TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET is west Writing is on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET is west Tell more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 still yet another philosophy in how to look at this ... if that NAM/RGEM solution is correct ... er ...that would have to be a pretty substantial bust for the ECMWF folks. I mean, it wouldn't fairly be a catastrophic bust because the Euro hasn't been a noshow either... But, you're talking 3-6" pedestrian amts with some annoying wind, versus high impact short duration blizzard with more than a foot ... I was also just looking more at Maine and wow does the NAM spare no one up there... That's like 15 straight hours of 3"/hr rates on average in that synoptic look up that way. so,... the NAM is 15 to 30" from S-N through NE ... E of the Tollan... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It starts snowing tomorrow night Sorry, I meant to say the day of the storm. Just like the Christmas day snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM bufkit numbers BAF 14.8,ORH 17.1, BED 21.0 ,BDL 16.4 ,CON 20.2 ,Bos 23.4, GYX 22.3 ,MPV 9.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Was following GFS at 500 as it trickled in....when the hour 45 panel showed up my thought was "It's coming." The orientation was better, the heights out front were better, etc. Then by hour 51/54 it just gets kicked east and the result is the same. Glancing blow. Very frustrating. But still a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Was following GFS at 500 as it trickled in....when the hour 45 panel showed up my thought was "It's coming." The orientation was better, the heights out front were better, etc. Then by hour 51/54 it just gets kicked east and the result is the same. Glancing blow. Very frustrating. But still a step in the right direction. Thats exactly Where we want that garbage model right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm always taking the under on interior wind during winter storms. This could plow through the canal and I'd be meh on interior winds. Just so difficult to verify a blizzard in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Was following GFS at 500 as it trickled in....when the hour 45 panel showed up my thought was "It's coming." The orientation was better, the heights out front were better, etc. Then by hour 51/54 it just gets kicked east and the result is the same. Glancing blow. Very frustrating. But still a step in the right direction. You wonder when NCEP Is going to realize the GFS has to be scrapped. I keep hearing of a new model replacing it but last I was told it was delayed til 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM bufkit numbers BAF 14.8,ORH 17.1, BED 21.0 ,BDL 16.4 ,CON 20.2 ,Bos 23.4, GYX 22.3 ,MPV 9.0 Can you provide TAN & PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The gfs plays an invaluable role to use in blends...for those who like to start conservative. ...wonder if this was designed on Purpose lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM bufkit numbers BAF 14.8,ORH 17.1, BED 21.0 ,BDL 16.4 ,CON 20.2 ,Bos 23.4, GYX 22.3 ,MPV 9.0 Do you have ORE and AQW? Oh to be at Pit2....... 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You wonder when NCEP Is going to realize the GFS has to be scrapped. I keep hearing of a new model replacing it but last I was told it was delayed til 2021 Well, we hear the same of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Where so you guys think the goal posts are (say two sigma) 69/39 and the canalish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The NAM bufkit numbers are pretty aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Where so you guys think the goal posts are (say two sigma) 69/39 and the canalish? Id move that east a tad. Maybe elbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, Greg said: GFS Probably won't really catch up until 36 hours before go time. You mean AFTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Anyone posting UKIE (maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Do you have ORE and AQW? Oh to be at Pit2....... Well, we hear the same of the NAM. You can live pit2 thru me here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, MarkO said: Where so you guys think the goal posts are (say two sigma) 69/39 and the canalish? I don't see the center of the storm going up the CC canal. This will stay an offshore storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Do you have ORE and AQW? Oh to be at Pit2....... Well, we hear the same of the NAM. The NAM replacement I think is closer and I believe it’s going to be an ensemble system similar to the SREF. At least last I was told about 18 months ago that was the case that it wouldn’t be replaced by a singular model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: You mean AFTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anyone posting UKIE (maps) Don't see it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Was following GFS at 500 as it trickled in....when the hour 45 panel showed up my thought was "It's coming." The orientation was better, the heights out front were better, etc. Then by hour 51/54 it just gets kicked east and the result is the same. Glancing blow. Very frustrating. But still a step in the right direction. IMO, the ots/graze fears should be allayed at this point. We have narrowed the goal posts significantly already today and that is exclusively on the east side. I think we have to understand that the SLP track during that time frame depends on a multitude of factors. The easier to resolve aspects moved markedly in favor of a track closer to the coast. The opening up at h500 at said hrs is what spoiled some of the improvement in terms of sensible weather outcomes. This aspect is highly uncertain though, and could change several more times (in either direction) into go time... A track with significant impacts in the northeast is no longer tenuous imo. We are not hanging our hats on "deeper convection" or "a better phase". The whole longwave setup and shortwave development (both streams) has improved across guidance. I don't think we can ask for much more at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Looks like you viewing UKIE maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Was following GFS at 500 as it trickled in....when the hour 45 panel showed up my thought was "It's coming." The orientation was better, the heights out front were better, etc. Then by hour 51/54 it just gets kicked east and the result is the same. Glancing blow. Very frustrating. But still a step in the right direction. i smiled when I saw that exact sort of evolution/interpretation ... it's like come hell or high water, it won't admit it - hahaha. it's probably going to fight tooth and nail, conceding in inches every cycle.. It's still 60 hours away, but it's only 30 hours from taking shape. I find it interesting that the consternation also begins when ? 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC upper air also looks better early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Confidence is beginning to sore for west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Confidence is beginning to sore for west of the river. Think you are gonna be just fine. Thinking 4-8 western half, 6-12 east. You may also see the death band setup as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Confidence is beginning to sore for west of the river. Yesterday it was sore. Today it soars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The possible difficulties among the global models and big differences with the mesoscale models may well be the result of a complex phasing situation with which the guidance has noted difficulty in the medium range. From Kocin, Uccellini et al. on the December 2010 Boxing Day blizzard: The entire suite of European, Canadian and U.S. models didn’t converge on the correct forecast scenario until 36 to 48 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow, generally late on the 24th through early on the 25th. Furthermore, the significant model differences on 24 December 2010 contributed to forecaster uncertainty... It wasn’t until the 1200 UTC 25 December model cycles that all the models converged on a solution that put New York City squarely in the area of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions on 26 December... ...we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event. These phasing characteristics are a marker for La Nina patterns which existed for the Winter 2010/2011, which are known to be particularly difficult to forecast with certainty in the medium range. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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