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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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8 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Alright who's going to get dry-slotted?

Was just about to post on this.  In the what could go wrong category, you can see the dry slot moving from MS into Bama here as the system gets wound up.  NW NC and into SW VA is the place to be in this simulation for precip duration.  The stronger and more wound up the system is, the more dry slotting comes into play.  Of course, there is explosive precip out ahead of that.

ZMVkn4t.gif

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11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map?  We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either.  Rates will easily overcome current conditions.  (Crystal clear tonight in the triad.  Cold already!)

You could try the following (0-10cm layer): http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

The ICON, which has no knowledge of CAD, has trended back south.  Gives the mtns a real shellacking. 

I was reviewing it after my first post and it has a very odd surface depiction wrt qpf. Big dry slot in SC and up into the CLT area, right when the low is taking off the coast of SC.

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

This is pretty crazy......925mb winds of 50 to 55 knot winds across damming regions of ga/sc by sunday 12z. 40 knot winds at 950mb. Some serious wedging lol

 

 

925wh.us_se.png

at hr84 the wedge is in full effect here and Nega..dew points remain in mid 20's with almost an inch of liquid. I'm very optimistic that this will be a great event for NW SC and parts of Nega despite what any clown maps have shown and will continue to show. Ive learned one thing over the years on here and that's to look at specifics instead of clown maps...although theyre fun or depressing to look at. Looking forward to your input in the next 3 days!

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20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map?  We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either.  Rates will easily overcome current conditions.  (Crystal clear tonight in the triad.  Cold already!)

 

05F0B485-A0AE-4B1D-87C7-94F7695AE042.png

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Just now, oconeexman said:

at hr84 the wedge is in full effect here and Nega..dew points remain in mid 20's with almost an inch of liquid. I'm very optimistic that this will be a great event for NW SC and parts of Nega despite what any clown maps have shown and will continue to show. Ive learned one thing over the years on here and that's to look at specifics instead of clown maps...although theyre fun or depressing to look at. Looking forward to your input in the next 3 days!

The 0z nam is a little slower than the 18z run in dropping temps but it happens very quick when it does. Interestingly the nam is showing the core of the cold air at 950mb instead of 925mb this run.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it speed up by a number of hours again since i suspect the nam, nor any model, will be able to accurately get down the quick cool down over the western carolinas where the whole atmosphere is quite a bit colder/drier. Also, nam is showing quite a bit of mid level cooling and given the cold low levels i suspect there could be quite a bit of sleet over northeast ga....especially considering precip rates. But watch levels between 850mb and 700mb...warm nose there could screw the upstate's snow for a little while. Nam, not surprising is more bullish with it than the gfs. 

 

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