dryslot Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Ant is in line at the ticket booth to get on the melt train.................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Wait, I thought the 12z GFS looked good for Tuesday...does it fall apart in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Gotta love referring to the evolution of winter in the past tense 3 days into January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Classic melt, awesome. Winter is about to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Ant is in line at the ticket booth to get on the melt train.................... Lol...he's already on it..burnt to a Crisp already!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Wait, I thought the 12z GFS looked good for Tuesday...does it fall apart in the LR? Well metfan lives in NYC. It sucks for there on Tuesday. We do okay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: We've been talking about the MJO as a "constructive" or "destructive" interference on the planetary atmospheric system for years now... I'm assuming we're just making conversation at this point. In any case, personally I'm hypothesizing that the Euro's low amplitude resolution heading deeper into phase 7 may have something to do with just that... The eastern transition to the western hemisphere doesn't really support that wave space ... at least through week 1/10 days... After that, we'll see if that phase 8 sticks. One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Euro MJO does have more "stability" in its outlooks. It seems to maintain continuity better but I haven't dug around for any specific verification/comparisons in the matter either. Also, just so's folks might approach an understanding .. positive and negative interference is not absolute. Saying either does not preclude anything. If the Pacific wants to be in a AA phase, and the Indian Ocean farts out a wave, it may initially be suppressed some ... impetus on some. And vice versa of course. As Scott or whomever that was mentioned, ...it adds momentum, or ...robs it away... wave interference is offset. Sometimes when the wave seems to crash inward into that inner detection boundary region it's really just the surrounding medium doing a proficient dampening. Jan Feb 15 were in the circle of death, I don't understand snow gooses post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Everyone hanging on to what happened in 2015 as hope. Imagine if 2015 didn't happen. The melts would be epic if not for the hope of a 2015 like flip to snow. GFS for next Tuesday looks like a decent thump of snow followed by drizzle. Really need the high to the north to remain stout to prevent the primary from gaining too much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol...he's already on it..burnt to a Crisp already!!!! He's cooked for a while, No pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Well metfan lives in NYC. It sucks for there on Tuesday. We do okay. Gotchya. I'll take any accumulating early next week to break the ice...spirits will lift substantially if we get a few to several, followed by a better looking LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Gotchya. I'll take any accumulating early next week to break the ice...spirits will lift substantially if we get a few to several, followed by a better looking LR. That’s my man! You were dripping on the verge of a full fledged melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Gotchya. I'll take any accumulating early next week to break the ice...spirits will lift substantially if we get a few to several, followed by a better looking LR. And a change to rain and 39 while interior stays near 32 wouldn’t be good to watch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Everyone hanging on to what happened in 2015 as hope. Imagine if 2015 didn't happen. The melts would be epic if not for the hope of a 2015 like flip to snow. GFS for next Tuesday looks like a decent thump of snow followed by drizzle. Really need the high to the north to remain stout to prevent the primary from gaining too much latitude. 2015 is the most recent example but there's a pretty long history of weak/moderate El Niño's with big time second halves. Obviously '15 is the extreme scenario but using Boston as a reference, 2003 also had over 50" after 1/20, so did 1969, 1978, and 2005. That's a big number for BOS and they all happened in weak or mod El Niño's. Even most of the weak/mod Ninos that failed to have monster second halves had drastic pattern changes for the better but they just weren't able to produce big snow with them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: And a change to rain and 39 while interior stays near 32 wouldn’t be good to watch . He’s not raining at his latitude. He’ll potentially do a lot better vs BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s not raining at his latitude. He’ll potentially do a lot better vs BOS. Isn’t he on cape ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well FWIW, the GEFS made impressive changes on the good side in the PNA region through AK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Isn’t he on cape ann Yes. And in a mainly latitude dependent eve he should do better than the pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s not raining at his latitude. He’ll potentially do a lot better vs BOS. He will if Euro / EPS is right from last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He will if Euro / EPS is right from last nite They’ll adjust as do all models inside 5 days imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes. And in a mainly latitude dependent eve he should do better than the pike region. I just want frozen . Could be frozen meatballs falling for all I care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well FWIW, the GEFS made impressive changes on the good side in the PNA region through AK. Cave cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Cave cancel? Given the ying and yang history with GEFS..doesn't mean a whole lot with one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Given the ying and yang history with GEFS..doesn't mean a whole lot with one run. Well I’m going to point out the cave was one run and this reverts back to what GEFS was selling the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I don’t trust any modeling anymore. They couldn’t even fooking get last nights non event right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t trust any modeling anymore. They couldn’t even fooking get last nights non event right I thought the guidance was on for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t trust any modeling anymore. They couldn’t even fooking get last nights non event right ? They nailed it, take the goggles off. No one expected anything south of Rt 2, one run 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 In Ginxy’s scrolls there is a tale w name recipe for Pattern flip; Thee sacrifice a weenie from the D.C area every day at dusk and 2 on Sundays till thy snow level breaches thy knickers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t trust any modeling anymore. They couldn’t even fooking get last nights non event right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 This just popped up on facebook... https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought the guidance was on for that event. They had 1-2” down to almost the s Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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