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About WxBlue

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    Dover, NH

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  1. Still think we can finish the month below normal with post-Thanksgiving trough coming up before finishing November with few days in 50s for coastal areas of SNE.
  2. Definitely some agreement between seasonal forecasters this year and they're backing it up with lot of research. I try to not invest into seasonal forecasts, especially if they're on the extreme side, but I understand that there are skill into doing them. I do have to vouch for DT's skill as a medium-range forecaster for big events in our backyard (North Carolina/Virginia) so we'll have to see if he's right about this upcoming winter. I haven't seen 40/70's outlook yet so I'll give it a read tonight.
  3. Good ol' DT released his winter outlook
  4. Wow, that's crazy! Drop city for me too. I was 4 hours from landing onto top 10 during Day 5 :\
  5. I've noticed few NNE snow events popping up inside 3-4 days with NAM leading the way in recent weeks. Once the climatology allow for us to get cold enough, I have a feeling we'll have some fun here. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an event sneaking into short-term around here to end this month.
  6. I'd rather have the "calm" pattern behave like ensembles are showing in early December than late December or January. I just hope we can get a little more meridional flow going soon, but that might be hard to get in a La Nina pattern. I'm used to not expecting snow before January 1st so I'm good here
  7. We also would be fully adjusted to winter temps by March so it'd feel a lot warmer too. Going from 80s to 50s would make it feel cold, but going from 20s to 50s would make it feel incredible.
  8. Same here. They're also hard to call out when they're wrong because long-range stuff is not easy to verify due to vagueness and the fact all of us have short attention span. I don't have the energy to track smaller features and following "rules" for two weeks until it's go time and they're already talking about the next thing by the time we're finally at present time. I'm happy with ensembles up to 7 days out, checking oscillations, and reading posts from some of our long-range guys on here who are using proven methods.
  9. and ECMWF data is not cheap.
  10. This should take you to the main page: http://wx.graphics/ I should warn you that it's still under construction and Maue is still adding stuff to it everyday. Give him few months and he'll make it better than what it was on WxBell.
  11. Nope. Ryan Maue, the site developer, believe that everyone should have free access to higher-resolution ECMWF.
  12. Same guy who coded that map left WxBell (the company with paywall model page looking like that) and created his own website under a similar format: wx.graphics You can find his ECMWF page here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php LOL I might have to start using that more.
  13. My knowledge level isn't up there with other mets yet, especially local climatology and geography, but I'm hoping to offer more inputs once I feel more confident. It's a bit weird for me. I'm also in NNE, but my town's weather behave more like a colder version of SNE weather at this time of year since I'm so close to the coast.
  14. I wouldn't mind a warm Thanksgiving TBH. Easier to travel back to NC and I could use one last burst of warmth in the South before deep winter get here. Awesome stuff! I used to have a view like this everyday in Asheville and I miss that.