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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Good lord. 18z GEFS mean looks to be CLOSE to 20” from Charlotte to about Burlington

Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.

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Just now, Cornsnow said:

Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.

Usually, it's the opposite. The storm is OTS until it's sampled and then it comes back. We'll surely see an adjustment in track, with concomitant adjustment in p-type boundaries. I don't think it'll go away outright.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

Usually, it's the opposite. The storm is OTS until it's sampled and then it comes back. We'll surely see an adjustment in track, with concomitant adjustment in p-type boundaries. I don't think it'll go away outright.

You are correct, I do not seeing going away but these totals are crazy.

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1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Good to hear I'm really pulling for at least 12+ I could care less about those 15-25 totals just want a foot that would be amazing for around here.

I could see us getting 8-16 I know that's I big spread but I'm waiting on the nam before I fine tune that. If we can stay all snow longer we could get two feet. The problem is warm air aloft we almost always get a little sleep mixed in that can really cut totals down but for right now we got second row seats to this one mtns got front row but hey I ain't complaining it's the first week of December lol

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7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

I'm the weather guy at my school, granted not a good one, mainly the guy that tries to regurgitate all the information I read on here.  Granted I am also the one that loves snow and I have seen the term giddy several times on here and I'm that times freaking 20.  BUTTTTTT, dadgumit there's always a but - is it really possible for this to happen without WAA and everything Pack said? Who knows? Being the optimist, no one thought david could win either.  #BeatGoliath #LetItFreakingSnow

I'm assuming a youth in HS. Fantastic to see youth interested in weather. Keep up the great work, and hopefully others at your school are interested. One of my fondest memories from HS 78-81 was a young boy with special needs that memorized the weather every day. There are lots of excellent weather sources here...follow your dreams. Hope you make a LOT of people happy this weekend!

sorry for the banter, just wanted to encourage a student!

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Just now, SimeonNC said:

Idk how true this tweet is but it should put to rest all of the sampling talk if it is.

  

 

And yet we've seen it happen even within recent years. Can the satellites do as good a job as soundings?

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2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

I'm assuming a youth in HS. Fantastic to see youth interested in weather. Keep up the great work, and hopefully others at your school are interested. One of my fondest memories from HS 78-81 was a young boy with special needs that memorized the weather every day. There are lots of excellent weather sources here...follow your dreams. Hope you make a LOT of people happy this weekend!

sorry for the banter, just wanted to encourage a student!

Tony, though I act like a kid many times - I wish I still were - I'm a gradually wilting away adult that holds on to snow models that makes him feel young again!  HAHA!

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This system has the opportunity to be the biggest storm this decade for many in western and possibly central NC.

While ratios will likely be under 10:1, the warm nose intrusion still worries me. It will be a few days before we are able to assess the extent of the warm nose and how it affects the estimated snow totals. Most of the time, you can count on the rain/snow line setting up around I-85, but it is impossible to discern where that will happen at the moment.

For me, it reminds me of the December 2009 storm, which had a very sharp gradient between rain and snow/sleet. I am keeping it conservative right now on the forecast, but areas in red has the best chance. Confidence decreases as I move into the piedmont. I think areas in yellow will also have a very good storm, it just depends on the warm nose and sleet mixing in.

DtskGLfWoAEJibe.jpg

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OK, It is finally time to actually start a storm thread. From this point on please stay on topic as much as possible. There is a banter thread in which to fun post and a sanitarium thread if you need to vent.

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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

And yet we've seen it happen even within recent years. Can the satellites do as good a job as soundings

I would think you'd need data to make a claim one way or the other. Just because big model adjustments happen, doesn't mean you know why.

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54 minutes ago, +nao said:

How many winter storms have we had in the southern piedmont in the first half of December that are even close to what the models are predicting? For that matter how many winter storms in NC have been as big as what is being advertised?

For early December snowfalls in Charlotte that were 10" or greater, you have to go back to December 2, 1896 when the city received 10" of snow.  Monroe, NC received 12" of snow and 16" of snow fell in Chester, SC from that same snowstorm.  I believe one of the largest December snowfalls in North Carolina occurred in early December 1886 when over two feet of snow fell around Asheville.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

Go on........

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Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather  boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

Get your ass back in NC! :D    Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  

 

Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

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Just now, Wow said:

Get your ass back in NC! :D    Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  

 

Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

I miss FoothillsNC. :( 

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12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather  boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

I remember being on wright weather as well. This has the potential to be historic for sure. I have never seen this many model runs with this much snow, never !

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6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

I have to agree with you...... As we all can plainly see, a large part of this forum is going to be affected by this one. From over 50 years of watching the NC winter storms, I can tell you from past events that I-85 is the line of demarcation between mostly snow and mix a lot of the time. However, this is not always the case and with today's trends, I would not sleep on this one if I was in the upstate. I am not really focused on track as much as I am precip amounts. If I was in that freezing rain band, I would be really concerned. (Watch out NEGA) As GSP stated in their AFD. "once in a generation"

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Get your ass back in NC!     Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  
 
Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

Big Rob had a good video on the storm tonight!! He’s going BIG!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation.

As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities.

Rain1209-112018-SE.jpg

Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase.

Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs. 

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9 minutes ago, Poimen said:

(5 Dec 2018): Due to dataflow issues from NCEP, data may be delayed for some American models (NAM, GFS, etc.) this evenin

How does this never happen in middle of july when its 90/70 everyday. I mean its popcorn time for this set of 0zs.  What is dataflow issues. Probably some preventive maintenace an I.T. guy who lives in the MA decided to carry out

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Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  

A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.

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10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

How does this never happen in middle of july when its 90/70 everyday. I mean its popcorn time for this set of 0zs.  What is dataflow issues. Probably some preventive maintenace an I.T. guy who lives in the MA decided to carry out

It does happen, we just don't care. I've seen it before.

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation.

As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities.

Rain1209-112018-SE.jpg

Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase.

Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs. 

The Don has spoken.  Thank you, Don.

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Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  
A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.



Not saying you’re wrong, but at this point in time, it’s hard to go against the current trends. Of course that could change for better or worst. What burger said pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as this storm goes.


.

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