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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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10 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Northern Hemisphere pattern to the Pole is really ripe right now. Nice flow of waves, in balance with good things I think. This means the 7-14 day period could be more organic with higher snow chances. There is nice oversight right now 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Bring the cold and snow on, I think we deserve March to be cold and stormy since February was suppose to be a winter month and has been quite balmy.  Bring it on.,,,,,:snowwindow::snowing:

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58 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

You guys better hope beyond hope e10 is right. Lot of Southern storms showing up on the GEFS for sure

gefs_snow_ens_ma_65.thumb.png.946044ff41b02c82bd2378560177241a.png

Just about every one of those images sucks.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Just about every one of those images sucks.

It does for us for sure. Take comfort in the fact that they will all look totally different in about 2 hours from now.;)

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3 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

An argument could be made that we have a better chance of winning the lottery than any of those fantasy maps happening.

So you're telling me there's a chance.

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And DT chimes in 40 min ago:

** ALERT**  Massive changes in  overnight models now  FAVOR    late  season   SIGNIFICANT  winter storm  Midwest  &  East coast in the MARCH 5-7  time frame.  And NO  these changes in the models  were  NOT  there  Yesterday..over the past weekend  ..or last week.

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1 hour ago, PGAWx said:

And DT chimes in 40 min ago:

** ALERT**  Massive changes in  overnight models now  FAVOR    late  season   SIGNIFICANT  winter storm  Midwest  &  East coast in the MARCH 5-7  time frame.  And NO  these changes in the models  were  NOT  there  Yesterday..over the past weekend  ..or last week.

who's DT ?

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9 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Let me start a pot of coffee.  Just kidding.  Private met in Richmond.  

Dave Tolleris

Runs Weather Risk

TW

Yeah the guy that loves to bust on Bastardi, yet JB brought out the Ash Wednesday storm analog days ago before DT even sniffed it.

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-PNA on long range models is a signal that doesn't go away, it's so far southwest and strong. The models may be having feedback issues with -NAO picking up a blocking signal that's really over the Pacific. Stratosphere warming downwelled to -NAO could happen and probably will, but much later than models have right now at 168-240hrs

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9 hours ago, PGAWx said:

And DT chimes in 40 min ago:

** ALERT**  Massive changes in  overnight models now  FAVOR    late  season   SIGNIFICANT  winter storm  Midwest  &  East coast in the MARCH 5-7  time frame.  And NO  these changes in the models  were  NOT  there  Yesterday..over the past weekend  ..or last week.

3

or tomorrow

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM at mid day Friday(GFS keeps the cooler air in VA):

 

aaaa.jpg

Looked at that this am as I will be in Asheville this weekend. NAM has been consistent with that temp profile. Should be a nice weekend.

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