killing the wave, while the GEFS propagates this wave eastward. The ECMWF has been correcting more / more coherent each day with respect to the MJO; further the stratospheric amplification suggests this will carry eastward. I cannot envisage a physical reason for a rapid COD entrance. Clearly, both sets of data are intransigently insisting upon their respective solutions, and the inflection point w/ the MJO is right now. We'll know by January 1st what the picture looks like. Note: EPS much less unfavorable than the operational beyond D7. Ignoring the wheeler diagrams and looking at VP200, it’s slowly moving east. My guess is the pac jet relaxes over the next week and we’ll finally see changes. I know I said it may start to look better after 1/7....but that’s probably too early. Seems like later in the 11-15 day at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been 12z good, 00z bad for some reason. Yin and yang sort of like the holy grail year late Dec runs. I am on the Ray thought train this year. Being out of the winter sports mode I hope we have some big storms that melt. I am now for a year a Charlie Brown window snow watcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yin and yang sort of like the holy grail year late Dec runs. I am on the Ray thought train this year. Being out of the winter sports mode I hope we have some big storms that melt. I am now for a year a Charlie Brown window snow watcher. Can you go out and walk in the snow? Don’t sell the beauty of that short. Good exercise too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same crap, same time four years ago. Same game going on in the mid Atlantic forum. Even I'm frustrated. I still firmly believe the pattern will flip late January but that doesn't make the utter disaster it's been easier to wait through. I thought it would be warm and likely not much snow but I guess I thought we might luck our way to SOME snow here or there. It's been a complete shutout pattern for weeks on end. Yea the threads are a mess but I can understand the emotions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 My neighborhood was a buzz of activity today with chain saws a buzzin all over. Tree cleanup and genny testing for me. At some point soon a snowstorm will pop up out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Can you go out and walk in the snow? Don’t sell the beauty of that short. Good exercise too. I can have to be careful about slipping. One wrong twist. I was being a little facetious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I firmly believe most if not all of Jan is lost. The mjo is not moving , stuck in phase 5/6 . The Pacific is absolutely hideous. It’s beyond bad. Jan 20 isn’t magically going to just look good as we get closer It's moving into 6 and should move into 7 next week per Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Steve D NY/NJWeather Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now. Now we see how the dominos fall. Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Getting some bad breaks is probably the main reason for the melts. Honestly, look at a year like 2004-2005...we had pretty much a really meh to occasionally dogsh** pattern for December and early January but yet we scored events during brief windows of favorability and even during the sh** pattern in early January 2005 we scored two events. It's always about the snow for most of the winter wx lovers and not about patterns or temps. No individual threat in the past month you would expect to work out but collectively you would expect a couple to hit. This was not a December 2006/2011/2015 pattern by any stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 20 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: not been following the FV3, any good ? replacing the current GFS right? 20 hours ago, weathafella said: Comments I’m hearing is it blows. It doesn't blow. It's a marginal improvement over the GFS. Wait, so it actually might blow. Seriously though, through testing in parallel it has been an improvement over the GFS, with a noted progressive bias so far. Also because of the shutdown, implementation will not go as scheduled (no development work allowed). So probably pushed back into February now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Steve D NY/NJWeather Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now. Now we see how the dominos fall. Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW! Will be really thrilling to watch if it doesn’t propagate down to the tropo. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Will be really thrilling to watch if it doesn’t propagate down to the tropo. I would laugh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You talk in absolutes about something that is far from certain. You fail to account what is currently happen and dismiss all notion you may be wrong. This will be a learning experience for many on here. Its accounted for with surgical precision, actually. Could certainly be wrong, but no sign of that that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I would laugh lol Get your popcorn ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been 12z good, 00z bad for some reason. I've actually noticed that too but with the operational version on its own over the last year. Like sloshing ... some sort of diurnal beta function ... or maybe diabetic balancing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been 12z good, 00z bad for some reason. Every so often a model core gets into that 00/12 flip flop cycle. It's usually because of it's handling of one piece of the pattern. The physics are the same, so probably some initialization input? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like quite the eps cave in the 11-15. Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Every so often a model core gets into that 00/12 flip flop cycle. It's usually because of it's handling of one piece of the pattern. The physics are the same, so probably some initialization input? Kevin goes to bed so early the 00z runs don't get his data. 12z injests it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Steve D NY/NJWeather Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now. Now we see how the dominos fall. Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW! This is the same Steve D who said last year’s SSW in February was going to do nothing and vehemently declared winter over. Then March happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Kevin goes to bed so early the 00z runs don't get his data. 12z injests it. Mystery solved. Nocturnal KFS goes towards the COD, while the diurnal run continues to propagate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ignoring the wheeler diagrams and looking at VP200, it’s slowly moving east. My guess is the pac jet relaxes over the next week and we’ll finally see changes. I know I said it may start to look better after 1/7....but that’s probably too early. Seems like later in the 11-15 day at the earliest. I suppose it depends upon one's definition of "better." KU pattern - certainly no by the 7th. However, I do believe the troposphere will be rapidly improving beyond the first week of Jan. The inchoate NAO response occurring this week, with NAM/AO diminution initiating post the first week. The new EPS coincides more closely with the GEFS now re: the NAM decline in the second week of Jan. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Can you elaborate? Looks more like GEFS now. Big difference was big area of high heights in the high arctic which was not there for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is the same Steve D who said last year’s SSW in February was going to do nothing and vehemently declared winter over. Then March happened He isn't the only one that thinks the pattern will get better by mid month because of the ssw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I thought more people would get my song references. You tried hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Same game going on in the mid Atlantic forum. Even I'm frustrated. I still firmly believe the pattern will flip late January but that doesn't make the utter disaster it's been easier to wait through. I thought it would be warm and likely not much snow but I guess I thought we might luck our way to SOME snow here or there. It's been a complete shutout pattern for weeks on end. Yea the threads are a mess but I can understand the emotions. And the Great Lakes/OV forum. Chicago has seen about 1-2” of total snowfall over the past 5 weeks, which will probably become 7 weeks...and parts of WI have seen less than 3” all season. Sure, the pattern may change soon...but even if it does, it won’t save the winter...even it results in something like 3x climo snowfall from 1/15 to 2/28. Winter is supposed to be a mood, a season, a vibe...not just “event driven”. A 2-week wintry period (assuming this even happens) is not winter. The season is 13 weeks, not 2 weeks. That is what’s driving people crazy. Where are the clippers? Windy arctic fronts? Anything resembling the feeling of winter? Where are the seasons in seasons? Weenies across the country are upset...no one is spared. Of course you hold out hope for a dramatic flip...like in Chicago when it hit 69F on 12/29/84 and then -27F 3 weeks later on 1/20/85. But you can’t pin your hopes on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Here's your snow depth today and Jan 1 2015, note how we are in better shape in Canada today. As soon as the Pacific is done puking we need a vodka cold outbreak if we want a similar end to Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Steve D NY/NJWeather Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now. Now we see how the dominos fall. Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW! I wouldn't be surprised if we get a major KU around MLK day, followed up by 2 or 3 more big snows in the next month or so, all accompanied by extreme cold in February. The meltdowns here now will then turn to posts claiming the packs will last until April, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Lol, I just looked. It’s been 45 days since I last saw accumulating snow. Could be another 7-14 before I see my next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've actually noticed that too but with the operational version on its own over the last year. Like sloshing ... some sort of diurnal beta function ... or maybe diabetic balancing 48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Every so often a model core gets into that 00/12 flip flop cycle. It's usually because of it's handling of one piece of the pattern. The physics are the same, so probably some initialization input? I actually thought it was how it handled convection in the tropics. During strong MJO pulses it almost looked like diurnal cycles had an effect. I can’t prove it, but it sort of made sense in my mind. I’m probably wrong, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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