weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When the mean barely has the 540 line overhead with SW flow in the heart of January, it’s usually not good. This is a good point and something else I should pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: who mentioned you? I did. He was having a mini-melt in my judgement. It started in the clipper thread. Snapping a bit in his frustration. Jerry tried talking him back. He brought himself back with help from others. Love guys mean it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Those huge hadley cells continue to be an issue of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I did. He was having a mini-melt in my judgement. It started in the clipper thread. Snapping a bit in his frustration. Jerry tried talking him back. He brought himself back with help from others. Love guys mean it. I honestly have no clue what you mean LOL. I know people don’t want to hear it but I literally don’t know what to do. I certainly would rather be in your shoes next week. Hopefully it can come a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s dumb. No one is moving on. But we can admit things are falling apart. All I know is when you post about Maine in early January instead of your annual Morch posting bonanza about how much snow Sugarloaf has been getting.. things aren’t going well in SNE LOl well I have experienced lots of winters and Jan 3rd cancelling winter is cool and all. The meltdowns over what appears to be a pattern that could offer multiple chances at plowable snow are great. IDK but I post about all of New England as I like our fellow posters, happy they can cash in. I post winter round about all areas . IDK what your obsession with me posting about other areas is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly have no clue what you mean LOL. I know people don’t want to hear it but I literally don’t know what to do. I certainly would rather be in your shoes next week. Hopefully it can come a little south. Apparently you need to outright lie about what the EPS is doing or you are accused of "melting." Notice hardly any posts of the EPS in this thread, many posts of the "great" 6z GEFS. The pattern "change" keeps getting pushed back, the storm next Tuesday is a cutter with some CAD out ahead of it. I don't expect the high to "lock" and to me any real snows look confined to the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly have no clue what you mean LOL. I know people don’t want to hear it but I literally don’t know what to do. I certainly would rather be in your shoes next week. Hopefully it can come a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: This is a good point and something else I should pay attention to. Get us the low level cold and will will snow plenty at 540 with a SW wind. I am a day by day person, lots of people here live in the future and worry about run to run changes, live and die each day by modeling. I think Ray has this nailed, time will tell. Just look at where all the cold is in Canada. That molasses will leak down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Here’s something to remember: I believe that on 1/15/15 BOS had a running total of under 5 inches and we were discussing futility. Keep some hope alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I did. He was having a mini-melt in my judgement. It started in the clipper thread. Snapping a bit in his frustration. Jerry tried talking him back. He brought himself back with help from others. Love guys mean it. Oh I missed that. I can't wait to see the melts tonight when the weeklies come out (based off last nights 0Z run) when they are cold they are wrong but when they are warm they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Here’s something to remember: I believe that on 1/15/15 BOS had a running total of under 5 inches and we were discussing futility. Keep some hope alive. I wonder what their total was on 1/15/13. Couldn't have been any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Here’s something to remember: I believe that on 1/15/15 BOS had a running total of under 5 inches and we were discussing futility. Keep some hope alive. It's like a broken record Jerry, look back at monthlies for some years, days of 40s and 50s and rain then boom . The EPS pattern to me does show significant changes are afoot. Time will tell but like prior years, nickle and dimes, ain't happening, no way, EPS said this GEFS that posts, are great to bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Get us the low level cold and will will snow plenty at 540 with a SW wind. I am a day by day person, lots of people here live in the future and worry about run to run changes, live and die each day by modeling. I think Ray has this nailed, time will tell. Just look at where all the cold is in Canada. That molasses will leak down Only if we can buckle the fast PAC puke flow. Zonal shit is not gonna cut it for us in the southern areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Get us the low level cold and will will snow plenty at 540 with a SW wind. I am a day by day person, lots of people here live in the future and worry about run to run changes, live and die each day by modeling. I think Ray has this nailed, time will tell. Just look at where all the cold is in Canada. That molasses will leak down Well I doubt it will continue to be this bad going forward even if the pattern is just meh. So I guess it comes down to expectations. Are we hoping to be near average the rest of the way or are we trying to make up for what we lost over what will be a 6 week period? I know Ray has spelled out what he expects so I'm not going to lure him into spelling his thoughts out again, but I wonder what will make the rest of this forum happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Well I doubt it will continue to be this bad going forward even if the pattern is just meh. So I guess it comes down to expectations. Are we hoping to be near average the rest of the way or are we trying to make up for what we lost over what will be a 6 week period? I know Ray has spelled out what he expects so I'm not going to lure him into spelling his thoughts out again, but I wonder what will make the rest of this forum happy. Yea, beating a dead horse...we'll just see what happens from here on out. I'll give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 It today’s climate, we live in extremes. When the pattern breaks favorably, you’ll be crying to your grandmas for an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Everyone should stop forecasting long range if this winter turns out to be a dud. