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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

This is going to be fun, On mobile so quite limited but reading some of the post models are heading in the right direction, Good to see the trough being a bit west, We talked about that yesterday as one way of getting this closer the coast.

Pacific ridge and the trough have trended better

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Just now, WintersComing said:

Pacific ridge and the trough have trended better

Ea run yesterday into last night you could see heights increasing out in the PAC into Canada, Have not looked at much today but I see it’s continuing so far so that a positive for the folks out west to hang there hat on, As long as we continue seeing these improvements.

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There is going to be big cut off points with this storm.  I could see 3-6" or 4-8" in western Mass and 12-16" in the Providence -Boston corridor.

Hope not.  That weenie NAM run with its 22" at GYX was encouraging, but some past events noted below warrant caution for my area

                    GYX     Farmington co-op
12/25-26/02  18.0"     1.0"   Most insane cutoff I've seen.  8" just 10 miles to my SE.
3/11-13/05    14.8"    4.0"
1/14/2008     15.0"     5.5"
2/8-10/13     26.8"    10.6"   GYX' biggest
2/15-16/17   11.6"      5.1"   12-16" forecast for Farmington 18 hr before 1st flakes, dropped to 6-10" next shift.
3/31-4/1/17  14.0"     3.8"

It's gone the other way, too, but generally due to p-type, while the GYX "wins" are almost always qpf-based.  I'm hoping the vast extent of this upcoming storm mitigates against a super sharp cutoff.
 

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