powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The Queens saying is a joke. I mentioned the occlusion process, but it also may not be handling things well and shunt it east too quickly. It's a highly anomalous storm and may not be handled well. I see everyone mentioning the possibilities, but I would highly advise the HFD CT valley people to keep an eye out on higher totals. I think we are aligned pretty well. On that EURO run I still think it would be snowier than shown from say CT Valley to ORH up to the Lakes Region. Like HubbDave area up to Winni especially. But hey maybe the NAM is right and it's Warning snows back way up here. But as discussed last night, it would be nice to get some A-team players in that realm to start thinking it. ARW/NAM/RPM team isn't what you are looking for and we still didn't see a big global shift. Even the GGEM has been taming it down on its super amped runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Once it occluded don't you start to lose the good conveyor belts? It always seems to get more shredded and banded too. So you come away with more of the "winner and losers" type strength rather than a strong conveyor belt system where everyone sees similar totals. Not every occlusion results in a warm seclusion. The best dynamics shift toward the triple point and new lows redevelop while the primary rots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thanks guys. I just enjoy a good discussion of all aspects of a storm, even the flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: As expected, EPS is wetter than the OP. Want to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: As expected, EPS is wetter than the OP. How are they with respect to low placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Not every occlusion results in a warm seclusion. The best dynamics shift toward the triple point and new lows redevelop while the primary rots. Sometimes you develop a good TROWAL right ahead of that occluded front. That will be a nice isentropic upglide, march 2013 style. In this case, it's just massive WAA..even with the seclusion. You can see good isentropic lift on the 300K surface on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: How are they with respect to low placement? Still waiting for it to come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think we are aligned pretty well. On that EURO run I still think it would be snowier than shown from say CT Valley to ORH up to the Lakes Region. Like HubbDave area up to Winni. The arc that is like needles stabbing my eyes. I'll be struggling for 3" while watching a webcam near Pit2 showing whiteout conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wait? Widespread 20"+ isn't most probable right now? Nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 hr 42, big shift nw on eps mean, looks to be a cluster of lp's west of the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hey guys...no maps from pay sites aside from weather.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: hr 42, big shift nw on eps mean, looks to be a cluster of lp's west of the mean... I'm not sure I'd go big shift... but there was a shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm not sure I'd go big shift... but there was a shift west. A hundred miles or so? I mean it was sizable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 57 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The changes on the OP 12z EURO aloft were absurd for this time frame. The 250mb jet is misplaced like 500 miles. I'm feeling majorly confident E NE is going to see an all-timer honestly. This is going to keep improving I have no doubt. I wish I could afford a road trip right now, anyone want to let me stay with them for a few days? lol If you help with Sledding Trails than yes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If looking at purely the mean it doesn't look like as much of a jump NW. I was looking at individual members, seems to be far more west of the mean's center than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: If looking at purely the mean it doesn't look like as much of a jump NW. I was looking at LP's, seems to be far more west of the mean's center than before. This is when it's off Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol that. He’s half empty he Lol Blizz I See 5-10 from HFD to MHT and east to ORH and you as a good Starting point. I said i see best shot for a foot in E Ma.Inside 495 and high winds, esp for cape cod. So blizzard conditions seem likely to me for E Ma. That IS Still consistent w concerns that mid levels bomb well S.W and we dont get What we could've Especially outside of 495. (I.E wide spread totalsOf 10-15") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A hundred miles or so? I mean it was sizable A few hours ago the WC said even a shift west of 50 miles would bring heavier snow to inland areas and blizzard conditions on the coastal plain in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thanks JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: A few hours ago the WC said even a shift west of 50 miles would bring heavier snow to inland areas and blizzard conditions on the coastal plain in the NE. Wish I could post the ensembles but I can't. There's definitely a bunch of them W or SW of the mean. Not nearly as many east of mean as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At 54 hours, the EPS mean SLP looks east of the op to me. OP - 39.5 N, 68.7W EPS - 40.2 N, 67.5 W About 6 members west of Nantucket and a good cluster west of the mean, but the mean does look east of op to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol Blizz I See 5-10 from HFD to MHT and east to ORH and you as a good Starting point. I said i see best shot for a foot in E Ma.Inside 495 and high winds, esp for cape cod. So blizzard conditions seem likely to me for E Ma. That IS Still consistent w concerns that mid levels bomb well S.W and we dont get What we could've Especially outside of 495. (I.E wide spread totalsOf 10-15") I am concerned that there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Its not like this is spinning up in a moint environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 so what models have done best with shapiro keyser cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The GEFS and EPS are almost identical with storm impact back this way. Even for eastern CT the GEFS and EPS have only a handful of members producing >1" of liquid. It's all going to come down to whether the non-hydrostatic/convection allowing models will do a better job than the global models with storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks JC. Missed the post where you asked him to post them. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Getting back to what Will said, I definitely would not set expectations of the Jan 15 event. This is not anywhere near the slow movement that had. This will be a nice hit in many areas..but just a bit too progressive for a massive blockbuster like Jan 15 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Missed the post where you asked him to post them. lol Yeah, I knew I would delete it but I got side-tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Goal posts narrowing. I expect some small moves between now and 12z tomorrow, but as an EARLY ROUGH estimate, I'd pin numbers for SNE as: 8-14" ASH-ORH-GON and east (including BOS, PVD, PLY)* 4-8" ORE-HFD-HVN and east 2-4" ORE-HFD-HVN and west 2-6" Cape and MVY 1-4" ACK *Blizzard conditions possible along the immediate coast of E MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 When does new Nam come out?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: When does new Nam come out? . 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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