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Well I doubt it will continue to be this bad going forward even if the pattern is just meh. So I guess it comes down to expectations. Are we hoping to be near average the rest of the way or are we trying to make up for what we lost over what will be a 6 week period? I know Ray has spelled out what he expects so I'm not going to lure him into spelling his thoughts out again, but I wonder what will make the rest of this forum happy. I think people are getting mixed up. While the next two weeks may not be great...I’m still hopeful we flip in Feb and Mar. But, I think it would be wise to hold off 2015 expectations. Let’s face it, that was rare. 2013 is more attainable, but even that can be hard to come by. We certainly can go on a run, especially since these ninos tend to do that, but let’s be reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Everyone should stop forecasting long range if this winter turns out to be a dud. Everyone needs to stay off of weenie twitter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wonder what their total was on 1/15/13. Couldn't have been any better. 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone should stop forecasting long range if this winter turns out to be a dud. No way...we are still at the very frontier of the long range outlooks. That is going to happen, man....do you realize how small of a data pool we have in the grand scheme of things? If this season ever did dud, it would prove to be an invaluable learning tool as we move forward. Failure is a synonym for opportunity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 3.4 Yeah. Sounds right. I think they finished with around 66 inches. Obviously we will need a higher end storm or two to repeat. Unless we just get a ton of regular warning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think people are getting mixed up. While the next two weeks may not be great...I’m still hopeful we flip in Feb and Mar. But, I think it would be wise to hold off 2015 expectations. Let’s face it, that was rare. 2013 is more attainable, but even that can be hard to come by. We certainly can go on a run, especially since these ninos tend to do that, but let’s be reasonable. Absolutely correct and believe me I never said you melted but you are sublimating lol, just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 anyway... hey, it snowed a few gossamer flakes this morning... Phew, ... that was close! Just dodged futility huh? I think that D5-6 event has some merit as ... heh, actually existing. That's been one thing that no one's really even noticed ...that I'm aware, is that the models have a lot of feature-failure going on during the span of this total ass violation pattern. I'd like to see any system at all at this point, one that could possibly be winter profiled, actually take place. In a Universe theoretically constructed entirely from bits of quantum uncertainty principles ... it seems to be violating the uncertain aspect of that. It's not suppose to be this certainly horrible. No comment on what that existence will entail, except: The first being ... the EPS' racing the high seaward can't happen or despite whatever initial conditions there are in the lower troposphere ...they will reverse and rain... That said, the mean is still committing reasonably well for 144 hours, to a secondary PP SE of CC. ...that's, "pressure pattern southeast of cape code" That means among other governing factors, there is some boundary layer cold resistance/viscosity going on... Yup, it could be 34 light rain density, sure... Secondly ...Despite all that the individual GEF members (about half to two thirds strong) indicating a more robustly stalled anticyclone over eastern Ontario. The variance at mid lvls(500 mb) is actually pretty tame for a 120 to 170 hours in general. And indeed, the pretty graphical blended synoptic evolution shows that high remaining anchored. If that were true, it's surface evolution is DEFINITELY too far N with the frontal position - not arguable. FACT, one that I've proven a hundred times with a hundred successes. It's physically impossible for the model to know precisely where the surface frontal slope is given present day technology and Ekman mechanics.. but that's an eye-glosser. I don't know what the specific model biases are regarding that specific handling with surface pressure over eastern Ontario ...beyond the autopilot assumption that the EPS is better so we can't consider any other scenario... But, in that situation next week, more or less high pressure exertion in the lower troposphere appears to onus much of the system complexion. The other aspect is that the overall heights are still not hugely supporting trough amplitude like the operational Euro..It did back off slightly compared to previous, but still is on the potent side. The heights over the deep south and se are anomalously rich prior to this thing being ejected east ... the flow exhibiting higher velocities.. That presence a canvas neggie sort of interference pattern so I could see a "slight" amp bias of the Euro needing a spatula there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. Sounds right. I think they finished with around 66 inches. Obviously we will need a higher end storm or two to repeat. Unless we just get a ton of regular warning events. March is the new winter month. Kevin hates it because he is in spring mode. I like it , they plow we have safe streets with a beautiful environment with bright sun off a snowy landscape. Skiers love it too. Man that Euro run smokes NNE good, nice 1 run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers. Yes, the 8" of snow I've had in the past month is soooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeettttttttttt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone should stop forecasting long range if this winter turns out to be a dud. And you should stop telling us to watch every low pressure system on the continent. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And you should stop telling us to watch every low pressure system on the continent. God do we all agree there. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 If the season is a dud, that’s a lesson learned low heights in the AK are stubborn and not easily removed. That was always a big red flag for us when it began to show up in late Novie....but I trust all the work seasonal guys put in, so we expect it to change. You can have a strat event with cool videos on twitter and get all warm and fuzzy in your private area, that the vortex is being disturbed....but if the pac sucks, our winter sucks. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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