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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The possible difficulties among the global models and big differences with the mesoscale models may well be the result of a complex phasing situation with which the guidance has noted difficulty in the medium range. From Kocin, Uccellini et al. on the December 2010 Boxing Day blizzard:

The entire suite of European, Canadian and U.S. models didn’t converge on the correct forecast scenario until 36 to 48 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow, generally late on the 24th through early on the 25th.  Furthermore, the significant model differences on 24 December 2010 contributed to forecaster uncertainty...  It wasn’t until the 1200 UTC 25 December model cycles that all the models converged on a solution that put New York City squarely in the area of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions on 26 December...

...we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event.  These phasing characteristics are a marker for La Nina patterns which existed for the Winter 2010/2011, which are known to be particularly difficult to forecast with certainty in the medium range.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf

nice find!

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https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/948231033014669312

@NWSBoston [THURSDAY] Confidence increasing for a significant winter storm with snow, strong winds and coastal flooding. Greatest uncertainty remains on how far west the heavy snow gets into interior #SNE along with positioning of rain/snow line across southeast New England.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. 

Reassuring for BOS peeps to see CF nearby. Just think about boxing day.

Shouldn't be a disaster like that was for many, though.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. 

That lift map that was posted earlier brought back memories of March '13 in RI. Just west of that intense fronto it looked iffy.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078>081-030045-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.180104T0500Z-180105T0500Z/
Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including the morning and evening commute on Thursday. Total
  snow accumulations of 6 or more inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and Suffolk County on
  Long Island.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph are
  possible. This may result in blowing and drifting of snow.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
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