OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I actually thought it was how it handled convection in the tropics. During strong MJO pulses it almost looked like diurnal cycles had an effect. I can’t prove it, but it sort of made sense in my mind. I’m probably wrong, but who knows. It would take something like that though. It's not something as detailed as a shortwave, because we'd see a more scattershot result run to run. But a diurnal cycle of some sort could result in a 12/00z flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Don't know but GEFS and EPS don't make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Still fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Don't know but GEFS and EPS don't make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Still fugly Improving that’s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s observed according to Chris. I’m sure it’s in the model stats. At the day 5 "wheelhouse" for tracking purposes, it's real, and it's spectacular. I mean it's actually the coldest major model bias. Drunk uncle runs a little hot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't know but GEFS and EPS don't make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Still fugly I don’t see that. Are they epic? Not yet. It certainly far from fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At the day 5 "wheelhouse" for tracking purposes, it's real, and it's spectacular. I mean it's actually the coldest major model bias. Drunk uncle runs a little hot though. Can you tell me please what the FNO and CFSR models are? I don't recognize them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Can you tell me please what the FNO and CFSR models are? I don't recognize them. FNO = NAVGEM CFSR = GFS climate model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I see OSUmetstud beat me to it. I should've read ahead one more page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Working a 1/2 shift tonight to help out one of our mets. Just took a look at things and man do things suck right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I see OSUmetstud beat me to it. I should've read ahead one more page... Its all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Its all good It went a whole page without someone posting it, so I thought I was good to go. Whatever its problems though, it's gotten the green light to take over next year. Like I mentioned, it will be delayed because of the shutdown, but it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t see that. Are they epic? Not yet. It certainly far from fugly. I would have expected a better look based on your posts. High and dry then wet and warm doesn't seem much like you describe but ok we probably sneak a WAA snow or 2, nothing special as far as Jan winter weather it seems. I am not looking for a perfect pattern but rather something sustainable. Dikes will freeze in Denmark though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Working a 1/2 shift tonight to help out one of our mets. Just took a look at things and man do things suck right now. Agree with that assessment. Lipstick on a pig doesn't cut it. Lets hopefully get through the first week of Jan with some better changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would have expected a better look based on your posts. High and dry then wet and warm doesn't seem much like you describe but ok we probably sneak a WAA snow or 2, nothing special as far as Jan winter weather it seems. I am not looking for a perfect pattern but rather something sustainable. Dikes will freeze in Denmark though. I look at a few things. 1. Heights around AK and th Beaufort Sea 2. Heights in the nao region 3. Temperatures (850) in our part of the hemisphere. as a weenie, I look at snow maps. SV maps which tend to be the most conservative have 12+ for most of us during the run. Heights are above normal but there seems to be enough of a PNA and EPO working with nao to keep us in reasonable shape. It’s a huge improvement vs 0z which had low heights on the Pacific side in a place we don’t want them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I've noticed is has a problem with east coast cyclogenesis...just a lot of extreme solutions. So while it may handle the longwave pattern well, it seems "off" when it comes to our own little world of winter wx. Doesnt mean it is useless though. It has scored some coups. More than a model like the GGEM. It's a good reminder to keep basic principles in mind, like a top-down forecast. SLP and QPF can suck everyone in sometimes, but 850-300 are really going to drive things more often than not (yes low level PV generation matters too). I remember that forecasters in IA loved the Ukie for MCS forecasting, because it remained relatively uncontaminated by convection. You could look at the basic ingredients necessary for convection, without the model running away with it. 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dude, please stop with that crap.. place is already unreadable, you don't need to fuel it. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Neuroticism seems to be a specialty around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 A great band TOTO once sang, "Hold the line, pattern change isnt always on time, no no no..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: A great band TOTO once sang, "Hold the line, pattern change isnt always on time, no no no..." I bless the rains down in Attleboro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Jeez, What a thumping I am going to get tomorrow evening. 5-9" of paste? Looks like it will come in like a wall around 8pm. I wish I could share it with all of you, only a few of us on the boards are going to get in on this. Good melt on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Getting some bad breaks is probably the main reason for the melts. Honestly, look at a year like 2004-2005...we had pretty much a really meh to occasionally dogsh** pattern for December and early January but yet we scored events during brief windows of favorability and even during the sh** pattern in early January 2005 we scored two events. It's always about the snow for most of the winter wx lovers and not about patterns or temps. No individual threat in the past month you would expect to work out but collectively you would expect a couple to hit. This was not a December 2006/2011/2015 pattern by any stretch. Exactly. We have multiple page digressions on stories/photos/references to '78, PD2, or James' favorite Juno. Multiple pages of H5 of yore? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I expect we'll see multiple KU events from late Jan through mid March. At least one widespread 20"+ event possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez, What a thumping I am going to get tomorrow evening. 5-9" of paste? Looks like it will come in like a wall around 8pm. I wish I could share it with all of you, only a few of us on the boards are going to get in on this. Good melt on Tuesday. ? Think that is NE of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I expect we'll see multiple KU events from late Jan through mid March. At least one widespread 20"+ event possible. You are looking for a coastal bomb. Which I hope this pattern delivers when more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: I look at a few things. 1. Heights around AK and th Beaufort Sea 2. Heights in the nao region 3. Temperatures (850) in our part of the hemisphere. as a weenie, I look at snow maps. SV maps which tend to be the most conservative have 12+ for most of us during the run. Heights are above normal but there seems to be enough of a PNA and EPO working with nao to keep us in reasonable shape. It’s a huge improvement vs 0z which had low heights on the Pacific side in a place we don’t want them. Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, Hoth said: I bless the rains down in Attleboro. Ha. I bless the rains down in Attleboro, gonna kill some time on Rays Winter Storm Archive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now. Not too bad of a pattern. Better than we've had. Bit of a split flow look out west and some minor PNA ridging with good low height anomalies near aleutians. Would prefer that to be a bit further SW but it's serviceable. Split flow will sometimes cause the higher heights in Canada around Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 There's always this 90s hit from Prodigy Sh**tty patter. Go check the models I'll test yah EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM Sh**tty patter. Go check the models I'll test yah EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM Go. check. the. models If you believe past 8 days, if u believe past 8 days your the victim Go check the models EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Think that is NE of you? Steve, I don't know. Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts. Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark. Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip? Elevation may help me. I don't know? GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range. I'm at the yellow dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not too bad of a pattern. Better than we've had. Bit of a split flow look out west and some minor PNA ridging with good low height anomalies near aleutians. Would prefer that to be a bit further SW but it's serviceable. Split flow will sometimes cause the higher heights in Canada around Hudson Bay. Thank you! I knew I wasn’t nuts (well about this at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Thank you! I knew I wasn’t nuts (well about this at least). I mean, I agree with those saying it's nothing special but I didn't find it particularly hostile like we saw in the past two weeks outside of 12/23-12/25. Close to climo temps with some signs of split flow isn't the worst thing in early/mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts