dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 idk...you can see the midlevel occluded front coming from the 850 low and the triple point to the northeast. Looks like a potent warm seclusion to me that we don;t normally see here like they do in the N Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. Ya , BIG time The qpf looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Will end up slamming into southern New England. This will go farther west than most think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Queens gonna queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya , BIG time The qpf looks meh Because no one was looking at qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: H7 temps are near -16 even to the Berks, so that will help. Some lift is shown there. The euro did some weird stuff as Will and the Pope explained. Almost looked like a hurricane when looking at H5. I'm just going by some instincts here and model bias. I think HFD-CEF and probably a bit west are going to get some good snows. Yeah I think our thoughts aren't all that different... its often just how we phrase it. I'm not expecting western New England to smoke cirrus like some seem to be implying...but I'm also not entirely buying the "set-up argues for heavy snows into NY State" type posts. Maybe that ends up correct but some of the higher end statements seem more like clicking heels together and saying it three times. I think western New England is certainly in the game for 3-6" type snowfall. But the focus should be from ORH east... that's where the high impact stuff will be with wind and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Queens gonna queen. Drives folks nuts. Just don’t understand their way of thinking . Like it matters one iota what a qpf chart shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I think our thoughts aren't all that different... its often just how we phrase it. I'm not expecting western New England to smoke cirrus like some seem to be implying...but I'm also not entirely buying the "set-up argues for heavy snows into NY State" type posts. Maybe that ends up correct but some of the higher end statements seem more like clicking heels together and saying it three times. I think western New England is certainly in the game for 3-6" type snowfall. But the focus should be from ORH east... that's where the high impact stuff will be with wind and snow. I agree with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Will end up slamming into southern New England. This will go farther west than most think. I could see it go pretty far west, but it originates so far east it'll be hard to come all the way to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm definitely back onboard... qpf be damned. I might be just far enough east to get a decent event. I will miss out on horrendous winds though. Fast moving sucker on the Euro (and every other model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The only reason I could see the euro doing what it did, is because it matured rapidly east of HSE. It may cause it to go occluded and give it that jog east. The early stages looked like a classic track towards the latent heat release, and then after it sort of drifted more towards the baroclinic side of things. Both things are at play with such an anomalous setup. And this is highly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wxblue is from the south.....he can fine tune the tropical aspects.In the tropics we refer to the gfs as good for sh*t..gfs has an easterly bias as we saw almost the entire season including irma as it kept wanting to ride offshore east of the penninsula so beware and tends to intensify far to quickly..ride the euro and nam is ok for steering inside of 36h...good luck, hope you guys do wellSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I think our thoughts aren't all that different... its often just how we phrase it. I'm not expecting western New England to smoke cirrus like some seem to be implying...but I'm also not entirely buying the "set-up argues for heavy snows into NY State" type posts. Maybe that ends up correct but some of the higher end statements seem more like clicking heels together and saying it three times. I think western New England is certainly in the game for 3-6" type snowfall. But the focus should be from ORH east... that's where the high impact stuff will be with wind and snow. It could easily be like Jan '15 though probably tone down the amounts across the board...the CT River area and western SNE only got like a general 5-10" in that one...maybe a few isolated higher amounts...but there was def a pretty sharp cutoff from the big stuff once you got west of the ORH hills and NE CT near Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I just think it's funny that the weeniesm has moved from QPF to H5. Back in the day nuke meant huge QPF and pretty clown maps but now people are weenieing out over midlevel features more. A weenie renaissance. Good storm coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Queens gonna queen. Wait a minute. thats maybe .3 to CON after a descripition of the run that would indicate it was coming way west. Thats not weenies being weenies. Something weird about this whole system/setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DomNH said: I just think it's funny that the weeniesm has moved from QPF to H5. Back in the day nuke meant huge QPF and pretty clown maps but now people are weenieing out over midlevel features more. A weenie renaissance. Good storm coming folks. That's a good thing....model QPF is def useful, but there's a risk of over-reliance, esp more than 36-48 hours out. Good to see people looking at the dprog/Dt in terms of upper air at this stage. I'd prob weight QPF a lot more heavily once inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...you can see the midlevel occluded front coming from the 850 low and the triple point to the northeast. Looks like a potent warm seclusion to me that we don;t normally see here like they do in the N Atlantic. If it occludes it will be drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: In the tropics we refer to the gfs as good for sh*t I think that's common among all languages. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 300 mb jet on Euro looks sick for rapid intensification. Nice venting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Given the upper levels early owith'd expect the QPF queens to be p retty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east... Mid levels bomb much earlier, so isnt that sort of consistent With opening up of system later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: I just think it's funny that the weeniesm has moved from QPF to H5. Back in the day nuke meant huge QPF and pretty clown maps but now people are weenieing out over midlevel features more. A weenie renaissance. Good storm coming folks. Oh there's a couple posters who would be putting up every snow map they see from Twitter if those plots were showing what they want to see...but for now they'll discuss mid-levels and keep waiting for that EURO run to show widespread 1"+ moisture. You watch, the minute one of the major globals goes bonkers there will be plenty of maps thrown around. People like ORH/Coastal/Tip and other mets have always discussed the mid level stuff a lot...and yes the QPF is pretty useless but it gives a very quick look at what the model is thinking. There are also set-ups when it shows widespread 1-2" QPF and the mid-levels don't line up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a good thing....model QPF is def useful, but there's a risk of over-reliance, esp more than 36-48 hours out. Good to see people looking at the dprog/Dt in terms of upper air at this stage. I'd prob weight QPF a lot more heavily once inside of 24 hours. Any guesstimates for ORH and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, DomNH said: That being said, the PBP in this thread made it sound like the Euro was 1.5''+ of QPF for the whole region. exactly, wow what a let down unless the next 3 model cycles move as far west each time that thing is so far away .2 is interesting in a clipper not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Mid levels bomb much earlier, so isnt that sort of consistent With opening up of system later well then the fears of blowing its load early may be right, and thats what screws us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: I just think it's funny that the weeniesm has moved from QPF to H5. Back in the day nuke meant huge QPF and pretty clown maps but now people are weenieing out over midlevel features more. A weenie renaissance. Good storm coming folks. Some people don’t like change and have trouble adapting to new ideas or ways of thinking. I think queens can be lumped into that category Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wait a minute. thats maybe .3 to CON after a descripition of the run that would indicate it was coming way west. Thats not weenies being weenies. Something weird about this whole system/setup. It also depends on where you are. There will still be a sharp cutoff, so for some off to the W and NW by a significant margin, it means paltry QPF still. I think what some of us are stating is that the area on the fence near HFD through CON or so could be happier than currently depicted. Maybe further west a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well then the fears of blowing its load early may be right, and thats what screws us. Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We seem to be spending a lot of time worrying about western New England... this story is still the wind and snow in eastern New England. It looks like an awesome storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Great. Now in addition to all the other ways we can get screwed out of a big hit, we have “the storm was too strong to produce”. Geez Step back from the ledge! You're in a GREAT spot for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I would be very surprised if the EPS isn't wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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