DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Dendrite is going to pull off 15'' of mid-level magic pixie dust out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 947 "warm core" storm, lol. I don't even think those pressures are possible in September at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Like I said yesterday...western new england...do not let your guard down. Yes..deformation pretty far west. Some never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Not as impressive as the early descriptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. That would probably be PWM-PSM-BED this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, MarkO said: 947 "warm core" storm, lol. I don't even think those pressures are possible in September at that latitude. I think the Jan 1978 OV blizzard got close, low 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 60 Man just think about if that "L" was just off the Cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. I didn't see anyone mention qpf? Upper level features were west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Mid levels are really pretty. That QPF output is going to fail miserably as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. I could be wrong, but HFD-CEF on west will do better than 2". Just my two pennies. Probably you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z EURO QPF for Queens... This is pretty much what my thought has been for about 4 days, this map, lol. Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z Euro says it’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd be cautious on this euro run. That looks like a TC/hybrid on the euro at hr 48. That could be screwing with the whole synoptic wave development/phase interaction on the evolution of this... I dunno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. The "whole region" does not really mean the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: That would probably be PWM-PSM-BED this run. Yeah that very well could be right. It often finds itself to the location of the lower end of the sharp QPF gradient for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 And yeah...pretty nice warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro drapes the CF down along the Plymouth/Bristol County lines. Hasn't budged from that area in a couple days now. Anyone off the Canal is likely all frozen in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 How can everything be so far west in the first 48 hours and then suddenly I think the jetting east north east south of Nova Scotia? What makes that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro has .2 qpf for central CT..I would have thought a bit more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 In my rough H7 graphics, I would say a nice band potential exists from TOL-ORH-GAY on northeast despite QPF. But since this is moving fast, residence time won't be terribly long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Yeah ground truth not was I thought. I was thinking the center was gonna come in at 40/69 or something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be. Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient. In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite. Given the upper levels early on, I'd expect the QPF queens to be pretty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I didn't see anyone mention qpf? Upper level features were west. There’s only one person here who keeps posting qpf maps. That look screams bands to Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Moved well west, but still has work to do for those west of PVD-BOS corridor. Surface should catch up in subsequent runs, and I dont think its westward move is finished.. I think the Mesos win out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: I'd be cautious on this euro run. That looks like a TC/hybrid on the euro at hr 48. That could be screwing with the whole synoptic wave development/phase interaction on the evolution of this... I dunno... It sure was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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